rjvanals

The problem w this run wasn’t the surface temps but the 775-850 mb levels torching w the low so far south  

19 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

oh yeah..it's hilariously warm,...though it would be something above say 500' or whatever if you're far enough NW..

Yeah similar to 3/6/13  

Just now, Deck Pic said:

Check out the snow depth map though

Euro is also colder than all other guidance so lets hope its right

18z Euro is nice for DC 

12z Euro gives DC nearly an inch 

RGEM is a step back ☹️

Story of 2023 no snow on the northern periphery of the system as @psuhoffmankeeps harping on 

8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

About 3 feet behind where we should be at this time of year in the Syracuse snowbelt. This string of awful winters here is definitely going to bring down the average.

A good NW flow which is what Syracuse needs for Lake Effect at least gets cold air into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast while a SW flow regime which buries Buffalo (2001-02, 2022-23) is bad news down here since we have no cold air. 

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Looking at guidance as a whole, including recent NAMs (which were pretty good compared to earlier runs today) it kinda seems like somewhere a band will set up and maybe drop a slushy T-2”. Who knows where that’ll be… EPS would say north, Canadian kinda south, NAMs/GFS around DC.

Column looks pretty good tomorrow evening for snow( except for extreme boundary layer).

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But we used to get a lot of snowstorms around here from a hudson high setup and a positive NAO.  They were very marginal in most cases...storms where the snow fell mostly at 32-33 degrees and in many cases they did mix and were like a 6" snow in DC and more NW.  Lately those setups aren't even close anymore.  A 50/50 was always necessary for the southern mid atl to get a 20" snowstorm.  But we used to be able to get a messy 6-10" storm that mixed without one from a setup like this.  Yes maybe with a true block and a locked in 50/50 this could have worked out...but man come on how much snow are we really gonna get if we need to stack this many dominoes our way to get snow?  

We’ve always gotten perfect train rain storms in DC even mid winter but now places like Albany, Binghamton, and Syracuse are raining w a low off the coast in mid January☹️☹️

Problem for immediate NW crew will be temps from 1500-3000ft looking at soundings. Hopefully they’re running a degree or two warm. 

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Latest WB 18Z GFS brings the snow tomorrow am, not Friday.

If we can get precip in early enough western burbs should get on the board tomorrow morning 

18z GFS is pretty close to snow for morning commute based on soundings from the beltway west. 
 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2022122118&fh=18&r=us_state_de_md&pwplus=1&lon=-77.4364&lat=38.9752&metar=&st=b686ce5c32bed4c6

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 3K NAM coming in colder for far NW on first wave.

Looking at the soundings on pivotal it would be a ~2 hr period of snow even for the immediate NW suburbs if 3K is right 

14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Since I now have a real job that can largely be done remotely, I’m gonna have to start eyeing chasing some of these snowstorms in the future, especially if things get dire locally.

Any obvious chasing tips? My job doesn’t allow me quite the amount of flexibility that one might need to chase these events, but my concern is always dumb stuff, like getting stuck in the mountains if I’m running to Snowshoe chasing 2’ of snow that would’ve been 2” in Arlington.

Having chased Lake Effect during college at Syracuse, stay off the Thruway or any interstate unless you wanna get stranded between exits. The towns will keep most primary and secondary roads passable enough even in crazy bands for pretty much any 4x4 but have a shovel in case you can’t find the road and get briefly stuck. 

Based on Twitter we had a possible touchdown in Tyson’s? 

W borderline temps I agree rooting for a bit of sleet early on will actually enhance accumulations by putting down a base to help overcome daylight and mid March 

16 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

Wanted to go full weenie along I-95 with what some of the hi-res are spitting out, but due to the timing and uncertainty with the rates I kept things a bit closer to climo.

 

Check the Whitetail webcams. Looks like a solid squall. 

Looks like the GL being a bit faster on the 18z is what screwed things up 

18z isn't a fan of Sunday 

5 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Yeah, good point. But at least in MBY inside the beltway, the ground has actually been frozen this year. That did not happen this year. Fingers crossed for an inch or two on the grass at least tomorrow afternoon/evening.

If you want decent accumulation during the day w temps at/just below freezing a good rule of thumb is having visibility under a mile. Light Snow with .75 mile visibility and 32f will accumulate while light snow with 2 mile visibility and 30f will struggle to accumulate ~10-3pm. 

2 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

NAM has light snow breaking out at 12Z tomorrow in parts of NOVA. I'll take my scraps with pleasure. 

That band has been jumping around like crazy if you scrowl through the previous runs. 

While we are getting closer to the goods on the coastal, the front end stuff on Friday is a bit more ragged looking than past runs on both Nam and now NAM 3K which is in range. We need the front end stuff to score forum wide since relying on the coastal is a huge gamble. 

1 minute ago, WVclimo said:

MRB is -2.8 for January so far.  If it snows 0.5” here Friday, I’ll have a double-digit snowfall total for January.  It’s been a pretty good winter month.

DCA has had as much snow as Albany this year to put things in perspective