Carvers Gap

I should add that the trough will likely create a gradient where storms will ride the boundary of the Arctic/Polar fronts. Modeling will struggle mightily with setting that boundary. I would expect that boundary to be north of where current modeling is. Could it trend southward? Yep, we have seen it snow in New Orleans during several winters. That said, the MJO does not favor a suppressed pattern.

Certainly we can always strike out, but the SER has been there all winter. I don't think it is going away. Folks in NE TN know about 200-300 mile shifts in storms this winter. Anytime there has been the slightest relaxation in the jet, the SER is going to push. A strike-out for DC is not necessarily a strikeout for us. In fact, a great pattern here is often the pits or the Mid-Atlantic and NE. There is always a way to strike out at this latitude. So here are the ways we can score with a deep trough: 1. Clipper or northern stream energy w/ no help from the GOM. Prob our best bet. Always good to remember that clippers tend to trend northward at the last minute. 2. Multi-day overrunning event....look no further than last year. I might add that event was modeled for NE TN for days, and flipped late to west TN - BIG trend. 3. Slider 4. Miller A as the trough arrives and/or departs. The key is that cold air is now in place. That has been a problem for the past couple of weeks. So we exchange our active/wet pattern which has marginal cold for a pattern which has cold in place and we have to deal with suppression - still the same pattern just more cold pushing. That last scenario is an entirely different way of tracking storms. In NE TN, we have had to hope the storm doesn't cut. With these we have to hope they trend NW. There is an active STJ with a SER which will want to push due to the MJO. There is cold in place, I will take my chances. It could go dry or could be a pattern which produces a lot of snow. Where the focus has been on middle and west TN for the past couple of weeks, there is a chance the upcoming pattern could favor eastern areas which include Chattanooga, maybe even favor Chattanooga. The very best winters involved northern stream clippers and systems which trended northwest. That scenario implies a deep eastern trough which we are about to get. Could we go 17-18 where the entire cold shot is dry? Sure, but that actually has not occurred during this pattern which has been firmly established since the great flip of Jan 3rd. BTW, we have tracked three storms in just two weeks. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, but this pattern is exactly that....a pattern(meaning repetition) which has had an active STJ which has trended well north of the original LR numerical model guidance. As for Thursday, time of day is what matters....I have not looked at it. Would likely favor KY and the Plateau as Holston mentions. If at night, could favor NE TN and SW VA as well. I have low confidence it brings lower elevations snow. Looks like cold chasing rain, unless the front checks up Still waiting to see which piece of energy churns up a storm this weekend or shortly after......

We at least have to get to a two bear storm this winter. You know how storms have ratings. Maybe this will be it.

I am waiting on a storm which will bury six packs which are stacked end-to-end.

MJO map looks muy bueno.

For posterity....posterity and storm track reference. Subtract ~4.5 for this storm at TRI.

This 18z GFS happy hour run may be one for the digital snow record books.....

That Euro control map which I posted a few days ago....The 18z GFS has a very similar look after d10. Temps below zero all of the way into Alabama and Georgia.

Good look next weekend. So far it has been disappearing and reappearing on different days of different models. GFS and CMC have been consistent today with the look. The Euro totally lost it. Guessing they are sniffing something out. Finally, we have room for this to come northwest in E TN. Would be interesting if precip bridged the gap between the TR system and Sunday.

12z GFS now has the storm this weekend for E TN as does the CMC. Not a thing is nailed down with this storm. Not sure modeling is correctly even jumping on the right piece of energy yet. So, what looked like agreement this morning is anything but at 12z that said, both models have a system this weekend, just differing days. Looks like a good chance for eastern parts of the forum area to finally see something trackable.

My expectations are for 1" of snow. The bar is set low. I am sleeting my way to part of that. LOL. I think we all see some snow once the low gets by us. How much is wherever those def bands set-up after 7:00PM.

We are on the front end of this. Right now rain, sleet, and snow with freezing rain. Looks like a dry slot and then we wait for the backside of this. Total slop fest here and mess! We must have dropped below freezing as raised surfaces are now coated with a thin glaze of ice.

For those living in E TN, modeling as we kind of guessed...moved westward overnight with the exception of the GFS. The 0z CMC and Euro both have a significant winter storm signal next week from E TN into the Piedmont. All ensembles have the system to some extent.

I know. LOL. Just sucks us back in. 0z on the left. 18z on the left. Literally, I have no idea what this is going to do. I am just sharing model runs. LOL.

So somebody remind me, does this eruption help us? It is the high latitude ones which are a "non starter" in terms of a temporary global downturn in temps. Seems like high latitude makes it a lot warmer and lower latitudes cool things significantly for 3-5 years. Either way, I hope the folks near that eruption are ok

If they are going to issue that, then they need to issue blizzard warnings above 4000' if that occurs. Will be nuts up there. May have to chase to Roan Mtn.

Also, some of those super cold temps are showing up during the next two weeks. While we have been tracking this storm, the medium and LR has loaded up.

To clarify....Next two weeks AFTER the storm. 18z GFS has a big storm next weekend as does the Euro and CMC. Euro and CMC are both to the SE with that system, but I suspect it trends to the NW as pretty much every storm has. This current storm moved almost 300-400 miles west once it began to move - I think. Good look for E TN IF it holds.

We are either going to be... or or or ....but for now I am . Seriously @Kasper, I post a lot when the board is quiet, especially medium and long range stuff. But when you all are doing the discussing, it is a blast just to sit back and watch the forum go to work. And man, the 18z GFS looked good. This storm is likely the beginning of about a 12-14 day cold shot. Fingers crossed that the STJ stay active. We are likely in a good spot for once during the last two weeks of January.

Been out doing some running this morning and some other errands. Then watched the UT basketball game.................................................Recovering from the UK/UT game. I can only handle watching so much bad basketball in one afternoon, and then try to watch models after that. Update: 18z Euro looked steady. It also had a slight 25 mi SE jog over the Carolinas. Didn't make much difference to the run. Also, there are just times when I don't know what the crap it is going to do. LOL. This is one of them.

12z GFS continues the trend of bumping up totals in E TN - Chattanooga...Wow!!!

I get the downslope deal, but seems like modeling has really accentuated that feature more than normal. They may be right as there is not fresh, cold air in place, and maybe it has a bit more influence than normal due to marginally cold air. That track is perfect if the air mass is colder - just in between two cold shots right now which is a bummer.

If there is any trend I am seeing across the ARW, RGEM, and NAM at 0z it is that the storm is slightly faster and slightly east around 24 or 27 hours.

Check that, the 12z RGEM has begun to make the jump at 28 regarding mslp. Thermal profiles is a wreck for pretty much everyone.

12z RGEM looks west of its 6z run. Modeling is all over the place. Nice improvement by the WRF-ARW for eastern areas along with the NAM. RGEM will likely be west of those two models.