madwx

4 minutes ago, iceengine said:

Have friends riding this out in Rotonda West.  Just moved down there from Jersey too.  Tried to convince them to leave but they insisted on staying put.  They will be passing on condition updates as long as they can.

Damn, what a hellscape

3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Has there ever been a CAT 5 hurricane that was moving with an easterly component in the Atlantic Basin? Most hurricanes this strong are continuing westward or have some sort of westerly component.

Hurricane Michael, 4 years ago

low cuts from Omaha to Duluth,  we get record high temps and a highly forced lined of storms.  QLCS tornadoes galore.  Fargo gets 30"

1 minute ago, Malacka11 said:

Saw something really weird just a few minutes ago on a dog walk. It looked like a bunch of stars moving in a single line at a very quick pace, like several times faster than planes seem to travel in the sky. They were all very faintly connected by an extremely thin white line. Was only visible for a few seconds before vanishing behind nearby showers. Any ideas? Debris entering the atmosphere or something? 

It was a line of starlink satellites

3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Recon finding another wind shift wnw of the first one.

That’s likely to be the dominant one. Should see it fully consolidate by 6z tonight 

4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Recon just found another weak surface center down below 13ºN.  It's a bit of a mess at the surface.

That’s associated with the old mid level center. I’ll assume the mid and low level centers will focus around 14.3N since that’s where the convection is generating the most PV 

https://www.aviationweather.gov/metar/data?ids=CWSA&format=decoded&date=&hours=6

Sable Island.  Note that there haven't been any new METARs in an hour

2 minutes ago, eyes2theskies said:

Looks like nhc moved cone south it had Tampa in its cross hairs now it’s Sarasota for the 8pm update 

the cone doesn't get update during the intermediate advisories. just the full ones at 5 and 11

Sable Island MSLP down to 978.   Sustained winds only around 30 knots though

2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

If it does I assume a further west track?

There are some difference between how the GFS and Euro handle upper features beyond 48 hours, but staying around 15 N through tomorrow evening will give credence that a path somewhere between the GFS and Euro into the GOM is correct.

the convection is tugging the center of the gyre and it seems to be heading due west now.  Will have to keep an eye on how long it stays below 15 degrees.  Most of the models hold it around the latitude until Saturday evening.  

9 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Storm is already starting to cook just N of the ABC islands.

yep, most intense blow up of convection yet on the downshear side of the circulation

15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It's waaaaay out there, but nice hit in the eastern sub from Fiona on the 12z GFS.  

The anticipated synoptic pattern should be conducive for a north or northeast motion near/after landfall, so I think it would have to make landfall along the Gulf to have any shot of impacting part of the sub.

I'm guessing you mean Hermine?   Though with the way things are going in the eastern Atlantic 98L might end up being Ian or even Julia

Pretty amazing bust on the CAMs which did not predict the line of storms going through southern wisconsin

Along those lines, likely the last time we’ll have dewpoints in the 70s this season in S WI 

About to depart CLT on a flight back to Madison.  Switched to the left side of the plane to hopefully get some nice views of the storms 

3.09” storm total so far

MSN and MKE both broke daily rainfall records yesterday

58 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Hell of a feature spinning over Lake Michigan. Hard to explain what kind of feature it even is

Mesolow 

Steady rain has started here.  Relatives in NW Dane County have already gotten an inch.  Makes some of those crazy high totals look reachable 

NAM, GFS and Euro all now showing over 3" here from tomorrow evening through Monday.   NAM even going a little crazy and giving all of Dane county almost 6"

Looks like we may be in the bullseye of the heavy rain this weekend.  The GFS and Euro both give us over 2".  The NAM has been a bit more inconsistent with it's main swath

Wildfire smoke finally made it here this year.  Tempered highs today just in the lower 80s instead of the expected mid 80s

got 1.75" yesterday, most storms have been overperforming with precip recently

4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

bump.

I’d definitely play

17 minutes ago, mjwise said:

I glanced at a few model soundings and it looked like it was mixing to something like 550mb or 600mb in the plains. It's done this a few (or more...) times this year. Mixing is only part of the problem though. The GFS in the medium to long range tends to get constipated and just amplifies existing features in situ beyond all reasonable bounds. It's not just ridges; the GFS amplified some mega-cutoffs in the spring/early summer too where a ULL would just sit and spin and get deeper and deeper at 500mb for days on end.

yeah, a few days ago it had some places only having highs in the teens in Alaska,  has rebounded to showing those same places in the upper 40s to low 50s now