lee59

12 hours ago, Tezeta said:

Im down. We really should only name them once they reach 65kts

Ana was named and was never tropical. Then we had Bill which somehow formed in waters that were questionable as far as temperature goes. Now Claudette with a center far from the heaviest convection. The NHC is naming storms that in the past would never have gotten a name.

Overcast and very breezy here, looks like rain but nothing near.

Another nice morning, low temperature here 55.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

There are always going to be sparks that can start wildfires. But with the historic dry conditions, they are growing to record proportions. That’s really the main problem. 

I agree with you that climate change of drier and hotter in that region is making those fires bigger and worse. However, I believe, the bigger problem is the people setting them. Sparks don't just happen, I would say most sparks are from people. Campfires, cigarette butts, electric pole wires, etc. I'm with you bluewave on the fires worse because of climate change but I still believe most of those fires would never exist if it wasn't for people.

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the warming and drying trend out West is pretty extreme. 

 

That drier and hotter conditions will make any fires burn worse. What has to happen is people stop setting them. In the past it was thunderstorms now with so many people out there the fires are just rampant with the added fuel of people.

51 degree low here this morning

Nice pleasantly cool night tonight with low dew points.

10 minutes ago, STORMANLI said:

Watching TCU building along what looks like sea-breeze boundary to the east.  Fascinating to see cauliflower-like pulsing. Could watch this all day..but I'm not gonna...

You would probably enjoy watching the summer sky in Florida. Happens about everyday.

1 hour ago, tek1972 said:

I don't understand this either.
Why do storms die over Suffolk county, but just south over the cold Atlantic stay strong to severe?

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk
 

I have sometimes thought about this but don't know if it has any truth. When a thunderstorm approaches a mountain, many times the mountain can weaken the storm and those on the Lee side don't get it so bad. Could New York city's tall skyscrapers have an impact on Long Island when storms come in from the West, in a similar way as a mountain.

Only .06 inch of rain in this last event.

.02 so far for the day. We have SSE wind that will kill the Tstorms but at the same time they seem to hold together off the south shore as they pass off the Jersey coast.

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I hear many people mention the term alarmist in regard to climate change. But I see very little alarmism in terms of the actual global response to climate change. Complacency will probably turn out the biggest risk that we face.

That could be.

I think the worst time for bad tropical storms in our area was the 1950s thru the early 60s. In 1954 Carol was bad, and Hazel gave NYC its highest ever wind gust over 100mph in the battery area. In 1955 two storms within a week caused possibly the worst flooding in the history of Connecticut and affected the entire area. 1961 hurricane Donna was very bad in the area. So in that 7 year span numerous bad tropical storms caused much devastation in our area.

I have not gotten any measurable rain here today.

I don't want to make lite of the situation but if the water rose a foot over the next 50 years, we have 50 years to build a 2 foot wall. Now if the water was going to rise 10 feet over the next 50 yrs., now the concern is getting serious. I remember Long Island Sound many years ago and to be honest, it doesn't look any different, except a little cleaner. Now I admit I never took any measurements but just saying. By the way, I have read in more than one place that the sea level rise in the Miami area is not just sea level rise but sinking land as well. When the Antarctic starts to melt at a rapid pace, then we have to worry. That is where 90% of the worlds ice is and 70% of the worlds fresh water. As far as Sandy goes, the weather folks were warning us since the 1970s that it was only a matter of time before we got the next big hurricane in our area. The one they always referred as comparison was the 1938 storm. Well if took some 40 years but we finally got it in 2012. That was almost 10 years ago and counting, hopefully for those on the coast the count continues.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The major trend over the  years has been a migration of our population to places which have been subject to a record number of billion dollar weather and climate disasters. The West has been drying out with an record number wild fire damages. The big population increase in Texas has been hammered by record flooding and hurricane damages with storms like Harvey. Florida has had a double whammy of sea level rise and billion dollar hurricane damages. So now their residents are seeing steep property insurance increases. The same goes for fire prone areas of the West. My guess is that the coming years will see a reverse migration away from these areas. Property insurance increases will price residents out of those markets. So they will look for areas of the country that don’t see as many billion dollar events. The future of population growth may be back to cooler parts fo the country. But such a change may take time since people love living in the Sun Belt.

