madwx

Hoping to thread my morning commute in before the changeover so I can just watch the rippage outside my office window

0Z models say wagons SE so far

snowpack definitely got nuked overnight.  Should be down to piles before any snow starts falling on Thursday morning.

This is a perfect storm to use positive snow depth change model outputs.  Kuchera and especially 10:1 are going to to far overestimate actually accumulation along the rain snow line

5 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

This is not what you want to see if you want a warm March-April.

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Yeah, this does concern me, but it's not a death knell.  Feb 2001 had a SSW and it was at the end of a multi year La Nina and April was above average.  

5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

mmhmm...

5-6-7 is a good way to stay above average through the 18th or so

33 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Fake cold

on my drive into work, my car thermometer went from 7 to 3 to 11 to 23 in about a 10 mile stretch.  So yeah, sorta fake

42 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The last 3 years April has outsnowed March. Let's reverse that trend this year as well.
2020: Mar 1.8", Apr 4.7", May 0.7"
2021: Mar T, Apr 4.5"
2022: Mar 3.7", Apr 4.4"

Yeah if we want to go gangbusters 2/15-3/15 and then go above average temps for the month and a half afterwards I won't complain.

14 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Hey Beavis, come to Wiscahhnsin, why don't cha?

jumped from 7 to 20 in an hour.  so despite the decoupling of the boundary layer, the torch is still on

Radiated down to 5 this morning. 11 degrees below the forecasted low

2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Out here, we had by far our snowiest month of that winter in February and a record tying 9 days in a row of measurable snow. The 2nd half of the month was mild and wet (with a big river flooding event in Indiana and east central IL), but finished exactly normal at ORD following the cold and snowy start.

Biggest factor in the cold March-April 2018 was a poorly timed SSW event in the latter part of February that set up an extended period of deep -NAO blocking. April was particularly brutal because it was essentially another month of winter when almost everyone but beavis are craving warmer temps by then. If you want something to ruin spring, a prolonged late season blocking episode is one of the common ways to do it.

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Have to hope this upcoming potential SSW doesn't repeat 2018.  2nd coldest April on record here, only reason we didn't get coldest on record was the fact we hit 81 on the 30th.  

We got the mega blizzard in central Wisconsin in mid month and Madison got hit with 7.2" the week afterwards.  Luckily that melted within 2 days.

19 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Models all still have a storm around the 10th that has some cold sector precip. Canadian looks best but they've all been flopping back n forth. 

Calling it a cold sector is very generous

Absolutely top notch outside. We’re at the point in the winter where sunshine and upper 20s means only wearing a sweatshirt outside

Down to -9 this morning.  27 degrees colder than the same time yesterday

58 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

What website is that?

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

Going to be an impressively short cold blast tonight and tomorrow.  Only 30 hours of Arctic air and then we are back above average

average temp of 27.0 in January.  +7.5 and the 8th warmest January on record.

1.82" of precip which was +0.36"

13.9" of snow which was +0.2"

Got down to -17 at my house.  Saw -21 on my drive to work in a valley nearby

2 degrees this morning with cloudy skies. Usually we need clearing to get temps this cold. 
 

My house radiates pretty well so will update on how cold things get tonight and Friday morning

16 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

Looks like Madison and Milwaukee's final totals ended up at 7.3 and 7.9 respectively for this storm. With Madison having a single-day total of 6.4, which is the largest single-day total since 4/17/18 there. That's pretty crazy it's been that long. And there are widespread 9" totals across most of Madison. Definitely our largest single storm in the area since 2019. The last 3 winters were pretty much all nickel and diming. 

Got 6.2” on the north side of town.  Looks like southern Dane county was probably the jackpot zone for this storm.  The rates from about 7PM to 2 AM are what did it 

5 minutes ago, mimillman said:

RFD totals anyone? That area has been under heavy returns all day 

I’m in the subsidence just north of the main band through Dane county. Can actually see the sun through the clouds

just a couple tenths so far.  Heavier rates knocking at the door so we'll see if things pick up

Flurries starting here

GFS is about 10 to 15 miles further S with a continued narrowing of the swath