WEATHER53

Could have created a new thread but restrained. The Extremely Highly Touted Big time improvement mid to late Feb is already half way to failure. 45 fucking days of example samples (aka “models”) showed unwavering high pressure to our north with lows cutting under us. Now the same snake oil mechanisms are onto mid March.

We also over grasp at every new index theory that comes along Too many cooks in the kitchen and way too much micro scoping acting as if getting down to 1 mile by 1 mile enhances accuracy. It doesn’t, it’s like zooming your camera up too much and everything is blurry. Try more of a binocular approach instead of microscope and you won’t get overly specific errors. 5 miles by 5 miles is more than enough “close up” Since have asked for my suggestions-just gave Another one We have been unsuccessful in trying to “mathmetize” our way to betterment so we on our own resources can’t derive a solution. AI can likely develop something unthought of which perhaps combines in some of the successful elements of the antiquated floppy disk ways .

22F for a low and 7 consecutive hours of 25 or less. 36F currently

See I don’t have to have an answer for my ibservations to be correct. Not saying you are doing this but that question is basically a model hugger deflection if you feel status quo is sufficient then that’s just very different from my thinking. Every occurrent snowstorm this season has been 50% higher or lower than just 24 hours in advance was depicting I would venture that AI is going to formulate an analogue occurrent outcome data base from last 1-25 years and get into a more current and correct manner of evaluation, assessment and forecasts. Also ditch the 7+ day stuff, enhance the short term, destroy the floppy discs.

Getting uniformly into the 40’s was never a good forecast . I peaked quick today at 38.5 at 2:40pm and now down to 37.5. Winds and cold from snow cover still formidable mid Feb

What is wrong is we are hamstrung with inefficient tools with a lot of clinging to “it’s all we got” Stop hitting those sites and maybe a message is sent. Plus now we have ninos not being ninos . Those examples of possible outcomes wiggled 0-10” within 24-36 hours and even with just 6 hours remaining they missed badly in total qpf most of which saw 4-6 turn out 1-3” just 4-6 hours from onset.

38.5 for a high Afternoon wind chills in 20s Still have 1.25” in full shade spots including board

I think more than just a few are awakening to and accepting of what I’ve been saying about models for 15 years and especially last 3-5 years. For most though it’s still insert the floppy disk and look at 60 examples.

So 3-4” did occur but not a lot

Snow showers around and winds up and most areas ranging 35-39

2.2” Kemp Mill and 3.5 two miles southeast of Frederick. Gotten windy last hour. Kemp Mill has 1-1.5 in full shade and bare full sun. Frederick still 2”+ most everywhere 36F Kemp Mill

Heavy snow. Almost 0.5” in last 15 minutes. Dark greens seem to want to stay in neighborhood right now!

1” ph rates started about 5 mins ago

Flake size picked up from 1am report so board approaching 0.25 and shaded grass dusted but no suckage to any concrete 37F

1am Rate is heavy but no big flakes 37F

Corn dust

Snow started 12:20 and temp dropped to 38.5 now with a moderate burst but light now and noisy so icey but not sleet . Light dusting on board maintaining

40.5F 20dp ready to report

When the weather babes swarm you guys, can you send pics???

Real serious radar returns. Unless it’s moving over 60mph I don’t see a mere 4 hours. Well may be 4 hours of 0.5”+ with 2 hours if 1-2”ph but not started and done in 4

Eyes now shift off models and onto precip mass to our west to monitor hourly precipitation intensity .

I think we get a 50% evap in this so I’m thinking at 8pm DCA is 44 with a dew point of 18 so when 90% rh and snowing steadily temp is 31/32 and Kemp Mill 30/31 Lets see its going to be best obs thread in a while. Not the torture of 3am and 38F and waiting on rain changing to snow

Send some pics please

12 noon 43F after a low of 37. Freaking 18F dew point and baro rising toward 30 20 cold air perfection. Radar looks 0.5” like out west

Let me ask about the streaming from off TX gulf coast. Is any of the moisture of other benefit of that going to mix in with the clipper?