madwx

The pingers continue here.  Precip keeps regenerating just to our west 

the pinging has become constant here.  if this carries on for the next 6 hours or so I'll get a feel for what LAF experienced during GHD1

That euro fantasy storm will trend drier and weaker.  

Been mostly sleet here.  Switches to freezing rain under the lighter returns 

Just now, Nelson said:

29F with moderate sleet here

Crazy the difference in precip over a few miles. Looks like some sleet is mixing in here now

Rain and 30. We’ll see if the dynamic cooling wins out and brings us to sleet

Had some snow overnight. Transitioned to sleet now.  Looks like precip will be spotty until the afternoon

Ready for some pingers 

Hello darkness my old friend

6 hours ago, Geoboy645 said:

Meanwhile up here we are going to get absolutely buried if these trends keep holding. Just an insane amount of snow. I've only experienced this amount of snow once with the 12/20/12 blizzard. So to potentially do that again and then add a couple more inches would be unimaginable. Especially since I don't have to worry about shoveling or driving in it. Also this would smash a lot of 1 and 2 day snowfall records across most of the state.

Shades of the April 2018 blizzard 

5 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

https://twitter.com/CodyMatzFox9/status/1626566961869062144?s=20

 

Something interesting to consider given how much this board chatters about sun angle. 

I think melt varies so much on pavement type etc. i remember during the first week of February 2011 after GHD1. The snow/ice on a sidewalk was melting in full sun while in the single digits

8 hours ago, madwx said:

Got down to 6 at the house. Saw as low as 3 on the drive in to work.  
 

This will be the first big test of sun angle season. Wall to wall sunshine vs mid 20s high temps. Will it melt the 1” of snow that drifted onto my driveway

Didn’t stand a chance

Got down to 6 at the house. Saw as low as 3 on the drive in to work.  
 

This will be the first big test of sun angle season. Wall to wall sunshine vs mid 20s high temps. Will it melt the 1” of snow that drifted onto my driveway

3 hours ago, madwx said:

Back edge of the defo band moving through here.  Gonna go out and measure shortly.  Drive home from work went better than expected 

Abour 4.5” total.  2.5” of it was in the defo band from about 430 PM to 8 

Back edge of the defo band moving through here.  Gonna go out and measure shortly.  Drive home from work went better than expected 

26 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like a good chance that areas south of I-80 will get skunked in the upcoming regime.  Better chances the farther north you go.

you could have posted this at any point during the winter and it would be true

flurries starting up on the SW side of Madison

the snow has been trending later as well.  This used to look like a morning show here but now it looks like the majority of the snow will fall after noon

0z GFS continues the very slow SE shift with that model

18z GFS is holding strong with its north and stronger solution.  18z Euro is definitely caving to drier and a bit more south

4 minutes ago, Baum said:

has always been weak and south...no? 

yeah but they are even more south now.  before the northern edge of the defo band was around MSN.  Now it's Janesville.

18Z NAMs say wagons south

GFS continues to give S WI over 12" on kuchera ratios and over 7" in positive snow depth change.  Can't see how this will be a warning criteria storm here.  Looks like a slight SE trend on the Euro over the past few runs

Will this be the answer to N Illinois' prayers?  Will it hit the DBQ-MSN-OSH corridor again?  will it get sheared out and go far SE and weak?  Stayed tuned here for the answers

1 hour ago, Baum said:

over/ under:

5.5 " MKE

4.2" Rockford

6.5" Madison

4.0 " Cary,IL

under on all of them