lee59
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Posts posted by lee59
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About 2/3 of an inch of rain last night but a heavy bout of rain this morning took me over an inch.
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I hope that rain makes it to Long Island, we can use it.
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9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:
1944 is an extremely underrated TC....there were reports of 200 mph wind gusts from coastal NJ? Lots of damage there. That was a true coastal hugger.
a record hot summer too.....1944 was a fascinating year.
I think Aug 1893 is the only hurricane on this list that actually made landfall in the 5 boros?
Uncle, do you have a track/intensity map for Sept 1882 (our rainiest month ever, almost nudged out by October 2005), I haven't seen a map for that storm.
1944 Hurricane made landfall in Southhampton Beach Long Island. I would have my doubts about the 200mph wind gusts unless they had a tornado.
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Today felt as bad as any of the days during the heat wave earlier this week.
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Gloria was not impressive looking to the west of the eye. From eastern Nassau on east the wind was pretty bad with numerous outages and lots of trees down. Hazel was real interesting because it went thru western Pennsylvania but the winds far east of the center were record breaking in NYC where Battery Park received over 100MPH gusts and I believe Hartford also had a record wind gust. Battery Park actually had 113mph, highest ever in NYC
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This storm, whatever the name is, seems to have held together rather well as it crossed land. I would not be surprised to see this be a hurricane tomorrow.
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Gloria was hyped up by the news media, so when it hit some thought it was not that bad. The fact is, at least in my area, the wind damage was about the same as Sandy, it was pretty bad.
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13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:
Nothing at all like Sandy. That was only so intense up here because it phased with a powerful mid latitude trough and was forced to by the blocking NE of it. It was essentially a bigger and stronger Perfect Storm 1991 forced inland. This setup is nothing like that.
This path is what typically we get with hurricanes up here. It moves rapidly up the coast in a NNE direction and if it hits land, it hits long Island or eastern New England.
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The water temperature at Atlantic City is some 17 colder than the entrance to NY harbor.
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87 was the high here.
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There is a storm over the ocean off the central Jersey coast. I can see the lightning flashes from my house. I remember being in Virginia Beach and seeing lightning from storms off North Carolina some 100 miles away.
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A very brief moderate shower here, not much thunderstorm activity in our area.
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My high was 94.7 Still 94
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Because I am not getting a strong southerly flow, my high of 94 could be taken out. Just a lessoning of the sw breeze could get my current 93.2 right back to near the high of 94.
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MY high 94. Wind is now sw, not a bonifide seabreeze but enough to make a difference.
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No seabreeze here. As of 1PM both Farmingdale and Islip had a west wind.
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93.6 here, dew point 65, west wind makes it hotter but more bearable without that moist onshore flow.
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93 here, dew point 67. West wind feels more comfortable at these temperatures than the onshore wind bringing all that moisture.
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LaGuardia seems to be in world of its own. Maybe there is too many jet engines to close to the weather station.
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1 minute ago, Rjay said:
My wife and I were just commenting on that sky, looked great.
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29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:
Under mainly sunny skies, temperatures rose into the lower 90s across much of the region. A few locations reached the middle 90s.
At LaGuardia Airport, the morning minimum temperature was 80°. If that figure holds up tonight, that would surpass the daily record high minimum record of 78°, which was set in 1995.
Tomorrow and perhaps Tuesday, temperatures could rise in the middle and upper 90s across the region. Some locations from Washington, DC to New York City's LaGuardia Airport could approach or reach 100°. Somewhat cooler conditions should follow, but readings will likely remain several degrees above normal.
Through today, New York City's LaGuardia Airport has a monthly mean temperature of 82.3°. July will likely end with a mean temperature between 82.3°-82.7° there. That would make July 2020 that station's second warmest month on record. July 2010, with a mean temperature of 82.8°, is LaGuardia's warmest month on record.
The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City.
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop.
The SOI was not available today.
Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.766.
On July 25, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.963 (RMM). The July 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.852.
The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 56 consecutive days.
Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.
Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.
Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.
Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.8°. The probability of an 80° mean temperature in July remains near 50%.
Based on the latest guidance, including the EPS weekly forecasts and the CFSv2 monthly forecast, August will likely be warmer than normal across the region. However, August will likely have a smaller warm anomaly than July.
Finally, Arctic sea ice extent fell to 5.995 million square kilometers yesterday. That is the earliest date on record on which Arctic sea ice extent was less than 6 million square kilometers. The previous record was set on July 30, 2019 when Arctic sea ice extent fell to 5.998 million square kilometers.
With all the talk about hot temperatures and arctic sea ice melting, just to cool things off, the current temperature at the South Pole is -68 and wind chill -100.
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I was just checking buoy reports in our area. Sure enough, water temperatures in our area are close to 80, yet Atlantic City is 68.7 as of this afternoon. Ocean City Md. to Cape May N.J. appear to be about 75.
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This is about the best I can find for location of the weather station at LaGuardia, for anyone interested.
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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:
Another sharp sea breeze front.
LaGuardia Arpt MOSUNNY 95 56 26 W18G26 29.91F HX 93 Kennedy Intl PTSUNNY 88 75 65 S12 29.92F HX 97
Another day where LaGuardia is one of the hottest places around. I'm sure Newark is not far behind.
July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
in New York City Metro
Posted
I am about 6-7 miles west of Farmingdale airport. I only had 4 days with a minimum of 75 or above. Amazing the difference more grass compared to more concrete can do to the temperature. O course they may have had a lot of 75-76 degree lows where at my house it went to 72-73 degrees.