frostfern

9 hours ago, Torchageddon said:

With how the climate has been behaving in recent years near the Lakes and what is taking place now it sealed it for me that my goal is now to simply leave, meteorology and weather is my main passion so to save it. Walking outside in mid-April feeling like your face is numb and in pain, yeah.

Today's high is 0ºC with a wind chill of -9ºC for most of the day. That would be in the all-timers for the worst late April day since it will be overcast with flurries. I'm trying to remember an April that was this terrible. I saw on the 00z Euro the same nightmare and on the 240 hr frame (May 1) I smiled in horror. 

Is it time I pony up some of my quarantine stimulus check money to watch the 384 hr Euro?  Or will that just make me more depressed?  I don't understand why the weather gods have to conspire to make 2020 even more hell-year than it already is.  Just need a little hope please.  I suppose it could be worse.  My neighborhood didn't get flattened by a tornado.  I mean, I feel bad complaining about the weather of all things but I just need something to look forward to after rona-hell.

On 4/18/2020 at 7:29 AM, Baum said:

Fixed that for anywhere east of Lake Michigan and north of I-80.   Also, "winter" = London-style.  Cold and damp but no real snow. 

1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

@madwx @Geoboy645 Here's hoping for a few rumbles this evening, am I right?

There will probably be some thunder over there.  The freezing level is real low so graupel will almost certainly make it to the ground.  Stronger updrafts may have some small hard hail too.  I don't think there will be any thunder in my area but still could see some graupel and gusty winds.  This setup reminds me of mountain weather.  Dry atmosphere with steep lapse rates and low freezing level.

At temperatures between 0C and -40C you can have either water droplets, snow/ice crystals, or both.  It all depends on the type of aerosols present along with the temperature and humidity.  At temperatures below freezing the ice crystals are generally much larger than the liquid droplets, so they will slowly fall and separate from the part of the cloud that is liquid droplets.

I just found out the cell I barely got out of the way of did drop 2" hail in Plainwell, Michigan.  Looks like I high-tailed north just in time.  I did run into a solid line of 60+ dbs in the dark driving north, but the hail thankfully didn't get bigger than dime size.

Chasing was pretty frustrating as elevated cells looking intense over central Lake Michigan heading straight for me weakened as soon as they moved inland.  The mesos that finally made it inland over Allegan county were messy and surrounded with rain, plus it was getting dark.  The lightning was incredible though.  Not a ton of CGs, but very very frequent strobing.  Sadly I wasn't able to find a clear distant view of the towers moving away as there was a lot of low cloud / haze in the way every time I checked.  August 29 2019 was a better show only because it cleared out very well giving a perfect 25 mile view of the upper parts of the CB towers and anvil-crawlers.

2 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said:

And so it looks like things are starting to ramp up.  Shouldn't be too long before it goes severe at this rate.  Temperatures just to the south are in the mid-70s, although the prior poster said storms are just north of the warm front.

Barely north.  The boundary seems to be directly over MKX at the moment.  

This pocket of cells is just barely north of the surface warm front.  Have to see what it does when it moves out over the lake.

I see initiation just north of MKX.  Tops already at 40k ft.  

25 minutes ago, LansingWeather said:

Was that the year of the EF-3 in Dexter?

My friend and I went out chasing hail cores, ended up being right at the formation of the TOR which moved over Dexter, AFAIK I am the only one who go tthe formation of that TOR on video. Was a huge highlight of my adventures.

I don't know how you chase hail.  It seems if you get in front of a hail core it's pretty damn hard to find shelter.  A gas station canopy is usually a really bad idea and an underpass is even worse.  One time I left my car under the gas station canopy and went in the store.  Wasn't expecting the car to be spared if golfballs did fall.  That time it didn't get bigger than nickel size but I was kind of worried based on the radar and didn't think I could drive away fast enough since it was more of a bow than a cell.

24 minutes ago, LansingWeather said:

Was that the year of the EF-3 in Dexter?

My friend and I went out chasing hail cores, ended up being right at the formation of the TOR which moved over Dexter, AFAIK I am the only one who go tthe formation of that TOR on video. Was a huge highlight of my adventures.

No.  That was the year before (2012).  I didn't chase anything that day.  May 20, 2013 there was a small cell that developed in southern Newaygo county then moved into Mecosta county.  I just kind of watched it go by to the north then drove in behind to look for hail on the ground.  You were lucky to get that.  I've never seen a real tornado, just waterspouts.

16 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Biggest hail I've ever seen was golf ball size. Quite frankly, that's big enough. 

I saw 2.25" stones melting on the ground while chasing behind a storm here in Michigan.  May 2013.  Don't know if that counts.  I couldn't afford to total my car.  As for falling hail, I've seen quarter or slightly larger a few times....  from safely indoors.

This is a pretty crazy setup for southern Lower Michigan.  Reed Timmer is in weeny mode.

