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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Temps are predicted to approach 80 here at TRI today. Next Monday, rain/snow showers are predicted. Tuesday's high is forecast to be 42 with lows in the low 20s. Wind chills are likely to be in the teens. Wind chills in that time frame may well even approach single digits for NE TN in the valleys w/ wind chills in the low teens likely. For those hiking the AT, wind chills in the mountains could be below zero - plan accordingly. Some through hikers have started the trek.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS has real feels over portions of the state in the mid-single digits next Tuesday-ish.
  3. Carvers Gap
    They 18z GFS is an impressive snow storm for middle and western areas around 210. It will almost assuredly change, but it is an example of what some of us have been watching. It looks like 2-3 strong amplifications beginning around St Patrick's Day.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Man, these are some cold operational runs. To be clear so there isn't confusion. The cold I am looking at begins around mid-month, say roughly around 200 hours. 12z models are quite cold w/ snow chances embedded - both the 12z GEM and GFS. I don't see any big storms(potential is probably embedded within ensembles as Knox has shown), but snow could be in the air on more than one occasion. The second half of March is not looking warm IMHO. Again, this looks like a continuation of the pattern.....cold -> record or near record warmth -> small cold shot -> more warmth -> big cold shot. We have cycled through that pattern already twice. I think the chances of that occurring a third time are increasing, but w/ a Spring twist.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GFS was interesting for Thursday. Both the 0z GEM and 0z Euro are still showing 1-2 amplification events incoming around mid-month and just after. This could be a WILD swing given the temps we have seen during the past few days. Highs could be 40-45 degrees colder at TRI than what we are seeing and will see this weekend. Wind chills in the mid-upper teens would not surprise me at some point between d5-16.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Ensembles are honking for a pretty good cold outbreak mid-month. Duration TBD.
  7. Carvers Gap
    I still think we are likely in a repeat of the same cycle which persisted through much of winter. 2-3 weeks of cold, followed by 2-3 weeks of warm weather, followed by a false start back to cold, and then finally the trough over the East amplifies.
  8. Carvers Gap
    After the severe window, both the 12z GEM and Euro have a fairly pronounce trough sliding through the East...and maybe more than one. That will also have to be watched. That type of setup can get squirrely. Really, the severe setup followed by cold/snow showers is not without precedent.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Spring Discussion Thread has been posted....
  10. Carvers Gap
    Sure looks like a severe signal showing up between 200-240 hours.
  11. Carvers Gap
    I had been hearing about some of the heavy snows to hit Japan during the past few days. Here is a YouTube video of some of that snow. It was just posted two days, so I assume it is recent. Pretty amazing amounts.
  12. Carvers Gap
    I thought wx models did well at range w/ yesterday's NW flow potential. They kind of hiccuped within 72 hours, but eventually reality would match those prolonged upslope runs from a week ago.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Nice way to cap the season here. We had light snow falling for almost 24 hours. The snow didn't accumulate much as John noted. Last evening about 8:30, it did pick up and coat everything w/ 0.25-0.4" of powder. Schools were on delay or closed today in much of NE TN. I suspect we get 1-2 more cold shots, but for now....the rain/snow line looks like it is over the Ohio River Valley. But this is the time of year where wx models can change wildly at times. Anything is possible.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Nice little dusting IMBY which occurred over the past couple of hours. Chalk up a "trace" at my house.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Windows would be Feb 27, March 2nd, and March 5th.....nothing huge, but times to watch.
  16. Carvers Gap
    And just to add...I do think the 12z Euro and 18z GFS have enough cold and amplification where we could still score some snow. I honestly haven't looked a ton over the past few days...but they don't look terrible.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I should add that the Euro operational at 12z wasn't particularly warm. Some chances are embedded in that run.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I continue to feel semi-confident in a pretty strong cold shot during March. As I noted earlier, timing that is not easy. I would put the worst of the cold between March 10-April 10. I don't think that entire time frame will be cold. I just think there is a pretty rough cold shot in there. If forced to pick a timeframe, I would take March 14-28th as the worst....and it could be much BN. The Weeklies have been pretty adamant that the earlier winter pattern will repeat sometime between March 15-30th. I do think we may well track one last storm. For now, the Olympics and Mammoth have my attention. I don't do severe.
  19. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS still has some snow for the Plateau, NE TN region, and Apps. It is more aggressive than other models. I don't trust it at this point. So, instead of a thread that is flatlined....just talking Mammoth.
  20. Carvers Gap
    This is a good follow on social media -> UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab 2/19/26 8:30 am Update - the atmosphere is clearly showing off: 1-day : 25.6" 2-day : 54.9" 4-day : 92.5" And just in case you thought we were done… another 8–16" expected TODAY. At this point, the snowpack is basically building an extension onto the lab. Send snacks. Or a shovel. Or both.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro has a slider around 300. Granted, it's 300 but it sure seems like modeling is picking up on a bit more colder air than it had last week. As for the upcoming system....Sometimes, E TN can get into the gig. The 12z Euro is weak and barely a storm. The UKMET is well inland. I tend to think the solution is probably in the middle. Trends will have to be watched over the next few runs.
  22. Carvers Gap
    12z scorecard. UKMET is deep inland runner and likely too warm. GEM is money track. GFS is more of a coastal but close. ICON is snow showers and light upslope here. If I could wish cast, I would take a blend for MBY.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Indeed. Good catch. How has that model been this winter? Like the GEM, it had almost nothing at 0z. Much bigger and deepening solution. Even w/ the UKMET solution, I would think heights would crash quickly w/ a storm going that big. Maybe a late bloomer? IDK.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Look at the 12z GFS with its wind direction...nearly perfect for northwest facing areas. And this is the "weaker solution" on the 12z GFS.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS does the same thing but further east. Both reach hurricane force in terms of wind strength. Whether we can get in on the action? IDK. However, I would think the northwest flow game behind that would be pretty strong.
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