Carvers Gap

The 12z gfs is trying to make me feel like I live in the Sierra Nevada. 49" for TRI on that run? AIFS less but still noteworthy.

It has been my experience with these things that it may well depend on which roads get a lot of sun and which don't regarding roads. I know they started pre-treating yesterday here. Our road crew guys have somebody who is good with weather. They didn't wait for the warning packages.

Are precip totals going up on the short range models at 12z - both NAMs and RGEM?

TRI gets hammered by the 12k NAM. There are considerable differences between the 12k and 3k regarding Chattanooga and TRI. I simply refer to you all who live in those places to know your microclimates. @nrgjeff- maybe he will stop in this afternoon. No doubt he is busy!

The 12z NAM put 1.88" of ice over Chattanooga. No idea if that is right, but man.

I pretty much knew when the 12z 3k NAM just rolled....it didn't leave them with a lot of wiggle room.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 TNZ041-043-045-047-072-074-087-240600- /O.NEW.KMRX.HW.W.0001.260125T0000Z-260126T0000Z/ Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-Southeast Carter- Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Monroe- Including the cities of Limestone Cove, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Hampton, Hartford, Elkmont, Cades Cove, Citico, Coker Creek, Gatlinburg, and Unicoi 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...Blount Smoky Mountains, Cocke Smoky Mountains, Sevier Smoky Mountains, Southeast Carter, Southeast Greene, Southeast Monroe, and Unicoi Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Locally higher wind gusts up to 80 mph are expected across the highest elevations of the foothills such as Cove Mountain.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 TNZ018-040>047-071>074-086-087-101-102-240615- /O.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0001.260124T1200Z-260126T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0002.260124T1800Z-260126T0000Z/ Johnson-Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene- Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier- Sevier Smoky Mountains-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-West Polk-East Polk- Including the cities of Sevierville, Johnson City, Greeneville, Erwin, Hampton, Newport, Alcoa, Pigeon Forge, Citico, McMahan, Ducktown, Seymour, Cedar Creek, Parksville, Big Frog Mountain, Bybee, Neva, Cades Cove, Laurel Bloomery, Shady Valley, Reliance, Conasauga, Sweetwater, Harrisburg, Archville, Elizabethton, Bullet Creek, Hartford, Kodak, Madisonville, Happy Valley, Unicoi, Benton, Limestone Cove, Trade, Mountain City, Maryville, Doeville, Elkmont, Coker Creek, Turtletown, and Gatlinburg 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations around one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch with locally higher ice totals. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...A portion of East Tennessee. * WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the ice. Travel will be hazardous. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 TNZ012>017-035-037>039-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-240615- /O.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0001.260124T1200Z-260126T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMRX.WS.W.0002.260124T1800Z-260126T0000Z/ Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Morgan-Union- Grainger-Hamblen-Lee-Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA- Including the cities of Harrogate-Shawanee, Bristol TN, Paulette, Coeburn, Pardee, Honaker, Wise, Howard Quarter, White Oak, South Holston Dam, Treadway, Petros, Norris Lake, Oneida, Appalachia, Smokey Junction, Lebanon, Castlewood, Kingsport, Pine Orchard, Rosedale, Norma, Jellico, Alpha, Lone Mountain, Morristown, Luttrell, Evanston, Huntsville, Benhams, Springdale, Kyles Ford, Maynardville, Dye, Bristol VA, Bean Station, Abingdon, Caryville, Elgin, Hiltons, Big Stone Gap, Big South Fork National, Clairfield, Rose Hill, Norton, Mooresburg, La Follette, Slick Rock, High Point, Sharps Chapel, Sneedville, Russellville, Hansonville, Sandlick, Royal Blue, Fincastle, Arthur, and Elk Valley 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between a trace and 3 inches and ice accumulations between one tenth and four tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of East Tennessee and southwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 NCZ060-061-TNZ036-067>070-081>085-098>100-240615- /O.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0001.260124T1200Z-260126T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMRX.IS.W.0001.260124T1800Z-260126T0000Z/ Cherokee-Clay-Anderson-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Sequatchie- Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley- Including the cities of Lone Oak, Jefferson City, Grandview, White Pine, Oak Ridge, Rockwood, Fairview, Dayton, Old Washington, Lookout Mountain, Martin Springs, Bearden, Unaka, Knoxville, Loudon, Powells Crossroads, Athens, Chestnut Hill, Hiawasse Dam, Hayesville, Dentville, Harriman, Whitwell, Cartwright, Etowah, Marble, Jasper, Shooting Creek, Lake Forest, Bradbury, Monteagle, Clear Water, Andrews, Clinton, Eagle Furnace, Pikeville, Brasstown, Spring City, Signal Mountain, Murphy, Chattanooga, Dunlap, Palio, Strawberry Plains, Mount Crest, Topton, Brayton, Cleveland, Lenoir City, Kingston, South Pittsburg, Melvine, Evensville, Tasso, Dandridge, Cagle, Haletown (Guild), Violet, Big Spring, Tusquitee, Old Cumberland, and Oliver Springs 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 /854 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SUNDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of one quarter to one half of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of southwest North Carolina and East Tennessee. * WHEN...From 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Saturday to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Sunday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Any higher ridge tops within the warning area, along with portions of the southern Cumberland Plateau, Lookout Mountain, Signal Mountain, and Mowbray Mountain will have gusty winds in addition to the ice accumulation which will increase the risk of tree damage and power outages for these locations. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power outages. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

I love this quote, "Luck cannot be part of your safety protocol." Modeling overnight looks relatively consistent to yesterday. The 6z GFS has zero support so far. Story continues to look like ice in the northern valley.

