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Heisy

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  1. Heisy
    That’s the 18z btw. Wxbell having issues. GFS is only model out of all of them racing that PAC ULL east as fast as it does. It’s acting as a kicker. There really isn’t a difference I see in the 50/50. Really think the kicker is playing a role here with the shred .
  2. Heisy
    Here is what I mean, check out the difference out west. Canadian and Euro have that “Total Recall” famous scene look, while the GFS has, whatever you want to call this mess .
  3. Heisy
    GFS (18z does the same) only model that has the Pac low interacting with the main ULL. Yeah the 50/50 matters, but the kicker plays a major role too. .
  4. Heisy
    I can’t think of many events that had pac energy close off near the Rockies, stay closed off in the plains, then be forced under a block and redevelop to a coastal. I’m sure they exist just can’t think of one. Most events with closed ULLs dive out of Canada, like Dec 2000. Can you think of any similar setups? .
  5. Heisy
    Agreed. After the cutter should be much better cold air availability with -EPO. PNA issues still, so probably will still be dealing with less than ideal storm tracks, but maybe a decent pattern for front Enders/WAA events. .
  6. Heisy
    Quick tidbit off euro, anyone ever see model show relative velocity (correct?) wave like this? .
  7. Heisy
    Also, that strong wave at the end of euro run would also potentially lock in confluence for next wave. Show goes on. With this anomalous block there will be lots of potential for a miller B nuke. Look at the 12z control for entertainment purposes. Ignore the details .
  8. Heisy
    Starting to see that classic 50/50 with a dip in the trough in the east on the mean. Even a little western ridge action. Long way out, but can’t complain about this 10-12 days out .
  9. Heisy
    18z GFS same type of setup as the 12z euro in Day 10-12 fantasy land. It then does a March 4-6 2001 pin wheel phase for shits and giggles .
  10. Heisy
    End of EURO run (for fun) decent setup with a little better positioning here. This was about to go a little nuts I think. .
  11. Heisy
    Makes sense, if you look at todays EPS members, the ones that drop snow start around Day 11 or so. Hopefully in 2-4 days we get some tease rollin’ .
  12. Heisy
    Agreed, something has to give, there’s plenty of snow events on the EPS members in the LR. Would be nice to at least be teased by something on an OP run already… .
  13. Heisy
    I hear what you’re saying, but 3 days is kind of pushing it. I think you can have a good idea of a storm threat is real up to even 5-6. As long as you obviously don’t get caught up on specifics. Sure, there are events that sneak up on us, but there’s plenty that are at least on OP runs 5 to even 7 days out. Anyway, that was a beautiful EPS run. Little hint of a split flow forming too. .
  14. Heisy
    Just imagine now till about December 4th doesn’t exist and you will all feel better. .
  15. Heisy
    Still looking decent at 12z .
  16. Heisy
    Let’s get this inside Day 10 .
  17. Heisy
    Gotta give the GFS credit it sniffed burying the energy before rest of the models .
  18. Heisy
    Just had lightning! .
  19. Heisy
    Beautiful plume. .
  20. Heisy
    Radar brightening up over the Lake. So jealous. Enjoy .
  21. Heisy
    Couldn’t switch my work schedule enough to make it out. Jealous. Extremely jealous. Enjoy it! Be safe .
  22. Heisy
    Shame this isn’t a few weeks later. As is almost close enough. .
  23. Heisy
    Couple 6z euro members and control dive that N/S energy around the 20th far enough south to generate some snow for the region. PNA spike aids in this. Something to keep an eye on. Potent N/S shortwaves are always modeled poorly imo. .
  24. Heisy
    I’m considering going! A LES monster is still on my bucket chase list. All depends on work, and how fast I think I can leave Buffalo for Philly. .
  25. Heisy
    I’m going to do what I can, all depends on work schedule Thanks all! Most snow I ever saw in one event was around 30”. I couldn’t imagine how awesome an experience of 2-4” rates and 36-48” would be .
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