FlatLander48

3 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Setup reminds me a little of Dec 2009

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20091218/

 

That's a good comparison based on current  runs, the only thing that stands out differently about this one as of now is the potential for a good 2nd thump behind the storm. 

2 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

At this rate, if trends keep going, everyone outside the mountains will be getting cold cold rain.

Think before you speak, most if not all models this morning are trending better for many across the board, and the ensemble members are amazing for most.

Not going to lie, I'm still not buying the numbers, in terms of snowfall. temp profiles are close enough and are fluctuating enough even for us that things can change in a hurry. I did make an initial "snapchat" forecast with 6 to 8 for the storm, but I'm not budging from that til 2 days out, maybe 3, once we get the NAM and other short range models on board.

2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

This run of the FV3-GFS sucked from the standpoint that all it can do now is show a worse solution in future runs. Don't get me wrong, I love seeing 2 feet forecasted for my location, but it's all downhill from this point (or maybe downhill, uphill, ….). 

Yea, if the Sanitarium was going to be busy before, it's going to be a mad house in here now.

Cant remember if this has been asked, but do the GFS and the FV3 receive the same data and interpret it differently, or is there new form of data the the new model receives?

well the 12z GFS was a shit show for the northern counties.

Do we even use the NAVGEM anymore? Anyways, we are now getting closer to it's use, and at hr 144 it has the low substantially farther west than the GFS and Euro. The Euro is a tad closer.

Based on surface maps on the 0z GFS, the only difference is that the HP is slightly SW compared to 18z. the LP placement appears on 0z sunday on the 9th the exact same as the 18z.

38 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

If I had a nickel for every time I heard that...

These storms almost always come NW as we get closer. Don't worry.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
 

And even if for whatever reason it didn't it's December 9th or whatever date it does hit. We should all be glad we have a storm of this potential magnitude this early in the season. It's going to be a long season, and everyone is going to get their share.

Just now, jburns said:

How can you be here?  Check the mountain thread.

I did as soon as I posted my last thought. Guess It's over for me now.

26 minutes ago, jburns said:

I'd hate to see you trend in that direction.

Absolutely glorious.

If I see another person use the word "trend" after one model run, I'm going to croak.

Already bought an extra large tub of popcorn. This week is going to be fun. In more ways than one lol

Let's also remember a warmer miller B transition is still possible, and could very easily happen.

Well hope everyone that is going to the game enjoys it, I'll be listening from work where I'll be selling drugs to people, so mark me jealous.

18z GFS HP considerably weaker compared to 12z.

1 hour ago, SnowNiner said:

Right?, I saw this, didn't even see the precip types but just said...that's beautiful.  Man I hope it happens, but yeah we're just so early.  And early climo too.  We'll see. 

FV3 looks similar to this, with the HP a few ticks stronger. beautiful site this early.

16 minutes ago, SnoJoe said:

Oh....and about 3 inches for this event and stayed well below freezing for over 48 hours. I'll take it in Nov.

Yea ended up pretty nice, I was extremely disappointed with the icy aspect Monday night(I'm tired of cutting trees at my parents place lol) But last night really surprised a lot of people.  -1 for all the weather apps that didn't have any accumulations even as it was coming in hard. Glad my friends knew it was gonna get rough for a bit though.

1 minute ago, Buckethead said:

Wow, almost 4"?  Nice!! You on a west facing slope?  I just went and measured around my neighborhood, the most I found was 3.25" with 2" max on my property. It's some seriously fluffy stuff.  My neighbors seem to be enjoying it too.

wow, that's a nice shot! And yea, where my development is, is a couple hundred feet higher than Boone so on a setup like this we can get a decent amount more than downtown.

Man it's beautiful out. Got home this morning around 530am, and was the first car to come up the hill to the cottages in probably an hour with unplowed roads. Felt like the first true snowstorm of the year lol, but glad to know my Subaru can make it up that hill with snow on it. Coming in at just under 4 inches at the house, loving it.

Maybe half an inch at the house, hard to tell with the wind. Better than the scene last night when it was just a bit of ice.

So...this sucks 

Oh and keep an eye on December 6th. GFS keeps throwing hints, whether it's the old or new versions, and has been for over a week now.

Just now, NC_WX10 said:

Yeah that is laughable. Still think 1-3 is definitely possible. 

Yea my "snapchat" forecast I made a couple of days ago is 2-3 and I'm sticking with that.

5 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said:

3k and nam look even better at 18z than 12z.

Shows like 6-8 in Boone. Bull crap and even has me laughing at this point.