TheDreamTraveler

Already 61 today. Another beautiful autumn day

We already had trick or treat here on thursday since this area always does it on the last thursday which imo I think is kinda dumb and should just be done on actual Halloween but that's how it was for me as a kid too. There were a ton of people here way more than I had expected.

If you count all the following warm days 9 out of 31 days of October would be between 76-83 degrees and 12 days 70 or above for my town and similar for other areas nearby. That seems excessive to have so many days that warm in October. And what's crazier is there was a stretch of warmth in both the beginning and end of October which makes it more impressive. The next 3 days are going to be close or full on record breaking. The thing that makes this crazier is the fact this warmth lasts for days. It's normal to have 1 or 2 days get very warm around this time once in a while but when this happens now it happens for longer periods of time.

This really was like we went back in time with weather forecasting. This is how these powerful canes used to hit, with barely any warning. I'm really afraid the death toll is going to be very bad especially since this was a city. The use of the term nightmare scenario was 100% warranted here. I can't remember anything that has occurred like this in recent decades.

Trick or Treat is on Thursday here and it'll be close to 80 degrees. I can barely remember a single time as a kid when it was that warm. It was usually always pretty chilly but there were one or two times it wasn't that bad out...just not 80 degrees lol. Gonna feel bad for any kids who are wearing a heavy duty costume

Something I noticed was that the spotted lantern flies were not as bad this year as they were the year before. I was reading this article about how after the third year the population plummets. I wonder if it's due to their absurd numbers they just eat up the available food source which prevents as many appearing the years after? Certain trees here were covered in them but I didn't notice them as much this fall. Also I think the lantern flies are responsible for certain other insects being plentiful this year like wasps/hornets etc since those things not only eat the bodies of them but also eat the honeydew they produce. Definitely can't be a coincidence wasps exploded in numbers the season after we had so many lantern flies

We've never experienced this type of eruption in our recorded history so we're basically in uncharted territory in terms of what the long term effects could be. No analogs exist

Seriously not a fan of this heat right now. I took my AC out because I didn't think it'd get this hot again lmao especially since the part of the house I have my computer heats up like a mfer in the afternoon due to the sun angle. Also doesn't help how much heat my PC outputs since it's a gaming pc I built. It's actually crazy how much heat that adds to the room it's in. Does make it nice in the winter though

A moderate El Nino is all but a guarantee this winter for sure. The thing is not all El Ninos and La Ninas are created equally. So I'm curious how this one will be for us. I'm just very nervous about a lot of the stuff I'm currently seeing. I did talk about how I think we might be leaving that period of some of the biggest snowstorms we've ever seen in such a short period of time which would suck for a lot of us if that ends up happening. Not that it won't keep happening but the frequency might be shortening. Obviously I don't want to be pessimistic but I'm just trying to be realistic lol the main reason I ever joined easternwx and this site was specifically due to huge snowstorms.

I'm really surprised the NASA study about Hunga Tonga's eruption adding 10% of the entire worlds water vapor high into the stratosphere doesn't get mentioned more. The study even states that the water vapor will spike the global temperature, we just don't know by exactly how much. The added water vapor will also take 5-10 years to fully dissipate so that is definitely helping with what's happening combined with features like El Nino etc. Remember no volcano in our records has ever ejected such high amounts of water vapor like this one did and NASA calls its effects unprecedented. Tonga was also the most powerful eruption since the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa. People forget that there is a lag period with volcanic eruptions and the effects are not truly felt until 1-3 years later depending on variability's. If you all remember Mt Pinatubo in 1991 it took 2 years for its effects to fully be realized. Around June when the warmth really spiked was around the time all of Hunga Tonga's water vapor had completely encircled the globe since it took 1.5 years for it to completely spread.

Really wondering what's going to happen for winter this season. The El Nino is not acting like a typical El Nino which is evident by the very active atlantic hurricane season. And it's not just the amount of storms formed but how many powerful long lasting storms have formed. Very unusual given the setup. Another thing to note is the absurd warming that started this summer in June and has been continuing into October with no signs of reverting. I saw a tweet discussing how the warmth occurring this summer is extraordinary because we usually see this type of extreme warming in the winter, not summer, because winters warm much more than summers do. Right now this heat occurring is almost off the charts which is most likely a combination of human induced climate change, Hunga Tonga and the El Nino all colliding at once among other smaller factors. If we end up having another snowless winter I'm going to be a bit concerned lol

Not a fan of the upcoming heat. Good news is after this heat is over we should go straight to sunny days in the 60s...hopefully lol. This better not be another October where it's ungodly hot the first half and then cold the second half

Well it's not the publication but the paper they're reporting on. I do agree with some publications and people having their own agendas but saying that and then linking fox news is some ironic stuff lol. I don't really trust any mainstream media and even media that looks independent online has a ton of money being funneled in from specific groups or people. The full paper does exist out there to read in its entirety without interference from publications like this. I just went out found a publication to make it easier to show you guys what the paper was about lol

Since we're talking about climate change and its effects I'd like to present to you all some very interesting information that recently came out. Apparently all the insane warming we've been experiencing might not be solely caused by humans but rather by massive influxes of methane coming from the tropics since 2006. Humans are still contributing to the warming and the paper that presents this information even said we don't fully know if this methane issue is the main cause due to the fact we still don't understand why this process is happening. I'm also bad at explaining things so I'll post some information you can all read. It's interesting. Just please don't take this as full proof that humans aren't the main cause. We still don't fully understand everything that is happening. This would help explain why warming has gone off the rails compared to pre-2000 levels https://www.space.com/climate-change-termination-event-end-ice-age

Idalia might not have even been a major when it made landfall. It was one of the most hyped up storms I've seen in years that did way less damage than what was forecast due to it rapidly weakening hours before landfall. There really wasn't any widespread catastrophic damage to warrant it being retired. It also helped it hit one of the least populated areas of Florida. I'd be surprised if it got retired.

I've noticed that happen around here multiple times in the summer. It's very odd. One summer night had a steady rain and there was literally nothing over us lol

One thing to take away from this is how shitty the Euro has been. It completely fumbled this storm and isn't the first tropical track it screwed up on. It's been very bad as far as the tropics is concerned. The GFS has been performing much better. Wondering how much of that will apply going into winter.

Starting to get a bit breezy. Wasn't expecting that so soon

If Ophelia had more time over water this would have been a decently sized hurricane imo.

I know some people hate it when it's rainy and dreary all day but it's pretty relaxing for me so I hope it's just a nice moderate rain the entire duration. There's just something about falling asleep to a nice steady rain that's relaxing af lol

0z Euro is very similar in taking that STS/TS into our area now. First run where it's actually in line with the GFS

Beautiful night. Finally feels like September

What's even funnier with that run there's a hurricane right behind that other one lmao

My favorite part so far is seeing all the people that 100% confirmed the storm was OTS 10 days before the storm hits are finally caving in to it potentially hitting now lmao

00z GFS is looking very similar to 18z. Has Lee taking a left hook into New England