FlatLander48

slight uptick of snow in Boone. Nothing sticking yet.

Everything else aside, it's really cool that every county has some form of advisory, watch or warning for today. When is the last time that happened?

Latest HRRR has the strip from Avery through Ashe at 4-5 inches. Based on radar, I do not buy that at all.

I will add that it has finally started flurrying.

Nothing in Boone. Per usual lol

1 minute ago, McDowell_Weather said:

I just saw a flake!!!! Holy $hit.......oh wait just a cigarette ash lol Good luck guys I got the yota all gased up my son can barley walk from layers were good to go!!!

I'm debating if the one flake I've seen was dust or not lol

Dry in Boone so far. Let's see what happens!!

Well this thread was a lot easier to read compared to the main thread after a couple of hours away. Dont like what I'm seeing. But im done looking at models for this one.

Boone:

38/21

1 minute ago, Grayman said:

when can we start now casting and looking for trends out west? 

Technically now.

GFS coming in at hour 18 with the heavy precip north of the 12z location (of course)

3 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Lol Ashe your comment was fine. You may be right.  They may forgo a watch altogether and just put up a warning for us.

Yea, I took it back simply because I'm in the blacksburg district and they're trigger happy for those warnings compared to some lol. Figured I would let someone else answer it from the area.

Well, Ward went somewhat gung-ho with his call. I like it.

Just now, PackGrad05 said:

Seems like it is alone with that trend and overamping the system.  Really doesn't change much other than how long areas take to transition.  Everyone sees snow eventually due to the storm track.

HRRR and the NAM both. 

2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

The HRRR, somehow, warms us up to near 50 degrees tomorrow despite 100% cloud cover. 

Even the mountains outside of 5000'+ are above freezing, with spots close to 45 lol. odd

SREF plumes have increased, HRRR is coming north from it's 12z position. I'm expecting a big nam run here shortly.

Big jump north (maybe 75-100 miles??)between the 12z and 18z HRRR .

HRRR should be a good run.

Latest HRRR is North (I'm comparing it to the 12z run)

Give me one more little jump north and I'll be really happy. Good to see the Euro finally get its head out of its butt.

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Right now the GFS is the driest model for the majority of the state

Just now, BullCityWx said:

That's right where I want it. No one legitimately can convince me the opposite scenario would be the best. 

Agreed, if the global with the worst verification score out of the big 3 is the driest, I'm ok with that.

3 minutes ago, Snownado said:

There is a dude on another forum who is driving 800 miles from Tuscaloosa, AL to Elizabeth City, NC. Have people lost their minds ? Is a little snow worth driving 800 miles for ?

For the big snow in the mountains last winter, a couple drove up from Orlando, granted that was a monster storm, not a couple of inches lol

And now the thread will be quiet til the Euro, or more likely the next Nam.

GFS running finally.

Well...through hour 18 lol... the GFS comparative to the 6z run is slightly north. Mostly noise not worth looking at...but since that's all we have for now...

*looking at the 500mb height anomaly, not precip maps.

I'm gonna take my 2 inches and call it a day. I honestly dont believe the northern mountains outside of the western slopes will do much better than that