Heisy

I think if we cash we would need a situation where the northern stream races ahead and lays down some fresh cold air with a light rain event for a follow up wave. Can get a solid hit with an active pattern that way.

I don’t pay attention too much to records, but it seems all we ever see are record highs. Record lows only come in spurts it seems like a night or day. When is the last month during a cold season where the month was near top 5 or even 10 record low?

Yep I really don’t take any value in Long range euro runs anymore.

There’s likely a brief warmup before the next cold intrusion mid month. Question is if we can get blocking

Yes sir. Track so far looks about a perfect a balance you can get for this storm. Colder confluence push, obviously the NAM though, but a nice trend towards euro

Yeah gotta hope we see some consistency with that look from the 6z GfS because that’s a damn nice looking block. Models are going to vary though a lot until they get a good hold in this next event

Hey I’m in the Philly area, I’ve been on a few winter storm chased myself and looking for someone to go with. Help cut down expenses. Hoping this storm is strong enough to and East enough to maybe chase to the Poconos. PM me if looking to chase this storm or any storm in future. Covid makes it tough obviously.

I wonder if we’ll ever get a sustained west based AO block or even a normal block. Feels like it’s impossible anymore.

I like this description. In my years of looking at the wx models I’ve always been torn on whether each model run should be viewed as a separate entity or if trends actually exist, and like you just said I’ve always this feeling sometimes they’re almost trying balance things even though I couldn’t put my finger on it.

Exactly. The cmc had this idea last night which is what the euro shows now. Models are having an extremely extremely tough time on how much energy gets left behind on the southern stream and how far south the northern branch drops. I swear each run every model is changing drastically

Small tidbit but the 12z UKIE 144hr had that northern branch piece in the same spot the 00z Canadian did at same time. Wonder if it would have played out the same and if it’s a signal it’s not crazy. Curious how the 00z will look, and of course the euro.

Hmm well I don’t smoke weed & I worked at a casino for 4 years so can pass any background check, where do I apply?!

Phineas you better have an open guest room for rent for a chase! You basically fulfilled my dream. Since high school I wanted to move from Philly to NE for snow purposes of course. Very jealous. models tend to have issues with northern branch phases. Plus there’s going to be issues with how much energy is left behind from the first (2nd event) down south so a lot is going to change

Check out the 00z Canadian for an even wilder scenario, snowstorm from Philly to Maine, and an absolute monster for the NW crew

I don’t have precip maps yet but cmc 500 track had to be a beast for you guys...way different look this run

Whoa, check out the CMC @ 174 hrs...looks like it’s diving the northern branch down big time

Yeah, I believe this was the 2nd part of the first part that busted down in DC. Think the low slowed down and got captured. I know because my dumbass storm chased to VA instead of waiting a day or 2 and storm chasing up SNE, one of my major life regrets lol.

No one wants it to snow more than me. Trust me. I’ve storm chased snowstorms where I couldn’t afford it but went anyway. Hell I lost a job because of 2015 NE event . Ji will tell you if he recalls, but the 2001 bust sent me into a depression at 14 years old. I’m sick in the head when it comes to snow. I used to feel the same way when I saw negative posts, but I’m just being realistic. The week after this storm? There’s reason to have tempid excitement The antecedent air is too warm. The first storm would need to head into 50/50 position, but it’s not doing that on the models. Instead it’s lifting to the NW. We don’t get snowstorms, normally, with a HP off the SE coast like is being shown. We’d need a monster ULL to close off and stall in the perfect spot and even then with this airmass it likely would be too warm. I’m more enthused with the week after this event. I’m still interested in seeing if the far Nw burbs can cash in though...I’m only talking about the city and immediate burbs of course.

Meteorlogically speaking it will be a fun track, don’t expect snow though

You have to love both the GFS & CMC long range OP runs....Polar vortex paying a visit along with solid +PNA.... hopefully ensembles agree...I’d say if that pattern happens well cash in soon

There’s not enough cold air to work with imo. Not saying it couldn’t work, but it’s a longshot

Yep. This storm legit sent me into a month long depression as a 15 year old. (Yeah I’m a bit strange)...One of the NE forum members has a nice write up if you google it, but back then the 12z euro didnt come out until evening times, and if im remembering correctly there was no 00z euro. I think one of the 12z euro runs finally backed down, but the AVN stayed on board for a bit which is why forecasters had trouble reversing courses. Ill still always remember JBs newsletter few days before. What a bastard storm. I also remember Ji and Noreaster hyping it up for a week on wright weather lol...what a beautiful 500mb though, so damn close.

Wow that LR EPS look is a classic southern slider/mid Atlantic setup. Nice 50/50 style confluence and a positive tilted southern stream along with the obvious PNA ridge

Good post, but one thing...I recall the opposite last year. The long range always showed shades of a great pattern, but would end up changing over and over...hopefully the look holds this time

I agree. This is the first legit potential event if it holds for a few days. The pattern is conducive. Nice PNA. Blocking isn’t amazing but it’s there, a nice Pre storm ULL...., issue has to do with timing and placement as always with how that 2nd shortwave kind of swings under the ULL and where that ULL sets up. It could go to crap if it takes too long. Then you’d have another over phased Great Lakes low, but as it stands this might be our first track.