FlatLander48

3 minutes ago, SnoJoe said:

I've got a solid 2.5 to 3 inches here. Just had a rather intense squall a few minutes ago that laid down about a half inch. It's 19.2 here with a few flurries at the moment.

I just opened my blinds up because I forgot it was supposed to snow this morning and kinda flipped out. Have about 2.5 as well

Just now, AsheCounty48 said:

Overnight runs outside of Nam... Warmer...still have 3 days to go to crap, hopefully this thing sticks.

Anddddd 6z GFS says were back to normal.

Overnight runs outside of Nam... Warmer...still have 3 days to go to crap, hopefully this thing sticks.

Precip appears much farther south on 0z compared to 18z NAM, through 69 at least.

1 minute ago, Poimen said:

at HR 63 on the NAM, HP over Iowa is 1040 MB. That's the strongest I've seen it modeled. 

Tied for strongest, 18z had it at 1040 as well.

18z GEFS mean for snow is now up to 18 and a half inches for Boone

18z FV3 with 20+ for the entire forum.

7 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Oh I get it but you would think his weather weenie would show every now and then.. He missed last January snow incredibly bad... called for 2-3 day before storm and we ended up with 6-9 area wide. 

I love Brad, but you will never ever see him go bold on a winter storm. Ever.

19 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Lol... if I can make it I'll go even higher up to highlands or even wayah bald!

I'm thinking about riding up to Beech, or maybe just south of Grandfather. At least before it gets too rough, gonna be a fun one to watch regardless.

11 minutes ago, Fantom X said:

I just moved down here from Suffolk County. I was there for the 11/15 event and am most prepared with all of the big snows NY has received over the past 10 years.

 

Just remember, people down here become idiotic really quick when it snows compared to up there lol.

Just popped up on my facebook that someone shared. People are going nuts. Rightfully so I guess, but basing everything off of an automated forecast is a recipe for disaster.

5 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I will definitely be back fellas! Looking forward to getting into the game. I would hedge on the side of caution just because we are several days out. This does look "historical" but we have all see small changes and adjustments to the tracks of lows that make a big difference in snow totals.  

Well I know the entire sub forum will be glad to have you back for this one.

But if we get the northern stream to phase with our low, its game on like I've personally never seen before. 

I honestly dont even know what to say after the Euro.

One thing to note. On the GEFS, the mean snowfall has yet to go down since the whole storm is in picture, the average has climbed every single run...

3 minutes ago, BretWheatley said:

KAVL mean ticked up to 12.01 (highest up to 33.26 - phew) 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/tdorian/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html

Boone is up to over 15 inches on the mean.

5 minutes ago, CADEffect said:

I find it hard to believe on FV3 the HP is in a perfect spot for All the CAD areas to score here. What am I missing?

The one thing you can argue is the High itself is rather weak. Although it can change, if if was up into the 1040's or so, there would be a noticeable difference.

Brad. P is on board rather early for him. Via his Facebook.

5 minutes ago, Rainforrest said:

At this stage it’s hard not to get excited about this potential. 

For us (not everyone else in the main forum, just us) We're running out of ways quickly that this thing could go bust. Been almost a week since a model showed anything up or west of the Apps besides the Miller B's, and suppression is not a concern. Unless this makes a last minute straight north jog from Texas, I think we are in for a good one.

LOL, parents text me back after I sort of warn them about the storm "Well, as long as we have power, we'll be alright." Well.....

Just now, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Yea, um, about that tendency to for over-suppression.

All in all, we're sitting pretty no matter which model you look at.

I know I'm excited. Never before have I told friends that my first forecast would be 6-8 inches, and have that be conservative lol. there's still some cards on the table, like the CMC still showing the miller B changeover, but regardless we still get hit good.

Just now, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

At this point, is there any model not giving us a good thump?

NAVGEM barely gets moisture into Boone  lol

3 minutes ago, BretWheatley said:

It's looking like we'll be able to add another 12z FC3-GFS under our belt as well. 

CMC, although a different solution, still throwing out a foot and a half. I'll take it to.

4 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Guys, piggy backing on HT, and I wouldn't dare post this in the storm thread, but us mountain folk need to start making preparations NOW! Especially if you live along the escarpment from Highlands to Hendersonville and on up through Old Fort to Blowing Rock, etc. This could be a monster.

Yep, already warning my parents as they have an infant at the house to get out of Ashe.

No need to post a pic since they are all over the main thread, but the 12z GFS created a few tears of joy. that was beautiful for us. *most*