Anyone know when we can start to see if reports on the ground match what modeling has....might helps us to know which model is initializing better and is more accurate?

Kind of impressive to see how much colder the ICON is through 38....3-5 degrees over E TN. Fits the trend of models correcting colder as the event gets closer.

Both 0z ICON and NAM are colder than their previous run through roughly 27....2-5 degrees depending on local.

Out to 27...2-3 degrees colder over E TN than its run at 18z.

Globals are not warm for next Thursday. I agree w/ @tnweathernut and others that this is a time to watch. It is very rare to get that type of cold without precip on the front edge of that type of front. It happens, but about 90% of the time there is high ratio stuff when this rolls in. Real feels. Again, with some snow under that...some locals may make a run at record lows which I thought were pretty safe. The GEM is the "warm model." Now let that sink in.

I am expecting ice. Anything else is bonus! But right....the GFS is gonna need some company. It is just a conspiracy to make us all stay up late again? About one mile into my run each of the last two days, I am asking myself why I am so tired.

Yeppers. Yeppers. @Met1985said the GFS did ok w/ a recent snow event in W NC that the Euro didn't even have I don't think. I think the Euro has better physics, and I will need it on board. But...there have been trends southward today. Also, models are cooling off the earlier part of the run....tells me there is still some adjusting occurring. Eventually, that adjusting gets here. Maybe it is hurricane hunter data. Might be a one off run. But other models are only about 50-100 miles of going east of the Apps at times.

Nah. Nobody is worried about it. You are one of us, man. Get in there and sling it. Just be yourself. You aren't saying anything that the rest of us aren't thinking!!!!

Maybe we need to talk about mountain waves more often. The GFS got bored and was like, "Ok. Ok. Here ya go. Just please don't make me look at another wind map from Carvers Gap."

Just one more lap, GFS! You can do it!!! So is this a headfake of a headfake...kind of like a double reverse. If it flips back north, this is like a double reverse w/ a halfback pass???

Paging @TellicoWx...the 18z GFS says, "There ya go." Inland runner. Man, if it wasn't the GFS I would be excited. But...I have seen it pull off a stunner at this range...just enough not to ignore it. I mean we have seen that energy get right to the far edge of the eastern valley and run west of the Apps. We have seen Apps runners. So, it makes sense to have a solution or two with runs east of the Apps....I have NO IDEA if that run is right. However, we have been seeing baby steps today which are south of some modeling - not all.

I am here for more mountain wave talk and the GFS girlfriend who just can't walk away without breaking up ten times first.

@Math/Metis the legit expert on mountain wave events. Any time I read MRX talking about mountain waves...I am like, I recognize this verbiage! Something to think about. Not saying those dots connect. Not saying they don't. I think he is from that area as well. Guru on this and interesting. The wind can be howling in Camp Creek...and barely a breeze here. That weather station there was built to collect mountain wave data. One year, the wave was so strong...it knocked over the tower anemometer. They get like 80mph gusts with high end stuff. @Holston_River_Rambleryou are correct that the river valleys are a component of this...but I couldn't explain it in 5 pages. @Rebback to our normally scheduled programming of ice, heartbreak, and 8-9 day storm discussions. Haha! Here are some sources. If one of you all wants to start a thread on it, I would be more than happy to participate. It pretty fun to track. One day, I am going up there to see the MWE for myself. Interestingly, this weekend's setup is ideal for mountain wave events - cold air damming on the east slopes, slp cutting from MS through TN. https://www.weather.gov/mrx/arealextent Also, weaker cold-air damming on the eastern side of the southern Appalachian Mountains appeared to allow warning-level winds at the Coker Creek and Shady Valley sites, with the weakest cold-air damming observed during the warning-level wind dates at Shady Valley. https://www.weather.gov/mrx/mtnwavewinds The composite maps of surface isobars (Figure 19) revealed a low pressure system over the mid-Mississippi River Valley (northwest of the southern Appalachian Mountains) with an area of high pressure centered off the mid-Atlantic coast during both warning-level and advisory-level wind events. A deeper low pressure area was observed with the warning-level wind events (compared to the advisory-level events), which resulted in a stronger pressure gradient across the southern Appalachian Mountains. In both the warning-level and advisory-level composite maps, the surface temperatures revealed that cold air damming was occurring across the eastern side of the Appalachian Mountains. This cold air damming was a little stronger with the advisory-level events (compared to the warning-level events), while warmer temperatures were further north on the western side of the southern Appalachian Mountains with the warning-level events. The combination of a weaker low pressure system over the mid-Mississippi River Valley and stronger cold air damming (a blocked boundary layer) on the eastern side (upwind) of the southern Appalachian Mountains likely caused the wind flow below 700 hPa to be weaker during the advisory-level events.

I honestly don't know where the other "streamer" is coming from". It may well be catching the Indian Creek drainage from near Sams Gap. You really want to look at the mountain on the NC side. It has to sit perpendicular to the SE winds. Could be Unaka. As much downslope as Johson City gets(and I am on the terminus of that I26 streamers). But yeah, that almost has to be Roan Mountain causing that other warming area - sits perfectly upstream for that warming to happen. That Roan Mtn warming comes right around the end of Buffalo(could be using Buffalo as well). And honestly, JC could be catching the Indian Creek funnel which connects to the Roan stream. Crazy physics in the mountains. Just another great example of why it is so difficult to forecast here. And the win can howl on Roan Mountain.