FlatLander48

4 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Uh oh. 3km NAM has 4-6 hours of sleet for Asheville overnight tonight, during the period of best forcing and maximum moisture. Bye bye snow totals. Time to sound the alarms.  This is not an epic event or once in a generation event.  Oh and 12Z NAM cuts QPF by 40-50% as well.  Damn.

 

Not buying the QPF reduction whatsoever. 

So far I've seen 3 more does than snowflakes.

Just now, Rainforrest said:

We used to come up and on Nathan’s creek in Ashe county. 

I'm actually in that area right now, came home to take dad out to the woods before the storm hits.

Feel like looking at the weather while in a tree stand is a weird way to use time but ih well. Some encouraging runs for us northern guys. Let's see what happens. Time to really start watching the short range models. Todays the day boys.

0z Nam is agonizing watching the moisture line be just to the south of Watauga for so many hours. 

2 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Yea.  Boone liquid mean is 2.27" with 15.8" of snow

Just making sure, been checking out trends on the plumes, since I don't use them very much. Boone has been pretty consistent all day, within a couple of inches, can't complain with an average of 15 inches through several runs

1 minute ago, HurricaneTracker said:

New 21Z SREF is in. Wet! Mean up to 2.63" with 8 members over 3.00" of liquid. Snowfall mean 11.45". Few members over 30" and under 2". Lol. My bet is 00Z NAM comes in wetter

I assume that's for Asheville?

0Z Nam has just started, time to get this show on the road. 

6 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

29 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said:

Cantore is headed to boone!

Per his Twitter he's in Asheville. Mostly rumors. I seen Watauga roads posted it on fb though.

Even If he stays in Asheville I may drive down to meet him. Dude is one of the reasons I fell in love with the weather.

8 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said:

Cantore is headed to boone!

I'm gonna high key make an appearance on the weather channel then. 

Just now, wncsnow said:

GFS has the lowest amount for most of WNC and thats still over 10 for many places 

Blaming that on convection at the gulf, it looked good overall.

2 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

6 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

So...not too get too excited...but that 18z NAM has the low MUCH closer to the coast, get any closer and we've got a chance at a longer duration of heavy precip...This might be worth watching on that aspect.

They always come NW a little. Always.

Yea, my gut feeling, and this is 100% only gut based, is that by the midnight runs tonight, we might see some totals that rival what we had a few days ago, unless models do another southerly adjustment, which I don't think is going to happen.

So...not too get too excited...but that 18z NAM has the low MUCH closer to the coast, get any closer and we've got a chance at a longer duration of heavy precip...This might be worth watching on that aspect.

Got my little NW trend I wanted earlier, at least in terms of the precip shield.

24 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

BTW you all need to keep a close eye on late next week. Strong cut off low in the TN valley with long periods of upslope snow possible. In fact some places could get 6-12 easy in favored spots 

I havent paid all that much attention to it yet, but the signal is strong for a really well set up upslope event. But not gonna worry about it til Tuesday lol

Euro pushing those 20+ amounts a bit closer to Boone. I'll take it 

To all the new people here, this is the thread containing many of the sites that people use on this site to view modeling. Most of these are free to use.

Not that I'm actually concerned about this...but can I get some of that NW trend action? Lol

I've been trying really hard to go to sleep, 0z runs prevented that. Wow.

Just now, Tyler Penland said:

2 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

To think that the FV3 and Euro are both showing close to the same solution... Makes you wonder.

Ukmet on board too, no? I didn't see the 12z cause I was slavin'.

I think I missed that one as well. I don't remember it.

Just now, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

That. Is. Incredible. 

To think that the FV3 and Euro are both showing close to the same solution... Makes you wonder.

18z FV3 GFS out here throwing close to 30 inch totals again

1 minute ago, SnoJoe said:

Yeah. We always have to wait when systems come in from the south and southwest. Sometimes it seems like forever for it to start. But the SW mountains cut off before we do so I guess it works out in the end. I remember last Dec. storm, Rainforest had about three inches before I had my first flake. Me and you were getting pissed.

We might get some snow but the idea of this being a "generational" event is ridiculous. But since I'm old enough to cover several generations I might be expecting too much.

I don't want to even think about last year I was so mad. Lol idk what to think anymore about this storm, everything was consistent for a week and now it's getting wild.

Maybe the Nam is on to something, Icon isn't great for snow either.

Really not liking how long it takes precip to get to the northern mountains, may be able to make breakfast Sunday morning before it starts.