rjvanals

4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

I think for me, I'm leaning like 0.75"-ish.  By the time we flip (8-ish) and it gets cold enough and heavy enough to accumulate (8:30-ish?), Not sure there's a whole lot left to squeeze out.  I do think there will be a NW to SE band, and they can be unpredictable

I’m thinking something similar to the 2/7/21 storm last year. Had a warm day prior and it was a bit slower to flip than modeled with inside the beltway underperforming a bit. 

15 minutes ago, Amped said:

This is either going to be a really big bust for the Gfs or Euro.

The Euro on Pivotal is showing Sleet on the graphics but looking at the Euro soundings at 7 am it should either be Rain or Snow since there's no warm layer except at the surface. This may be why the snow map is lower than earlier.

18z Euro isn’t a fan of Snow in DC 

I approve of the NAM 

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Euro trying at 162...prob won't make it up the coast, but close enough to track for sure

The low is 500 miles west of 12z last night. Definitely worth watching. 

1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

GFS is a 3-5 hour snow event for DC proper...maybe 2-3".  We probably mix around 6pm.

If we hadn’t been chasing this for a week most would be happy. Also does show a signal for some wraparound snow on this run 

Low on the Euro is at least just east of DC this run; maybe some backside snow?

Just now, Snowfan96 said:

Couldn't agree more!  With these types of events, the transition to sleet is often sooner and farther north and west than what the models like to depict.  And if the parent system gets any stronger than currently projected - which is quite possible - that quick changeover is even more likely.

If you like snowpack you'd want some sleet with the Euro as progged since DC spikes into mid 40's as the Low passes over 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

989 right on top of DC at 84 hours 

It's a unusual progression from the mouth of the Chesapeake to DC from 81-84

Just now, rjvanals said:

Better front end for DC at 87 L is just west of Richmond 

Goes over Chesapeake beach at 90

Better front end for DC at 87 L is just west of Richmond 

20 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

To me, this setup seems pretty reminiscent of 12/16/20, just displaced a bit to the south at the start. We scoffed at the unconventional track that guidance was showing (and I believe the low did track SE of where it was progged), but it became clear that the ULL being vaulted to the north would definitely scour any cold that was present, regardless of if the LP track was "typical" or not. 

I've thought the same thing for a while this reminds me of that storm. Maybe we do a bit better front end but that was still a fun strom.

1 minute ago, yoda said:

At least h5 runs right over us... so thump to some brief rain and dryslot

This run really torches us in the DC metro. Would still be a few fun hours Sunday evening. 

Euro takes DC from 28f at 7pm to 47f at 4 AM 

Snow approaching DC at 93 with 999 L over the Smokies 

Low looks to be headed towards Winchester this run 

I prefer the 12z to the 18z; both have roughly the same snow but 18z has more rain over the corridor 

Low heads to HGR higher totals south of DC are largely due to a deathband this run has 

Faster this run but low still goes over DC

1 minute ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Euro has the onset of snow significantly later than gfs, yes?

GFS has onset ~1pm for DC, Euro ~6pm for DC

Looks like about .7-.8qpf of snow in a ~6 hr thump 

I've resigned myself to some rain but would like the low a bit further east to keep from torching into the low 40's. This is a great run if your looking to ski at Whitetail on Monday. 

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Thump, mix, dry slot. Can’t tell how long it rains with the 6 hour maps, but I’d guess not a ton. 

Looks like .3-.4 of rain with temps spiking to low 40's at DCA

A low going from Raleigh to near Norfolk to DC would be unusual 

1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

I guess you don't have to drive all that far to get to where it shifts haha. 

Yeah my 4 years at Cuse were pretty solid snowfall wise but I would still complain when we missed lol 

2003-2004 181.3

2004-2005 136.2

2005-2006 124.6

2006-2007 140.2