Ajb

I mean no doubt the odds are low, but 64 (or however many the Euro has) ensemble members hardly probe the entire space of perturbations. I wouldn’t call it a complete model failure if we get some flakes.

WSSC advisory: https://www.wsscwater.com/news/2026/january/urgent-essential-water-use-only-request-issued-all-wssc-water-customers-due Still haven’t been plowed. This is going well.

Apple weather already showing 9”-11” for Saturday and another 2”-4” on Sunday.

Sleet downpour. Sleet avalanches off the roof.

5” on the ground, er, deck. Very sleety, near DTSS.

So, which one of you is Kevin Sheehan?

Are there still reduced weather balloons due to NWS cutbacks?

I'd say about 1.5" here in 20910; still snowing.

Sun is up, car and deck are covered. Steady light snow.

Light snow near DTSS. Schools open.

"The version of the AIFS available at the time of writing is trained on a subset of the ERA5 reanalysis for 1979–2018 and fine-tuned on operational IFS data from 2019 to 2020. Pressure level fields and surface fields are used for training, together with forcing data, like time of the year and insolation." https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/178/news/aifs-new-ecmwf-forecasting-system

Just measured 3” near DTSS.

Finally some light snow near DTSS.

This band (near DTSS) is impressive.

4.5” near DTSS. Still snowing.