IWXwx

I noticed that for Indiana, the seven day moving average death rate dropped to 4 yesterday. That is the lowest moving average since 3/25/2020 when the pandemic really started to take off. Now cases have been creeping back up, but I really like that the death rate is at 4 a day and still dropping.

IND continues to set records: RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 721 AM EDT WED APR 21 2021 ...RECORD LOW AT INDIANAPOLIS THIS MORNING... A RECORD LOW OF 26 OCCURRED AT INDIANAPOLIS EARLY THIS MORNING... APRIL 21ST. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD LOW OF 28 DEGREES SET ON THIS DATE IN 1907.

Finished with 4.1" from 0.49" liquid. One of the IWX mets nailed it a few days when he said that it was shaping up to be a one in 50 or 100 year event.

Guys, save your breath. I already responded to him earlier and he blew me off. Might have something to do with relocating from the south to IND. The laughable thing to me is that sometime in the future, ALL advisories are going away.

FWA is obliterating their record snowfall for the date (0.2"-1953). 2.4" at 7:00 (Eastern) and still getting heavy snow.

Pound town. 3.6" and still falling. Top 3 event. Seriously.

Yes, but it certainly would be less deadly if a higher percentage of people just get the vaccine. I do understand and agree with what you are saying though.

With all of the talk of herd immunity, I don't think we'll ever get there, based on local vaccination numbers. Although I live in a rural county, I believe we are a microcosm of vast rural areas of the US as a whole. As of yesterday, 31% of our population age 18+ have been fully vaccinated. Our local shot clinic operated by the County health department can vaccinate ~400 individuals a day. This is in addition to three other pharmacies providing vaccinations. The good news is that 79% of those 65 and older have been vaccinated. However, starting this week, the reservation numbers have dropped dramatically, to the point of shutting down the clinic this Thursday due to lack of reservations (not completely, just for that day.) At this rate, I'm estimating that only a little over 50% of the 18+ age group will be vaccinated by July 1st. Without some emphasis being placed on reducing vaccine hesitancy, this may become the Vietnam of pandemic battles.

Expecting 3" here overnight. I'm sure that after my 7AM CoCoRaHS measurement, it will quickly disappear. However, I am looking forward to the possibility of getting some thunder graupel on Wednesday.

3"-5" is the official criteria for a snow advisory at IND. However, an advisory is something that is flexible, unlike a warning. It is more at the discretion of the forecaster based on impacts. For example, a 2" snow in November might warrant an advisory, based on being the first possibility of slick roads for the season. In this case, even if 3" falls, they may take into consideration warm pavement temps and not expecting hazardous road conditions to not issue an advisory.

I actually egged that on, as she is a friend of mine. She, like me, loves gardening and is a heat miser. The other day she posted on her FB page, "The forecast is officially disgusting the next week. That is all." I teased her by saying it would make a good Long Term AFD. So for the past two days since she has been working the forecast desk, she has been playing it up in her discussions. As far as the Gordon Lightfoot reference, she grew up in Michigan and is a big promoter of boating and rip current safety on Lake Michigan. I cheer the models on all winter hoping to bullseye, then when mid-April comes and I switch into mushroom hunting, fishing, and gardening mode, I cheer the models on for a miss to the north, so I agree with her not wanting snow at the end of April.

IWX is indeed all in: SPC UPPER AIR SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, CIPS ANALOGS AND GEFS M-CLIMATE RETURN INTERVAL ALL SUPPORT AN EVENT THAT MAY POSSIBLY BE CLASSIFIED AS A 50 YEAR OR 100 YEAR EVENT. A VERY STRONG ANOMALOUS SIGNAL WILL SET UP TUESDAY. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT MODEL BLEND GUIDANCE GIVEN DIABATIC PROCESSES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. THE ECMWF WHICH IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN MOST OTHERS, REALLY BURIES NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 6" TO 10" OF SNOW. THE 2-DAY RECORD SNOWFALL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF APRIL IS 9.9" IN 1961. CURRENT THINKING IS 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NW INDIANA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST.

Figures it's gonna happen on 4/20. Will freak the stoners out.

I'm glad the ensembles have been showing this, because the GFS operational had previously been depicting below normal temps right on through the end of its run.

Those numbers will most likely be a little different when the 1990-2020 numbers are officially released. Ricky might be able to be more specific, but they do some blending and modifying for the final output. I got my hands on a PowerPoint with the technical explanation on arriving at the new normals, but I don't have access to it right now. I'll throw up a link when I get into the office on Tuesday in case anyone is interested.

Made me look

If you live in Carmel, I can only imagine what housing prices are in that area, being by far the wealthiest community in Indiana. Even out here in the sticks, houses are selling like hotcakes at prices exceeding the asking.

From the multiple studies I've read, the gym is not a high risk location for spread IF they strictly adhere to distancing and masks mandates. Otherwise, it's a free-for-all.

Sad. SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 2319Z FRI APR 09 2021 ...NWSCHAT OUTAGE / USAGE OF CHAT DURING CRITICAL WEATHER DAY... NCO IS CURRENTLY CONFIRMING THE HEALTH OF NWSCHAT SERVICES AFTER A RECENT OUTAGE. AS A REMINDER, IF USERS ARE NOT SEEING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PLEASE LIMIT NWSCHAT LOGINS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. IF IT IS A QUIET WEATHER DAY..ONLY ONE PERSON FROM THE OFFICE LOGGED IN TO RESPOND TO PARTNER REQUESTS. ALSO WE WOULD REQUEST THAT PARTNERS DO THE SAME. WITH YOUR HELP WE CAN KEEP NWSCHAT STABLE THROUGHOUT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THANK YOU FOR YOUR COOPERATION.

I cut the grass for the first time on Sunday. It already needs it again. Welcome to spring.

RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 500 PM EST WED APR 07 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT FORT WAYNE... THROUGH 500 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON, THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT FORT WAYNE IS 81 DEGREES. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 81 SET IN 1929 AND 1954.

LOL at this morning's IND discussion: THE LAST PIECE OF THE PUZZLE IS ON HOW WARM TEMPS WILL BECOME. DRY PARCELS TEND TO GET MORE EXCITED AND RAPIDLY WARM TEMPS LIKE BEING OVERCAFFEINATED, THAT'S NOT GOING TO BE THE CASE TODAY. WITH MOISTENING PARCELS THEY TEND TO BE LESS EXCITED ABOUT WARMING, AND NEEDING MORE COFFEE TO GET MOTIVATED IN REALIZING THEIR POTENTIAL. EDIT: ....And IWX: AFTER RAIN ENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY, CONFIDENCE IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK IS BELOW AVERAGE GIVEN A VERY DISCOMBOBULATED UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH THE GFS COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH THE ECMWF. I love these technical explanations

I want to take a minute and thank Hoosier for allowing this thread to keep going. He has caught a lot of flack, even though he has done an admirable job of trying to keep everyone in check (including me.) I have not only learned a ton of information about COVID and viruses in general, but the many different viewpoints concerning all aspects of the pandemic. There is an undercurrent of politics involved being masked as scientific data. Thanks to everyone for offering their viewpoints and information, even amongst the flame throwing.

I feel like the "vaccine passport" would be a waste of time. I remember getting a fake ID 45 years ago so I could go into a bar. Any anti-vaxer that wants to travel could easily do the same thing.