wawarriors4

Thank you both for the info, hopefully we all cash in with a very nice storm area wide

Yeah, noticed that as well, worried it might get up into EZF, but as you said chips fall mode here soon. It's gonna be a great wintry weekend.

Was thinking the same thing, would imagine it would come after the 12z Euro....... LOL, 12z CMC just dropped over 1" of QPF in EZF, a little over done I'd say

I feel the same way down here in Stafford, feeling pretty good. 6z Euro was a pleasant surprise this morning. My bar is still 3" which seems really likely, would like to get to warning criteria though for a second time this year.....

We always do better when LWX is in catch up mode.......

That Lolly is about 2 miles from my house, lol. Seriously though, 2-4” in and around DC and 3-5”+ down toward EZF seems pretty good.

18z NAM definitely has more precip. The 0.5" qpf line is around EZF and DCA is ~0.3" at hour 69.

Absolutely, winter feel, with snow falling = Great Weekend!

100% agree, up your way, I think you'll maximize as much as you can in this storm the WAA and get your 2" (maybe even 3"). You'll probably do better up there than down my way in EZF during the WAA part of system, Fredericksburg scores on the developing coastal is my feeling at thats where we pick up maybe 3-5"+ after getting maybe 1" from WAA.

Yeah, it is a good starting point. I'm down neary Fredericksburg and my bar is still only o/u 3 inches, but I feel like we could do better than that. I agree DC could be near 4" when it is all over. Not sure what LWX will do in terms of headlines, maybe go watch then to advisory in certain areas and warnings in other areas or just hold off completely til late Friday. At least the winter feel will be around this weekend. ETA: Seeing the map above, think LWX goes watch from maybe Prince William & Fauquier counties South after 0z runs tonight if all stays the pretty much the same

LWX is thinking 3-6 across Eastern West Virginia and NOVA into Southern Maryland and 1-4 across Central and Northern Maryland but more uncertain there. Seems pretty reasonable, if not a bit bullish, all things considered.

From LWX: Forecast Discussion An upper-level trough will eject out of the southwest overnight Friday night into Saturday. An area of surface low pressure will form over Texas in response to this upper-level feature, and move into the southeastern U.S by Saturday night. Ahead of the main surface low pressure system moving across the southeast, another weak area of upper-level energy will be moving across our area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, which will provide some extra lift ahead of the main system. At the same time, a strong surface high will funnel cold air in from the north, while southwesterly flow above the surface overruns the wedge of cold air. This combination of moisture and enhanced lift will result in a period of snow starting late Saturday morning, continuing into Saturday night. Snow associated with the main surface low looks to move in early Sunday morning and continue throughout the day on Sunday. On Sunday, the primary surface low pressure system will slide by to our south through the Carolinas. The precipitation from this system will stretch northward and affect areas as far north Pennsylvania. Temperatures will be plenty cold enough for snow for the entire duration of this system, so precipitation types will not be an issue. Latest runs of the operational Euro and NAM are in fairly good agreement that the low will move off the coast around Cape Hatteras, while the operational GFS took a slightly more southern track. However, GEFS and EPS ensembles seem to be in fairly good agreement that more closely resembles that of the operational Euro and NAM. While some uncertainty remains in terms of the exact track, it seems as though most guidance is in decent agreement. All of this being said, snow is likely across the entire area Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. Initial thinking is for 3-6 inches of snow across eastern West Virginia, central and northern Virginia, and into southern Maryland. Amounts farther north are still a little more uncertain, and depend on how far north the system tracks, but looking at 1-4 inches across northern and Central Maryland.

EURO snow map looks good around EZF. 7" at 10/1 and 9" on Kuchera......my over under is 3" feel decent about that seeing the EURO. It doesn't seem this will be quite as a razor sharp edge as 12/9 so 2-4" up toward DCA and Southern close in burbs seems pretty good. Gonna feel wintry which is great after the last 5 weeks....

Does it brush the southern part of our area? Can't see maps at work, EURO last night spit out about 4-5" around EZF, seems high given other model data. Edit: Posted this before I saw your Total QPF response, thanks

I would very much like that model depiction to play out here, 6" or so is a nice little storm around Fredericksburg, but always worried about a little North trend and the very end. Noticed it still has some snow around at 18z on Monday.....

What does QPF look like between Richmond and DC?

More consolidated at 78 on 18z ICON, the NS is about 150/200 miles further west in Ontario. Edit: It's a good hit for the area

Very true, doesn't happen often, but when it does it's so great!

From LWX: LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Saturday into Sunday, an upper level trough will move through the midwest on Saturday and shift eastward toward the mid-Atlantic region. A surface low pressure system associated with this upper level feature will form over Texas and make its way eastward. The models are disagreeing on the exact track that this surface low will take this weekend. The European tracks the low up through the Tennessee River Valley and up through the mid-Atlantic. The Euro solution is furthest north then the 12Z GFS and Canadian models. The 12Z GFS model run moves the surface low further southward and tracks through Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas. This solution would bring snow too the Carolinas and northward through southern PA. The 12Z Canadian splits the European and GFS solutions by running the low up through north Carolina. These solutions all agree the region will see some snow this weekend starting sometime late Saturday morning and continue through Sunday. It is to early to really tell how much snow will occur but there is upwards potential depending whether the models track further northward. Cold air shouldn't be problem since all models agree that surface temperatures during the day will be near or below freezing with overnight temperatures in the teens and 20s.

You're not wrong about Dec, expected 2-4" around EZF and ended up with 6.1" all because of the 50 mile late shift North. Can see that happening here too, feel pretty good being down near EZF but would love to see whole subforum cash in. The GEFS had like 17/21 showing 2"+ around EZF with 8 or 9/21 showing 6"+.......

Never knew Central VA could Jackpot til this year, my memory of the atmosphere is all off, energies must be low

Saw that on the GFS as well with the slower NS wave....hope that works out for us

Really good actually, ended up with 6.1" just North of EZF in Southern Stafford......don't think it will be that much this go around, but that storm was decent up to eZF

NS wave is in Quebec/Ontario at 114 on 12z vs over Lake Ontario/Northern New York state at 120 on 6z, that helps

Similar to 12/9/18, though I think a little more expansive to the North and not quite as much in areas that got 3-6" in December. Something like 1-3/2-4" area wide would work well.