FlatLander48

Flurries at APP and at the cottages.

20 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said:

Really surprised at the inactivity on here today. Nam and 3k nam look great above 3,000 feet. 

It'll get busy later when it's closer to game time.

2 hours ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1067012888756396033

 

so much for the blowtorch Christmas 

You should probably read his tweet... they're flip flopping back and forth with no reliable solution yet.

15 minutes ago, Hvward said:

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also has flurries/light showers going all the way into Wednesday as well.

Just walked outside. Roughly 10% snow, 90% sleet. Not really any freezing rain yet.

Here is the scene outside of my backdoor at the cottages. Close to an inch of windblown snow. Couple of sleet pellets falling as I took this. Think this classifies as the heaviest snow here so far lol.

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Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

Ground is covered with snow up at the cottages of Boone, as soon as you drive down the hill theres nothing lol

1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Didn’t they slightly overdo the last ice storm y’all had? They were showing high amounts then, I believe ? But with temps probably a few degrees lower than models are showing, probably a little dicey into tomorrow morning!

Depended on location. Eastern ashe got hit REALLY hard, while in Boone it wasnt as bad.

On my phone so cant do links well, but the FV3 has a really nice solution in the 6th that's worth looking at.

6z FV3 really close to something on the third.  Miller B with a high in the NE, but weakening. But overall, closer to a solution that will work.

I'm going to be at the game as well, though i only have to walk 2 blocks lol. Yall be safe coming up.

Also, that December 2nd gulf low is there. Been there for a while now, I think that one is going to be worth watching as well, and I believe Robert has been mentioning something around the 6th as well. Going to be an interesting couple of weeks.

Bad HP placement, marginal temps, blah blah the usual. But the GFS has been a bit stubborn trying to sneak in some wintry precip at the onset of this developing low. Not really worth a huge watch, but if that HP were to slow down a bit, could be interesting.

Both versions of the GFS showing some potential at the beginning of December. The FV3 has a gulf low on the 2nd several times already.

Both versions of the GFS have a gulf low around the 2nd or 3rd. Could very well be our next storm to track.

I have a love/hate relationship with this weather, but since It's November, I'll say I love it. Just a nice cold icy day. GFS keeps putting in gulf lows at the end of each run it seems, so as long as they keep showing up, I think we're gonna have a big start to winter.

Left work at 10, little bit of sleet mixed in. Car thermostat said 33.

Gonna be rough tomorrow night regardless, gonna stock up on the essentials; Coronas. Anyways, the FV3 or whatever it's called has some interesting gulf lows at the end of the month, this is shaping up to possibly be a big start to winter, maybe not just this week.

Pair these temps...with this.

That could be some serious icing around the BRP with this setup, maybe even mid 20's for a couple of spots.

18z RGEM going bonkers again.

42 minutes ago, Disc said:

I think we can cut what the models are spitting out by as much as 60 to 70 percent. Even doing that, that's still a significant amount of ice. Rates are heavy and accretion is not efficient with temps 30-32. Start getting temps into the 20s, then that's a different story.  This is a very anomalous storm and there's really not much in the analogs to compare it to.  

 As for headlines, they can be issued, but I can't disclose if they will/will not be issued. 

 

Current forecast as of 5am:

 

12z RGEM has most areas in the upper 20s at hour 48. Seeing some 26-27 readings. That would be a disaster.

The 3K Nam shows a changeover to rain for basically everyone as the heaviest precip is rolling through.

6z RGEM has me nervous. This doesn't change over for most of the forum though 54

12k Nam has HP two ticks stronger this run at 54, vs. 18z at hour 60.

12z NAM seems a lot more realistic.