Heisy

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GFS and Euro still worlds apart around Day 5 with how they handle the PAC energy. .

Certainly a possibility, not arguing the potential isn’t there. My whole point was basically stating why the snow mean on the EPS favors Ne and Canada at the moment. This 12z suite put all its eggs in the lead wave. .

One for the ages. I failed photoshop class, while you obviously earned honors. Im still right though! Verbatim it’s not an ideal look for the Mid-Atlantic, yet… key word, yet. If we see changes on upcoming OP/EPS runs that make positive steps to a better winter storm I’ll be the first one on board… Spot the difference

Yea, but the lead isn’t. What we’re seeing is the pattern change and not necessarily a good storm threat because of the lead in. We’ll see what happens, we’re all rooting for the same thing. .

My point illustrated like a 6 year old….. we need better push from “X” to allow more spacing for “L” because of the ridge linkup leading into the event. 12z run yesterday did this. Todays eps favors snow in NE and lakes because of the spacing issue between X and L here… long way to change this and allow better amplification for backside low… .

…and this is exactly what I mean… .

I’ll be in the minority here and don’t want to get flamed, but I just don’t agree. It kind of looks like a smoothed out version of the OP. The lead up to that wave still has too much Ridge link up that’s why the lead wave on all the OP models and ensembles favors snow into the Midwest and lakes. The only hope is for a low to develop on the backside of that trough, a miller B. Looks like EPS does that but mostly favors NE. Not trying to be negative. We’re still far out I just think the devil is in the details here… .

Fun way to fail on the euro today. Hard to buy euro at all considering other models not bringing energy eastward. .

This likely won’t “cut” it, actually it will probably cut lol, this winter lol .

This was possibly a trend towards GFS Here is 18z control vs 12z… posting control because it generally follows the OP Can see the difference in western energy and the EPS confirms it. Not saying it’s like GFS yet but a clear step. Onto 00z .

Looks like the western trough ticked W at 90hrs on 18z Euro, ensemble/control rolling now. .

I know we’re speaking 10 days out but this is an absolutely huge difference for a mean. Like Brooklyn said we need a few days to shake things out. Just hope at this point… .

I probably have PTSD from the next event upcoming. I realize GEFS ensemble will almost always follow OP, but I really really want to see a fast reversal by 12z tomorrow. .

Awesome, looks like GEFS went towards the OP, this winter… .

Euro at least has some support with Canadian, JMA, ensembles etc. just the way this winter works the least favorable model ends up always winning. Can we get lucky just one time? .

I compared wrong hours my bad… just a little different… .

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GFS still much different vs euro and Canadian with the pac energy. Going to take a few more days for models to start to agree on how that energy comes east. .

Control always follows the OP to an extent. Idk the science behind it exactly. It’s lower resolution so smooths things out a bit. It probably wouldn’t be as good at picking up CAD etc. Need a met. to explain, just basing this on observation. Not that it matters at all, but I do think the OP would have probably gone inland a bit, but would have def had a lot of WAA snows ahead of the low. We’re 10-12 days out, models still figuring out how that Pac energy will progress east. We have the overall indexes on our side so at this point all we can do is hope. By end of weekend hopefully we have a legit threat to track. .

Maybe digging a little too fast this run, but holy moly. EPS will probably go bonkers this run with an op run like this .

30 year anniversary, oof .

Agreed, i think 14-16th period looks fantastic, my Negativity today was more towards this 10-11th range where we saw the euro yesterday blow up an event because it ejected the energy out west faster. Tonight GFS still not pushing energy along. Canadian does but it’s kind of sloppy. GFS still looks solid as we move beyond the 11th… .

Right now I’m not buying the potential around the 10-11th after today’s runs. You want to sell me 15-17th, that has more legs because the cold def looks to be established by then, but that’s even more in fantasy land. Just seeing too much of a push towards burying the energy out west and delaying any transfer. I’d imagine we’ll see EPS go that direction tonight. Hope I’m wrong :/ 18z snow mean is horrid through 360 hours, but that’s to be expected since the OP didn’t really manage anything until the big one at the very end of the run

I’m with you Ralph, the snow mean also favors cutters. There are some hits mixed in but once again….you guys are the pros and a lot smarter than me. I’m just a weenie. I was hyped after I saw yesterday’s 12z run, but something isn’t sitting right with me after todays 12z runs. I’m not all giddy like a few others .