Heisy

Yea, we're gonna be worried about mix with this thing before the end. Hopefully the kicker can help

18z control closing this thing off now, yikes. I fully expect a GFS cave job tonight

The fact that the NAM has the Anafrontal snow but it's setup at end of run is bad tells me to root against the Anafront event.

This. Talked about it earlier regarding the 12z rgem. Other factors, but this is a biggie imo

12z rgem looks decent at end of run. Could see the cmc show a hit today. That Texas energy is important it seems to partially phase with main shortwave and slows it down allowing it to turn corner

I've been on over 10 chases and last night was the first mistake I ever made. I couldn't leave Saturday night so I had to leave yesterday morning (from Philly to Erie). With all the errands I made in the AM I didn't leave until roughly 10-11. Instead of taking the NE extension then west I jumped right on the turnpike not even thinking what could happen. Made it a little past Harrisburg when it started to snow. We drove hours in blinding heavy snow before giving up right around NE of Pitt. I was so drained and exhausted from tracking and driving I couldn't take it anymore. We had about 100 miles to Erie at 15-30 mph at 9pm so enough was enough. Any reports up there? Before I went to bed it did seem west and east of Erie was getting hammered.

I'm in the car now doing last second errands, headed to Erie PA. Really hoping to exceed 20 inches with les combined. Winds should be good too. Hopefully get hit hard and then come home and track a Philly hit!

That's where I'm headed! Psyched

Hey all, after a lot of consideration I've moved my chase location to Erie pa. Just want to apologize in advance to my Pitt crew for bringing the bad mojo haha. When I went to met school in Cal U PA Pitt saw some of its lowest snow seasons ever lol. Expect a huge shift somewhere on the 12z models as I'm on the turnpike from Philly haha. In all seriousness. This should be a fun event. Gl all

It's amazing how similar this setup is to tomorrow's event. We benefit this time from the main wave not being as wrapped up as early, but that kicker could play a role either way. Like tomorrow's event it could end up phasing and pulling it west or help kick it east. Love the potential though. Anyway, I'm packed up and headed to Niagra Falls tomorrow morning. Peace weenies

Alright, bags packed, just need to change a tire tomorrow morning, but then it is off to the races, problem is I haven't decided Niagra falls or near Dunkirk NY, looking for highest possible total LES included. Going with the girl so Niagra falls gets bonus points, but any suggestions

Looks like Niagra falls region is where I’ll be staying. Can’t leave until tomorrow morning, about a 6 hour drive, but hopefully I can beat out the snow. Need to grab new tires and get an oil change and then we’re out. Really hoping to pull 18+, it’ll be close I think. I’m just as excited for the few hours of dumpage from that deform band before it lifts out. I told myself During the summer that I would chase towards the lakes this winter, didn’t realize it would be a synoptic event. Question, what kind of snow cover does region currently have?

I have weatherbell, 6z euro doesn’t run until 6:45 I thought, I’ll check

This morning the plan was Rochester, but now I'm thinking of headed towards Niagra Falls. Though, if I see more NW ticks I'll just stay home. Really want to get into that deformation/ccb zone as long as possible. Reminds me when I chased to Lewisburg pa last year for the Dec storm. I got mix/dry slotted during the height while just north of me saw 2 feet. Well see what happens

That vort was close to going ape though. Probably cmc doing cmc things, at least theres something new showing up

Headed to Rochester sunday morning

This is total including pre LES

6z euro

Hey all, I'm going to be chasing this thing from Philly. I know it's very early but I'll be coming back for some spot recommendations, it does look like itll be somewhere between Erie PA and W NY. The speed of this thing might hurt, but I do think 20 inches or greater will be hit by someone in W NY

I despise these storms. I'll probably be somewhere between Pitt and buffalo, could change of course, hoping it's more of a BGM chase

I dont know, this feels like the upgraded OP handling things well and lower resolution GEFS struggling like old times. Anyone remember the GEFS and Dec 16/17 last year? Pepperidge farms remembers...I'm always wrong though. I'm just hoping theres someone who gets 2 feet on the models as we get closer because I plan to chase

On top of the 6z and eps, Check out the 6z euro control...was about to destroy DC Can the GFS win again?!

Wat

Yes but it doesnt start running until like 7:45, it's out to like 36 hours or so right now