FlatLander48

Just now, rduwx said:

Talking about trends earlier, that has been a trend on the NAM.  I believe it was 1041 at one time.  I don't want to see it continue to drop, that's for sure.

It's at 1041 at hour 75 on the 12z Nam, no worries yet.

Precip appears much farther south on 0z compared to 18z NAM, through 69 at least.

1 minute ago, Poimen said:

at HR 63 on the NAM, HP over Iowa is 1040 MB. That's the strongest I've seen it modeled. 

Tied for strongest, 18z had it at 1040 as well.

11 minutes ago, Fantom X said:

I just moved down here from Suffolk County. I was there for the 11/15 event and am most prepared with all of the big snows NY has received over the past 10 years.

 

Just remember, people down here become idiotic really quick when it snows compared to up there lol.

5 minutes ago, CADEffect said:

I find it hard to believe on FV3 the HP is in a perfect spot for All the CAD areas to score here. What am I missing?

The one thing you can argue is the High itself is rather weak. Although it can change, if if was up into the 1040's or so, there would be a noticeable difference.

3 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Setup reminds me a little of Dec 2009

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20091218/

 

That's a good comparison based on current  runs, the only thing that stands out differently about this one as of now is the potential for a good 2nd thump behind the storm. 

2 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

At this rate, if trends keep going, everyone outside the mountains will be getting cold cold rain.

Think before you speak, most if not all models this morning are trending better for many across the board, and the ensemble members are amazing for most.

2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

This run of the FV3-GFS sucked from the standpoint that all it can do now is show a worse solution in future runs. Don't get me wrong, I love seeing 2 feet forecasted for my location, but it's all downhill from this point (or maybe downhill, uphill, ….). 

Yea, if the Sanitarium was going to be busy before, it's going to be a mad house in here now.

Do we even use the NAVGEM anymore? Anyways, we are now getting closer to it's use, and at hr 144 it has the low substantially farther west than the GFS and Euro. The Euro is a tad closer.

Based on surface maps on the 0z GFS, the only difference is that the HP is slightly SW compared to 18z. the LP placement appears on 0z sunday on the 9th the exact same as the 18z.

Just now, jburns said:

How can you be here?  Check the mountain thread.

I did as soon as I posted my last thought. Guess It's over for me now.

26 minutes ago, jburns said:

I'd hate to see you trend in that direction.

Absolutely glorious.

If I see another person use the word "trend" after one model run, I'm going to croak.

Already bought an extra large tub of popcorn. This week is going to be fun. In more ways than one lol

Let's also remember a warmer miller B transition is still possible, and could very easily happen.

Just now, wncsnow said:

GFS scenario is actually the best I have seen. It stalls the storm just far enough offshore to miss the worst effects of the eyewall and torrential rain. Still offshore by 120 but bearing down on Charleston as what would be a much weakened system. 

On this run, the NC coast still gets obliterated with rain and surge, and since the Storm moves SW, it goes over hot gulf stream waters and re intensifies quickly. Take verbatim, it's an awful run.

120. makes a 45 degree turn straight to the heart of Charleston.

Hour 108...Headed to Georgia...maybe even southern Georgia.

Maybe premature. but GFS through 96 is what could be considered the worst scenario, a long stall just off the coast, then a small trek SW over new warm Gulf stream waters before making landfall.(If it does?)

Hour 90, still has not made official landfall. Looks to be moving SSW from 84 to 90.

12z GFS hour 6 has a pressure at 961 when it is already in the 940's. 12z Icon at the beginning of the run is in the 970's. seems that NO model is handling the rapid strengthening of the storm anywhere near accurately. Gonna shock me if it doesn't hit cat 5 by this evening.

So , not gonna post pictures since it's still loading. but 18z GFS is pushing a Harvey scenario with an almost stall on the obx.

Here's my turn to vent. If I go to Florida on March 3rd and have to live in 40's and 50's on my spring break I'm never rooting for winter again. Ever.

i'm just glad I'm not having to worry about it in the mountains. though I'm probably gonna chase this one if it does venture a bit more west. 

...why Am I even looking at the models, I could be doing healthier things, like drinking.