Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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It basically looks like the 18z euro Ai, that model has been absolutely nailing things lately .
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Yeah it might miss the phase this run, maybe a partial one, ugh .
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Early on I don’t think the GFS looks as lined up with the shortwaves as the two prior runs, might still phase we’ll see, I bet it’s east or less wound up vs the last two runs that’s all .
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I’m absolutely fine where the 00z icon is at this stage, that was close enough. Hopefully other models come close by 18z tomorrow .
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While the storm is 180 hours out the phase we need happens around day 5, so by 18z models Tomorrow or so I hope we start seeing more models hop on board. For me 96 hour is usually when we start seeing some semblance of agreement on the overall h5 scheme. Obviously doesn’t always work out like that though, but you get what I’m saying
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Trough is a touch more positively tilted than 12z, but it does look like it’s phasing. Not as much as 18z GFs though .
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Prob end more tucked than 12z .
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Storm hits down here on Saturday, could be interesting if the Eagles playoff game is scheduled for then, for those who like football in the snow .
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This is my true home in another life. Definitely cool that the there’s a bunch of eps members that look like the GFS .
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Comes out later today, 6z was mid Atlantic hit with partial phase. EPS looks better so far more phasing occurring. .
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It has at least been trending better more towards the phase. Would like the euro to have an event this run, maybe not as amped as gfs but at least something .
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Yea it’s phasing I didn’t understand some of the negative comments lol, it was way better than 00 and 6z which both were decent runs .
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This one is always going to be sloppy, but if enough phasing happens and enough energy escapes from the southern ULL there’s a ton of moisture overrrunning possible .
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I mean it looks much better than 00z and 00z got us decently so… .
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More phasing occurring, see how much is able to round the corner before the kicker comes .
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This should be a better run, 12z GFS .
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What’s also cool is that storm phasing and coming east may help the pattern beyond that as well ha, good times for you mid Atlantic folks ahead hopefully .
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It’s because of the spacing of the pattern, but it certainly has potential to be a nice event for mid Atlantic and southeast. It’s a tentative situation it all matters how far E that cutoff pushes. 00z gfs we’d all sign on the dotted line I think, snow on snow .
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This doesn’t really have big dog potential because there’s not a lot of room with the shortwave behind it crashing over the ridge, could be a classic 2-5” type event if enough energy phases .
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GFS Phasing this run so it should bring up some moisture .
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End of 18z euro, phasing the southern vort, would have loved to see that beyond 144 .
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1/6 snowstorm - nuisance event or something bigger?
Heisy replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Makes sense I could roll with that . -
1/6 snowstorm - nuisance event or something bigger?
Heisy replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Models reverted back to what I expected. I still am holding out hope for a rogue fronto band that travels farther N than expected and surprises some folks, but right now 1-3” is my call for Philly. . -
Yea classic 50/50, only issue is the kicker coming behind speeding it up, get more phasing early on and sky is the limit here .
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18z euro Ai is very similar to 18z GFS, enough of the southern stream escapes east and allows for enough phasing, MECS for mid Atlantic. End of the OP euro looked similar as well. Woof woof? .
