Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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I am always wrong w/ the GEM in thinking it will be suppressed...but the high is pushing further south on this run at 12z
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The ICON looks overly amped. The GFS looks under amped. Blend them...and looks good. All I am doing today is throwing the models in a blender.
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I don't like that we have had feedback all over North America this winter which turned out to be false. That 6z GFS run almost had to have been. OTH, Juneau, Alaska, did get hammered. Mammoth got hammered, but really...kind of normal for them to have big storms like that. Russia got hammered. Strong amplifications and big storms kind of seem to be slightly more prevalent in the NH this winter??? Also, Italy's Alps got hammered after weeks of news stories saying they wouldn't have snow for the winter - huge snows at the end of December. I hope we get in on the action on some level...maybe not 2-3" of ice. For me, I think we need to see cold high pressure maintain its presence along w/ the STJ. Get those cooking, and see where it goes....
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You know the thing that is concerning for me is that on the 6z GFS run...we barely get above freezing at TRI from Saturday to the end of the run. The 0z Euro (can't use the 6z as it only goes out to 144) doesn't bring us above freezing until Feb 2, and has a very severe cold snap on the 30th. Maybe the real story(other than snow) is the duration and severity of the cold which could accompany this. If we get heavy snow or ice, that could be significant problem in combination w/ cold which follows. The GFS and GEM-para also both have another pretty severe cold snap around the 30th. The 0z EPS has a 10day mean from Jan 24th to Feb 3 which is 10-15 degrees BN...incredible or an ensemble to have that.
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The full run of the 6z GFS is just insanity - Mammoth like. I am guessing there is some feedback in that. The 6z AI Euro and 6z Euro were strong runs. 0z UKMET is the furthest north. Ensembles generally fit deterministic runs. 6z ICON if you want something to worry about.
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Two are for this Saturday...I threw in one bonus map for the entire run.
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Basically was the same run repeated. Very little difference. And that is hopefully a continuing trend.
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Some Kuchera, ice, and sleet maps for the 18z Euro...
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When the AIFS and Euro get close to a similar solution...that is a good thing. Very slight trend south on the 18z Euro...50 miles? Looks like maybe some coastal backing to boot.
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Here are two slides. The second slide is when the map cuts off.
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Thank you! And that is still mid-storm. It is still snowing over the entire forum area at that hour (144).
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The 12z map is almost identical. I will grab one in a minute if someone else doesn't post it. Just remember, the 18z is still mid-storm when that map cuts off. Maybe take 50 miles off the north side - maybe.
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Basically a repeat of 12z. Consistency and a big run which stops at 144.
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If the Euro locks in over the next 2-3 runs along w/ the EPS....I think that is a very good thing. I have learned never to speak in absolutes in this hobby. Arrogance would be a pathway to egg on my face!
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It isn't optimism. It is the 18z Euro. Boom.
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Most of that in the forum area is frozen. Some of you might sneak above freezing for a bit. Snow or ZR. Trended south. I threw in the both full run and storm clown map if you wanted it.
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I don't think so.
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The 18z AIFS (entire run) buries portions of the forum...and I don't take that term lightly. No idea if it is right, but wow.
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The 18z AIFS is a major snow an ice storm for the Tennessee Valley region...end to end.
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I know we are all focuses on this upcoming weekend...but the 18z AIGFS and GFS absolutely bury most of the forum area after next weekend.
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I am just digging back through my images archives. Here are some good ones. (BTW, the 18z GFS buries the forum over the next 16 days)..... Now you know why I like the Euro Weeklies control run. It potentially(if this storm verifies) hit the Jan 25th time frame from 30 days out - the day after Christmas! The AIFS hit it at 360. The GFS hit it earlier that the image, but its 288 map is uncanny with possibly near perfect BN heights. The EPS absolutely nailed the d10-15 over-running window - I just didn't post that image. Hopefully, this gives us some historical reference as we look back at what worked and what didn't from a LR modeling perspective. The GEPS was probably the first ensemble to really stick and hold w/ the overall look at 500.
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I like seeing which models sniffed this out at range. This forum had this window from way out there. Just looking at some posts(Jed and Jax, go pick up your long ranger awards). The hapless and much maligned and lowly GFS nailed this window at full range(pretty sure 384!), including the big high. Ensembles from all models also hit this at almost d15. The GFS has historically had some skill(or is it a broke clock is right 2x a day) at d16. Pretty incredible for a that model or any model. Honestly, I am intrigued that it was able to due that given its struggles this winter.
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The 18z ICON does the same. So, the models which end up with a suppressed solution....just cut off the Baja low for it to drift into oblivion. When it kicks out...boom.
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I think you are right. When the entire thing comes out, it can actually attack the big high. Without that energy...it is forced well south.
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I sure was. Not a trend we want to see north o I-40. Any model now which is trying to cut west of the Apps is an outlier. Models are quickly feeling the effects of a hp(albeit a bit weaker) which is exerting a lot of force. I suspect the Euro will trend south...but eventually trend back north. Suppression, in my mind, has always been an equal risk to the cutter scenario. It makes much more sense. That said, the GFS has been woeful this winter...and the ICON has been all over the place. The 18z GEFS is probably more important for a few more runs.
