FlatLander48

Glad I didn;t get too caught up with next weeks system, looks like trends have gone away from what we want. However, the oz GFS spit out this solution for the 15th, and the FV3 had a bit of a wintry solution, though not as pronounced as this.  Short lived, but still have some hope for some wintry weather. Also...decent lake effect next weekend possibly showing up???

12z GFS, with a  much different look out west, but similar results. Except for the MOST favored areas.

12z icon with what I believe is a more realistic picture with maybe some passing snow showers on the 14th. Fun to track, but I'm not expecting much.

1 hour ago, Buckethead said:

It is really quiet in here considering we may have our first measurable snow in less than a week.  Where is everyone?

I'm biding my time, definitely not getting sucked in too early yet.

13 hours ago, Tyler Penland said:

12z euro ensembles throwing a big hint about a potential storm around the 14th/15th.

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GFS showing something on the 14th as well. the FV3 and GFS were throwing around stuff between the 12th and 14th since early last week, best signs so far.

Been watching the GFS for a couple of days now. No consistency with this, but keeps trying to throw a storm around the 12th with some cold air around. No real signal on any other model, so probably just noise. But nice to see something at least.

If anyone watches shark Tank and didn't catch last week's episode, it's a must see, had me in tears.

Outside of maybe this happening in mid January, this is absolutely the worst weather. This is "go outside and instantly become sick" weather.

This is close to something big. SLP tucked just off the coast and surface temps at 34 or 35 for most of us.

Just for fun, the 6z GFS bringing the goods for Avery County

Walked outside...Wow. Gonna be spending all day outside.

On a different note, sad to see the fantasy snow disappear, but don't fret, the hr 384 GFS has a major cold front coming that's sure to bring NWFS

Had some absolute downpours around 5 pm, I HOPE we don't get those winds tonight and tomorrow that are advertised. Could spell for a lot of trouble.

So, I know this is more of a post storm discussion, but holy hell the models were bad with Micheal in terms of strength. They were bad during Florence for a lot of it, but just a couple of days ago, the worst Florida would see was a cat 1. Now it's potentially a cat 5, and most people had little or no time to prepare.

Speaking for the mountains; most got lucky, Boone mall didn't even flood, which is part 1 of determining a bad flood. The dam in Creston never officially breached but it was close. But I think we lucky. My grandparents in Monroe went 16 hours without power. I never even saw a light flicker

Welp, got a heavy storm last night in Boone. Haven't looked at totals but it has to be several inches. That's the last thing we need right now.

Just now, wncsnow said:

GFS scenario is actually the best I have seen. It stalls the storm just far enough offshore to miss the worst effects of the eyewall and torrential rain. Still offshore by 120 but bearing down on Charleston as what would be a much weakened system. 

On this run, the NC coast still gets obliterated with rain and surge, and since the Storm moves SW, it goes over hot gulf stream waters and re intensifies quickly. Take verbatim, it's an awful run.

120. makes a 45 degree turn straight to the heart of Charleston.

Hour 108...Headed to Georgia...maybe even southern Georgia.

Maybe premature. but GFS through 96 is what could be considered the worst scenario, a long stall just off the coast, then a small trek SW over new warm Gulf stream waters before making landfall.(If it does?)

Hour 90, still has not made official landfall. Looks to be moving SSW from 84 to 90.

Some models are pushing closer to a SC hit. Basically the further south it is, the worse it will end up for us. Need this thing to go north.(or east of us). If the storm stays to the east, it keeps the winds coming from the north, and west depending on position. If the storm gets to our direct south or southwest, that's when the winds will come from the Atlantic and when the real flooding here begins.

12z GFS hour 6 has a pressure at 961 when it is already in the 940's. 12z Icon at the beginning of the run is in the 970's. seems that NO model is handling the rapid strengthening of the storm anywhere near accurately. Gonna shock me if it doesn't hit cat 5 by this evening.

So , not gonna post pictures since it's still loading. but 18z GFS is pushing a Harvey scenario with an almost stall on the obx.

12 games of football tonight. It's back.