I'm worried this might be one of those scenarios where convection can't get going despite what CAMs suggest.

44 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Maybe we can get it down to 930 mb over IND with 5 feet of snow.  

Losing electricity while under quarantine would be awful though.  Can't cook and can't go out to eat.  Even worse situation for field hospitals taking care of COVID victims.  Are they even built to withstand hurricane force wind gusts?

That Euro map is hilarious.  I thought it was in cm at first.  It's inches!  WTF!!!  Funny how that storm keeps disappearing from one model only to show up on the other.  It was on the ECMWF a few runs ago, went away, appeared on the GFS, went away again.  Now it appears once more on the ECMWF more powerful than before.

Even if there isn't a snowstorm, these cold outbreaks in April can be interesting due to the increasing afternoon instability.  Heaviest snow showers's I've ever seen in my life in Michigan have always been on April afternoons.  They tend to be wet and mix with a lot of graupel though, so not much accumulation. 

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Having an April 14 snowstorm in consecutive years in the sub would be pretty crazy.

ECMWF had it one run then lost it.  Now GFS is showing it.  

GFS is now showing a Great Lakes snowstorm on the 14th.  Maybe Grand Rapids MI finally gets the bulls-eye 8" swath after we missed it every time this winter.  Now that the buds are just starting to open it's finally time for some snow. lol

The destabilization will be driven by cold air advection aloft more than surface heating.  The upper low moving in was producing thundersnow showers over the southwestern US. These will be very low-topped cells.  Less instability is needed.  The bigger problem will be whether there's enough upward forcing to overcome dry air entertainment with such a big shear-to-instability ratio.  I don't think CAMS really know how to handle these kind of small-scale details.  Chasing small fast-moving cells that can poop out at any moment will be frustrating.  It also gets dark early this time of year.  If it's a late-evening event it will be mostly in the dark.

54 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

My interest in this setup has been piqued a tad over the last couple days, I might do some local spotting if something comes up toward WI. Was thinking about going into Iowa; but between the abrupt societal lockdown/economic disruption, disagreement among the CAMs on where the strongest storms will track, likelihood of having to contend with the MS River and the poor chasing terrain nearby, and Iowa's general track record with tornado threats (doesn't produce when you expect it do, does when you don't) I'm leaning against it at this point.

Yea.  There might be an outbreak of low-topped supercell storms coming out of Iowa as the dry slot and upper low sweeps in from the west.  Not a lot of CAPE needed because the tropopause/EL will be low.  It's hard to predict if there will be any really persistent cells though.  Updrafts might have a lot of spin but are usually kind of small and can be snuffed out pretty easily in the dry slot.

9 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

What else is new? Except when Illinois gets early/late season snow while we're dry, lol.

Grand Rapids is normally somewhat of a snowbelt, but every single synoptic snow was a fringe event with heavy totals missing either north or south.  Cold snaps were also short and dry with little or no lake effect.  Most boring winter ever.  Next system will be between the thunder and the snow.  Cold rain.  How exciting.  Boring weather is good for virus spreading though apparently.

14 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Thunderless rain this time of the year is pretty lame.  Maybe April will provide us with a little thunder.

The Euro shows a zone of 500+ j/kg MUCAPE getting into northern IL and far southern MI Thursday night.  The mid-level lapse rates will be getting steeper and freezing level lowering due to the upper low nosing in, so even less that 500 j/kg could produce some low-topped storms.  The lightning will be in a diminishing trend as the system moves north, but there will probably be a few rumbles everywhere along and south of I-94.  It will be a super tight temperature gradient so Wisconsin might get snow while Illinois gets thunder.

8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Gotta admit I am a little more concerned than I'd usually be about catching this one anytime soon.  Just getting over whatever the hell it was that I had.  My breathing is still a tad off but there was a 1-2 day period when the shortness of breath was getting fairly uncomfortable.  

I had a bad cough and 102 F fever a couple nights in a row about 2 weeks ago.  I get colds and bad intestinal stuff a couple times a year but I don't recall the last time I had full-blown flu symptoms like that.  I'd probably have to go back to childhood.  Thankfully I was only really sick for about 3 days.  I want to the doctor but there was no test.  They said 90% likelihood it was influenze B or H1N1 (even though I had a normal flu shot last October).  It would have been nice to know for sure what it was and why the flu shot didn't prevent it.  I didn't travel anywhere but now it's a little concerning that random celebrity cases are turning up.  It's a worry if non-severe cases are slipping through untested.

Yea.  This system really lacked instability, even down south.  Previous ridge scoured out moisture along the GOM.  First thunder will probably be after the 16th.  The western GOM is progged to have more juice when next LW trough finally lifts out.  The ensambles are showing SW flow developing by then.  The southern plains will definitely light up, but thunder could spread further north and east if a stronger low develops and brings the warm sector up.  Could also end up being a snowstorm for the GL given the uncertainty this time of year though.  Until then it looks like a boring week.