rjvanals

Euro misses south it looks like; has a major difference w GFS w what happens w the 1/4 storm in the Canadian maritimes 

GFS is interesting for the 1/7 storm

We got blue on the GFS for the 1/7 storm 

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

maybe with better rates/timing we could do something with this one. It looks close but man it's painful verbatim. Owch

It close enough to watch. This run we get fringed w light precip but it’s cold enough at the 925 level we’d snow if the precip was heavier 

12/11: 1.6” 

5 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

1" on sidewalks and roads people are going to be so surprised waking up to this lmao 

Similar scenes to mine. Went 1.4 conservatively but it was likely closer to 2 here. 

1.4in here w snow starting to wind down

Looking at some of the road cams in the band the ICC is snow covered as you get closer to 270

Yeah the band is legit w snow sticking to the driveway and slush buildup on the street 

Light snow in Potomac, 34f w enough accumulation to make a slush ball off the cars hood 

Snow mixing in; 35f

12 z NAM looks to speed up a changeover but gets the precip out much quicker than earlier runs 

Euro looks somewhat sleety in the metros w a change to snow looking at soundings.

10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

3k is in. What was exciting to me was seeing better offshore development from the LP... I'm not dumb enough to think there is any chance this goes crazy, but I have to imagine a redeveloping low in our primo spot cannot hurt? I'd assume that helps to keep precip around after the cold pushes in.

Big red flag for me is there’s no real arctic air behind the system. When it’s supposed to have flipped over in the metro it’s 34f in Pittsburgh. That’s not gonna do it imo

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Wasn’t that 87?

No 87 was the big Veterans Day storm. The one in 95 was short duration but had intense rates and enough sleet for my 10 year old self to sled down the driveway. 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The synoptic setup here reminds me a little of a storm in early November 1995.  

Remember that storm which I believe was on Veterans Day of 95 that brought afternoon severe storms and then a massive temp drop that brought sleet then snow. Had maybe ~2 inches from that in Potomac 

DCA: 15.2

IAD: 29.3

BWI: 25.4

RIC: 16.8

SBY: 16.2 

@TerpeastThanks for putting in the effort to produce such a in-depth outlook! 

Snowing pretty good but not much stickage   even on cars here in midtown at 54th st 

108 is good at least 

Couple red flags:

1. Source region isn’t as cold this run looking upstream 

2. Looking at soundings hr 150 we’re it looks good on the map but precip would be forming below the DGZ since we’re not very cold at the 700 MB level 

Some Graupel here in Potomac 

12z GFS would be the best event of the winter 

For this “winter” the 0z GFS would work 

Soundings on Sunday evening are close on HH GFS for western suburbs