rjvanals

Seems like some positive lightning strikes behind the main w the thunder shaking my house a few times 

Normally we need low dewpoints heading into a event but this time it's killing our chances of seeing anything measurable 

RGEM is a touch north and gets snow close to DC 

ICON is no good 

The NAM gives Salisbury 18 inches the Euro gives it 2 wonder what will be right 

NAM would be wrong even if it was in cm's

When has the NAM ever been wrong on such short leads 

max snow on this Euro run was 7 inches lol

I'm not sure why we have such a pocket of dry air as soon as your north of the Potomac coming into the event compared to everywhere else on the East Coast 

Pivotal/Weatherbell/TropicalTidbits are just trying to get site visits up w the NAM run 

The only thing about this winter that irks me is we JUST missed two major snowstorms on 1/10 and 2/20 by such minor nuances that applying the butterfly effect we didn't need much for a great winter 

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Not bad for DC.

Looking at My snow totals unless we get something this season , It's been atleast 3 seasons in a row  without a 6"+ Storm  for Smithsburg. 

That's pretty nuts and not normal for the area up along the PA border.

Yeah it's not normal but mostly just bad luck for your backyard since you've had chances but they've all underperformed for various small scale reasons

Any winter DCA gets multiple 6 inch plus events is a good winter imo 

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I guess you'd expect to see more tucked members overall?

Yeah and far less weak systems; the OP was on the far western part of the Ensembles run and much stronger 

Here's a few Euro ensemble runs from when we had the great snow maps with the OP but warning signs when looking under the hood 

Flipping back through the ensembles one warning sign should have been DC maxed out at 90% showing greater than 1 inch and ~50% of 4 inch plus; the means looked great due to some huge hits but some simulations showed this outcome 

I’d sign up for this run at this point 

Good news is we don’t have to wait long til the ICON then RGEM then GFS tell us to go to bed before the Euro 

3-6-13 was the worst bust imo 

We have warning level snow as close as Waldorf w 72 hours to go; it’s not looking good but we don’t need a huge shift for warning level snow and super minor shift for advisory level. 
 

It sucks the MECS fell apart but let’s salvage at least something 

Toggling through the Euro runs since Friday and there's only small changes synoptically so trying to figure out what has screwed this up

GEFS Panels

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

And it was fun to track.  Randy’s “folks”with shocked Beethoven was something I will never forget.  One of the best times ever on this board. Nothing lasts forever good or bad. Something else will come along. 

As I've gotten older the tracking and excitement for the next model run is 80% of the fun with having it actually snow being a great bonus. 

Even if this storm trends to what we all fear, it was still a great long range call by @psuhoffmanto identify this as a threat window

It's crazy we're ~100 hours out with such a wide range of outcomes