FlatLander48

3 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

You NWtrenders are borderline intolerable.

Well I haven't mentioned it much except in the mountains thread, but the 18z just made me realize I'm out of the storm completely right now.

Where are the people that were doing the hash tag #NWtrend or something like that? I need your love for the next couple of days.

9 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

You are screwed bud! 

Not yet. I have a feeling...

1 minute ago, WeatherNC said:

Funny how the guidance is starting to converge on a middle of the road solution, split between the two extremes we saw this weekend, insanity, I know.

Anxiously awaiting the ensuing panic once the slight NW correction sets in inside 48.

I need that NW jump. Not a nudge.

1 minute ago, Jonathan said:

WPC laughing at anyone even remotely thinking the GFS has a shot...lolz

As they should at this point.

Someone is gonna get their heart broke with this storm...

2 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

Time for Dr. No to crush any hopes of winter weather in the south.

I think he's trying.

5 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Day 5-7 range is the "squash" range.

I'm not saying this one will trend NW, because apparently there's going to be an impressive cold push, (and because people will say I'm wishcasting for my area--which I'm not) but usually once we hit D5 and closer, we start to see those few NW jogs.

I'm sure it will, they all do at some point. My point is once again we don't have a real consensus in the modeling. The high/low pressure locations keep changing, ridging keeps fluctuating, timing is all over the place as well as speed and moisture. Until some of these appear to be closer to an agreement in the modeling, we have to stop focusing SO much attention to where it snows and how much.

Everyone NW of the 12z gfs complaining the sweet spot isn't in their backyard. Don't they know we always get that NW jog as we get closer? You should be cheering you're not ground zero.

And yesterday afternoon we were nowhere near a winter storm, had to go up to DC to see snow. Any run that shows a storm anywhere in the southeast is a win at this point.

5 minutes ago, griteater said:

All the great southern storms had a DGEX crush job thrown in there

2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

lol that's one way to look at it!

Here's another way. Pretty sure all the bad winter storms have at least one DGEX crush job as well. 

15 hours ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Gut feeling says were not quite done with this system yet. Not saying it will happen, but I bet we get 1 or 2 good model runs a couple days from now. Always happens at least once.

+1 accuracy for my gut btw. Would be +2 but the good news came too fast.

I feel like I'm the only one calm on the entire forum...not that that's necessarily a good or bad thing lol. But it would be very easy for the 6z/12z runs to go back to abysmal like yesterday's runs.. Not even remotely getting my hopes up yet.

Midnight models pulling people up the cliff faster than gravity can push them down. But....does it last?

1 minute ago, packbacker said:

SST's are neutral now but still Nina forcing.  CFS weeklies say that continues until end of Jan and then potentially changes.  Who knows...but based on Euro Weeklies it probably agrees based on its week 3+ changes.  

Great explanation Pack, appreciate it.

5 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Y'all giving up to quick on late next week!! 

I'll give up 96 hours out if it doesn't change. But not a minute sonner.

14 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Yep...would be my guess.  I definitely don't see Jan being BN, I see it being warmer then Dec for the SE.   I think Feb could be ugly, if Nina is still driving.   If Nina forcing backs off maybe +PDO with blocking can help, ala 1960.  If you look at 1960 Feb-March temps you see what I mean. 

Thought the Nina was pretty much dead?

4 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Yes, Boone, and Blowing Rock! lol.  

Well I hope he means east of apps and I hope he's right.  

Something will have to change because Boone and blowing rock weren't even really in it on the midday runs...

Gut feeling says were not quite done with this system yet. Not saying it will happen, but I bet we get 1 or 2 good model runs a couple days from now. Always happens at least once.

Well, the first half of my statement is correct. Get ready for an amazing showing from the ensembles!

Just now, SnowNiner said:

Ensembles have been creeping worse and worse for the last two days.  Haven't had a good run really by any model in a couple days.   Honestly I think we're going to have to have the UKMET score a coup on temps for this thing to work out for the NC. If EURO is marginal today, I'll seriously lose interest. 

It'll happen. Just believe.

Euro is gonna come out bad, everyone is gonna jump. Ensembles will be good, everyone will climb back up...again. calling it now.

34 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

JShetley, as it will ruin his call of January being done.

Lol. That will be interesting come this weekend. We'll see what hapoens.

31 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

Me at times.  I hate having to make up the snow days since I am a school teacher.  It's always sunny, 75 and with a slight breeze outside on the make up days.  

Understandable. But do you hate it as a person, or just as the teacher?

I wonder if there is a lurker in the forum who absolutely hates snow and is pounding their desk after every model run that shows snow.

Even if the EPS were to agree with the Euro,(I doubt that) aren't we in that magical range of the models losing the storm anyway?

Everyone just jumped off the cliff for this storm lol.