rjvanals

I’m fine with the Canadian and UKMET keeping things south of us—once a system gets north, it rarely comes back south

The GFS has been amazing on this storm

If forecasting the weather seven days out were as simple as looking at the Euro and calling it gospel, I wouldn’t find it nearly as compelling. The real fascination lies in the uncertainty of what might unfold.

Yeah we mostly get scraped and no flush hits w low end warning being our upside

18z Euro gives me 2010 Boxing Day anxiety I’d rather it just miss out to sea

18z GFS was predicting nearly an inch of snow for DCA tonight

NAM 3k still likes a dusting through the metro this evening

For DC looks like 75% misses 20% smaller hits in the 1-3 range and one bigger hit

Still a bit to early to completely bail on this especially if the goal is a low end warning event around the metro area

Ask yourself how confident would you be in Raleigh or Norfolk that you’d be getting a blizzard this weekend?

I generally take GFS runs that show 30 inches of snow in Raleigh and 2 feet in Norfolk in 96 hrs as Gospel w no chance it might be wrong

What’s our next threat window after we sniff cirrus this weekend?

Had the same thought it would have far less upside but would be cold powder on top of our glacier

No reason to give up just yet especially w the GFS and Canadian giving us some snow. We have the most important ingredient for snow in the cold airmass and the general synoptic setup is pretty good.

Snow showers this evening? HRRR and NAM and Gfs continue to suggest we have a shot