FlatLander48

Just now, strongwxnc said:

Trying to stay positive here.. Not just for this event but in general..

 

depending on how you view positive...Positive for me is I want the rest of winter to be like Monday lol. i'm over this 35 degree rain we keep getting. 

2 minutes ago, Moonhowl said:

Sunny and 64 F on Monday is positive or at least if we can't get snow, I'll take it

I'm 100% in agreement. Might even go off the mountain to enjoy it even more Might even lay in the sun lol

1 hour ago, Tacoma said:

Goodness what a shi-----------y winter and I've lived here 63 years, worst I've ever seen in those years. 

and I don't think it's gonna change. I would be honestly surprised if we almost blank the entirety of February minus a light NWFS event. There's just nothing positive happening.

GFS is really dry, and NAM finally is starting to lean towards the other models. See you guys mid February.

Looks like wrap around rain as well instead of snow.

Not to be a debbie downer, but the 12k NAM is a degree or two warmer at the surface for our entire forum compared to the 6z. 

Edit: it's warmer everywhere, not just the forum.

Man the Nam is sticking to its guns, but nothing else is budging either, and if anything other models have gotten slightly warmer actually.

50 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

moderate snow in Boone. Not sure of temp but it doesn't feel cold enough to stick.

This is not a joke. We have a solid half inch, and I'm pretty sure this is the 2nd biggest or biggest snow of the season lol.

moderate snow in Boone. Not sure of temp but it doesn't feel cold enough to stick.

Nam is stubborn. very stubborn. Still don't buy it without other guidance backing it up

Just a quick note. You will NOT get a more expansive push to the west with the precip shield with this look. Way too positive tilt.

Coming from the CMC, I think this look compared with the surface charts is a little generous, and a bit overdone on how expansive the precip field is.

1 hour ago, WarmNose said:

I’m torn. I’m definately making the trip to sugar/beech this weekend to ski but I’m not sure which is the better option. Saturday/Sunday night or Friday/Saturday night? I’d hate to miss out on what the NAM is selling but A) I don’t believe it yet b)) I’d rather not waste a night getting rained on. 

Im leaning Saturday/Sunday night..thoughts?

I'd wait til tomorrow noon to decide. However I think saturday sunday is the best bet to guarantee snow, even if it's light.

6 minutes ago, Sw NC weather said:

Wouldn’t a north west trend help get better rates here that would help with dynamic cooling.

Not necessarily. You have to have a deepening storm system to get the dynamic cooling. Just heavier rates wont really do much. We would get the same 35 degree rain that weve been getting. Granted a NW trend in this case would generally Indicate a stronger system so sortof yes.

37 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Is it Spring yet? 

Soon.

Honestly wish we could skip the potential monster 1-3 inch snow we might get from the ULL and get to Monday! wow it's gonna be nice!!!

Ukie pretty much in line with the Euro with the more eastern solution and possibly dry for the main event.  So that's about all ya need to know.

Midday models call rain with backside snow. I  am 100% tossing the Nam's solution.

10 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It's the long range NAM against the world.. we know how this usually turns out

Especially with the way the Nam has it's biases even at close range that we've known for years. I don't trust it right now.

Just now, BhamParker said:

Hey it’s been consistent and CMC is kinda similar. Euro has been back and forth and the 12z EPS was the first bad run of the EPS in many runs.

It could easily be wrong, but I sure won’t ignore it. 

Not that it's wrong, but the Nam has a HEAVY bias of over amplifying systems, which considering the factors at play, would be the reason it shows this snowy solution. Until other models fully agree with the NAM, or show a similar solution...Take that with a giant bag of salt.

Nam is meh for this weekend. Everything else is rain. 

The GFS and Nam both say the usual 36 degree rain this weekend. Unless 0z ukie and euro say otherwise, this will be just another cold rain as we get closer to spring.

33 minutes ago, BhamParker said:

I feel like the 12z Euro was a nice step in the right direction. 

sortof yes. the storm mentioned still is way too far to the east and we actually don't get a drop of precip from it I don't believe unless I missed a frame. But the LP center did come west quite a good margin on this run, which is helping to funnel winds in from the NW and with whatever moisture is left is sparking some NWFS is the wake of the storm. Still a mile to go, but that is progress.

Verbatim, it's dry compared to other models, but temp profiles look better at the surface compared to the GFS/Icon, and CMC to an extent.

CMC also brings down another bowling ball ULL like we saw earlier this season.

CMC with a better look overall than the Icon/GFS.

0z Ukie has this to show at hour 96 as the storm is happening for us. Literally no cold air anywhere near.