FlatLander48

12z GFS with big changes for mid week. Another round of light snow for the mountains late Wednesday into Thursday.

Temp profiles for this Monday are not what they need to be according to the GFS, but the moisture is there on the Nam and GFS for a couple of inches if it verifies.

Good news guys, we're no longer living 10 days out, after a couple of months of trying, we've reduced that number to 9 days out!

Upper atmosphere is completely different, and surface is completely different. If it was even remotely similar I would give more stock to the latest 0z Euro. Today's 12z will probably be horrendous compared to the 0z, but even if it's closer than yesterdays 12z run is to the latest 0z, I'll consider it a win. (top pic is yesterdays 12z, bottom is this mornings 0z)

Edit: Reason I bring this particular part up, is were roughly 9 days away or so, although surface features are expected to be different, upper air features should start to somewhat sync up, which hasn't happened yet on the Euro.

Just now, SnoJoe said:

We have a Wind Advisory, a Special Weather Statement, a Hazardous Weather Outlook, and a Winter Weather Advisory in effect. I think they're as bored as we are. 

 

 

 

They're making sure everything works for the Fab Feb we're about to have lol.

Gonna disregard the weekends little flurry action on Sunday completely unless something changes. I'm more intrigued on monday and the end of next week. As of now, it looks like the best chance we've had so far at something nice. So let's see.

14 minutes ago, Hvward said:

An interesting look going into Monday on both the ICON and GFS. Noticed several Euro ensemble members show that wave blossoming that moves in behind the NWF as well.

looks a bit different, but add the CMC as well. I'm more excited by that than the upslope "event" this weekend.

1 minute ago, FLweather said:

3km nam not looking good this weekend. For upslope snow for the mountains. Looks like tstorms/squall line for SC,NC,Va.

The Upslope part that we are eyeing doesnt start til Sunday.

*edit: Saturday evening into sunday.

3 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Im still very interested in this weekend with the cold crashing in with a nice upslope look to the models. Next weekend is nice but meh currently. 

I'm not very optimistic on this weekend yet. To me the orientation of it doesnt seem to be the greatest this far south. That can of course change but further north I think will be a better spot to get some good action. And though the NAM is in long range territory still, it looks dry from what I can see.

Euro looks ok...overall I think as of now it is the best look. But were still in that 8-11 day range so until we get closer I'm keeping my hype at a 0.

We're close...to something around February 1st. Lack of cold air could be a killer if the storm comes back NW. But honestly it's all we have besides potentially some wrap around NWFS this weekend. As for the 45 day forecast...that's a 45 day forecast that takes us to the middle of march? I'm not promised at all by that. but guess it's better than what we have now...

24 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Is it just me or are the models backing off of the potential for this weekend?

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

Per the norm. Bring on spring so I can enjoy a hot march cruise.

39 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

Coming down at a pretty good clip in the tynecastle area. Roads were covered again. Actually a decent rate here in foscoe too at the moment. Little grains though vs the gorgeous flakes we saw most of the day.

Well at least you have something. Been in High Point and just got back to Boone about 10 minutes ago with clear skies just a few minutes away. Nice to see some snow on the ground though 

13 hours ago, NC_WX10 said:

Enjoy your last few months up there man. I left last May and live in the triangle now and would move back in a heartbeat if I could. 

Yea, honestly I either want snow, or have it be warm so I can go hiking a few more times. Probably either gonna be in the Greensboro area or out west so we shall see soon enough.

My thoughts on winter at this point: how many days til spring? Looks like I'm gonna be moving away from the mountains in May and cant get more than an inch or two. Maybe we will get lucky, but cant really get within a week of something nice in prime climo.

3 hours ago, Tyler Penland said:

GFS /euro both with some overrunning late Friday. Gfs is a little more impressive on the snow front but both obviously go to rain.

18z GEFS was quite cold after reading the main thread. This could be interesting.

I'm still gonna sit on this thread for a few more days. Yea the cold and stormy signal is there, but it's just as far away as it's ever been, so I'm not gonna budge on excitement until its inside 6 days.

3 minutes ago, jburns said:

That floods when a toilet in the mall backs up.

As someone who works there, I concur with this.

This may be a huge shock to some, but the boone mall parking lot is flooded.

lol, if ya wanna see some snow look at the live feed of the revelstoke railcam on youtube. Anyways, had a nice burst of heavy snow in Boone while I was making breakfast around 10:30, but been mostly quiet besides that.

Well...the 12z GFS is trying around the 17th-20th to bring some people off the edge. I'll give it credit for that.

Have tickets to take my girl to her first ever american football game on the 29th (shes from Brazil) heres to hoping for sunny skies and warmth!!! Go Saints!

tossing in the towel for this weekends event officially lol. I'm in high point for a couple of days and we had a NICE storm roll through last night. It's actually been quiet storm wise in Boone this year, so it was nice to see a good light show

Note, the 12z icon and GFS although different solutions for our area both have the weird low development off the coast of Florida that seems strange. So that is worth keeping an eye on.

BIG jump for the Canadian!!!