 

 

I believe there is climate change. The thing that bothers me is the alarmist that make it sound like the end. Or the deliberate attempt to make the stats seem one way when they aren't. For example the fires out west. Is climate change playing a part, absolutely. However most every site I go to tells me the vast majority of forest fires are set by people, some say up to 90% So if you really want to make a change in forest fires, stop letting people live in highly prone areas. Of course that won't happen, so I guess better forest management is the best solution. We certainly aren't going to change the climate much in the next few years. Insurance costs are always going to go up, more people in areas that get hit by bad storms and inflation. Don't get me wrong, I am for doing what we can to change any influence we have on the climate, in a reasonable way. Just lets keep our minds open to all possible solutions.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Their water usage has actually been declining in recent years. So it shows you how historic this current drought is. If the Colorado Basin doesn’t see an increase in precipitation the next few years, then they will have to institute drastic cuts. It looks like the first level of cuts will begin by by later this summer.

https://www.circleofblue.org/2020/world/remarkable-drop-in-colorado-river-water-use-a-sign-of-climate-adaptation/

Use of Colorado River water in the three states of the river’s lower basin fell to a 33-year low in 2019, amid growing awareness of the precarity of the region’s water supply in a drying and warming climate.

Arizona, California, and Nevada combined to consume just over 6.5 million acre-feet last year, according to an annual audit from the Bureau of Reclamation, the federal agency that oversees the lower basin. That is about 1 million acre-feet less than the three states are entitled to use under a legal compact that divides the Colorado River’s waters.

The last time water consumption from the river was that low was in 1986, the year after an enormous canal in Arizona opened that allowed the state to lay claim to its full Colorado River entitlement.

 

 

The population of Arizona and Nevada has gone up by some 60% since 2000. That has a big effect on water consumption. . Putting California in the mix and there population has gone up by some 6 million since 2000. Reading the article you showed, I am glad to see how they are conserving much more water now, they will have to continue to do this with potential droughts and more people. Also further down in the article it mentioned less water taken from the Colorado river because more snow melt water was available from up north. It is not a good combination when we choose to live in areas that are extremely dry to begin with and prone to fires. It's like living on the coast and dealing with ocean storms.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Northeast is getting warmer and wetter while the Southwest is becoming warmer and drier.

 

The drought is certainly contributing to the unbelievable low levels of Lake Mead. I think a bigger reason is the amount of people that are drawing from the water source. 

26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Las Vegas has received 0.85” precipitation year-to-date and 0.89” over the past 12 months.

I read or misread an article that said they received 4 inches this year. I just looked closer and you are absolutely correct, except it said they have received .93 so far this year. I also looked at the last 11 years and according to the stats I read they have averaged 3.9 inches per year.

The Las Vegas- Henderson area of Nevada averages about 4-5 inches of rain for the entire year. A desert. Lake Mead which is nearby is way below where it should be and is the water supply to so many out there. Vegas has already had some 4 plus inches of rain this year. It would seem to me that lake Mead is probably so low not only because it is so dry but so many more people keep moving there and more water is being  used every year. 

It is hot out west in places such as Phoenix. I sometimes wonder how people like such heat. The average high out there at this time of year is over 100 degrees. Not only do you have the heat but the average June precip. is only .09 of an inch. I think that constitutes a desert.

62 degrees and cloudy here. Radar shows rain not to far away. Not expecting rain here but it wouldn't hurt as we got only  1/10 of an inch  over the past week.

I kind a like this back and forth between hot and cool.

5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

6/9

EWR: 96
TEB: 95
New Brnswck: 91
JFK: 91
BLM: 91
LGA: 91
NYC: 90
TTN: 90
ISP: 89
PHL: 89
ACY: 88

Looks like the Newark to Teterboro zone is the hottest place in our area. Once again Newark leads the way.

My highs the last 5 days are 90, 92, 86, 90 and 91.