rjvanals

My concern w the storm is we’re counting on dynamics to get us cold enough for a marginal snow event from a system that’s been weaker than modeled over the past 24 hours

Counting on the HRRR to verify 15 hours out 

FWIW Euro does spit out accumulating snow even over DC this run 

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

NYC kinda needs this one. Their snow drought is arguably worse than ours at this point.

If it wanted to jump another 150 miles south, I wouldn’t stop it though

Yeah we need another shift like the 18z had but it’s close enough to monitor after the SB 

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

The good Twitter Mets are observing a pretty stout shift southward in the cutoff low over the plains. Could save NE MD. Heck… if it’s stout enough…

Bostons on the northern edge this run…

18z GFS made a big move south (not quite enough for immediate metro) and would get the northern crew in the game 

Euro's cold enough to snow until the precip finally gets here for the PD3 "storm" 

30 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

i guarantee you most people in here would be tired if we got 8 weeks of conditions like we had that one week in january. nobody is that much of a winter weenie lmao

The only time I’ve been tired of snow was my Freshman year at Syracuse in the 2003-2004 season; it was the second snowiest season on record there with 180” and by March (combined w pledging activities in the snow) I was ready for spring 

5.6” storm total here w a little over 8” OTG 

2 hours ago, rjvanals said:

12/11 1.6”

1/16 4.8”

1/19 5.3

Total: 11.7”

1/19 .3 additional from streamer for storm total of 5.6”

Season Total: 12” 

On 1/16/2024 at 3:44 PM, rjvanals said:

12/11 1.6”

1/16 4.8”

Total: 6.4” 

12/11 1.6”

1/16 4.8”

1/19 5.3

Total: 11.7”

Light snow w a bit of sun breaking through the clouds at times; 4.6” and 30f 

2.5 so far this SN,26

RGEM is juiced up compared to 18Z

We should probably avoid spiking the football before the goaline….

1 minute ago, Amped said:

It's pretty much a given that this is going to over perform for most of the area at this point.   The question is by how much?

18z Euro looks like a hold vs 12z 

RGEM is better than 6z 

Yeah drier than 12z and in decent agreement w the GFS 

On 12/11/2023 at 11:04 AM, rjvanals said:

12/11: 1.6” 

12/11 1.6”

1/16 4.8”

Total: 6.4” 

42 minutes ago, CAPE said:

2.3" Actually had some moderate snow with decent flakes the last hour. Dry slot not too far to the south per radar but hanging in there.  

Glad you got on the board after all the solid analysis you contribute

Canadian would be acceptable 

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Well, apparently the Chicago snowstorm is busting hard, so lots the models can get wrong even at short leads. One day that would work in someone’s favor here, you think.

Kept seeing that the models kept moving the center of the low ~75 miles each run so not surprised (probably won’t help us) 

18z GEFS is a down tick for snow in the Monday/Tuesday period

Looking at the MD traffic cams it doesn't look like a "real" storm until you get to Hagerstown. The Whitetail webcams look pretty awesome!