The difference in air masses and calendar are big. While this airmass is marginal, 12/5 was putrid with snow only coming from storm dynamics that needed to produce.
Tossing NAM. New v16 which apparently has some higher skills is pretty good for eastern areas. If euro follows NAM I’ll question the event but not until then.
The flag isn’t the NAM but lack of consistent guidance. With that said, having the euro most consistent over the past few runs is comforting. Let’s see what the rest of the 18z suite has.