mitchnick

Gfs is 6"+ for N MD and PA

Hey @TSSN+

I feel like a new man knowing the Srefs are getting on-board. Giddy up!

I like the Eps better. Decently below freezing 850's and a swath of snow seemingly headed right for us.

Surface looks mundane...

Hey, I'm nearly right smack in the middle of the lighter square in south central PA/MD border to the SW of #46. I'll take it.

Canadian ensembles

Hanover

Entire Eps run droolworthy.

It's been bullish for Tuesday almost from the start. We'll know in a few days if it should be belived in the future.

Yep, pigs get slaughtered.

I knew I had seen the surface maps showing surface Highs moving off the coast to our east and NE. I found it. Looks like we may hve to get used to it for the winter if the Euro seasonal is correct. The link below is for the period of Dec-Feb. If you scroll forward to J-M, it's even stronger. As long as we get better cold into the area, we should still have our shots at snow. Next week's problem is only being 3-4 degrees too warm, which is more a function of the early season. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_mslp?area=NAME&base_time=202511010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202512020000

I'm interested is seeing whether the Euro's snowy start to the run will continue to the end as it often seems to do.

Pivotal Kuchera

Filet-of-sole...and heel!

Your head should be in good shape then!

Yesterday's PV forecast has it impotent thru early January again.

I'm having some serious doubts for mby. I need a cooling trend to start if not today, definitely by tomorrow.

Seems a wee bit aggressive for so early in the season in light of the se'ly flow.

I mistakenly loaded the Euro AI totals for the 360hr run, so I deleted it. Here are the 0z and 6z for just Tuesday.

6z Euro and Eps

Just gunna' post this! Certainly, best case.

Climo is always a viable option forecast at 4-5 days. It may be right, but it may be wrong. It's too early on this one. I will say that I'd love to see this a hit along the lines of the Euro 12z because I'm a firm believer that the first threat event gives a strong hint at the winter's seasonal pattern.

Typical for 4 days out.