Carvers Gap

I thought for sure we were going to miss extended summer this year. Nope. October could well be VERY warm. That does likely set us up for a very sharp flip come November if past Nina years are any clue.

The Euro weeklies control today flat out drops the hammer to begin November. There is some support from the ensemble. Yes, I know...waayy out there and huge grains of salt. Just wanted to share that winter is beginning to show up on some model runs at very long range as it should.

You just need to send me out jogging. It only rained here today when I was out running. Fortunately, I grabbed a zip-loc bag for my phone. Only Helene was worse. The weight of my shoes and clothes was ROUGH by the end of the run. Unrelated to John's post(and so I don't have to post again)...Definitely keeping an eye on recent trends for the tropical system early-mid week. The 12z GFS has it hitting the Apps at a 90 degree angle. I don't think it will be as bad as last year or even close to that. So, I don't want to raise that alarm. The storm just doesn't hold together...moving slower to boot. Some model runs do have several inches on the taller peaks of W NC. The one thing I am watching is that it has had a tendency to stall on some runs.

Great to hear. Right now, trying to guess where storms are going to pop is akin to wearing a blindfold and throw darts at a dart board. There is some degree of accuracy, but not a lot. Anyway, glad you all were able to get the event in. I am always hesitant to offer specifics, but will when I can. During my early years of following weather model snow output(late 90s), I had a coworker heading to W NC for a wedding. The NWS had issued heavy snow warnings, and I told her it might not be a good idea to travel over the mountain. We might have received a brief snow shower - even in the mountains. We got totally blanked. So, I always get a bit queasy when lots of money and big events are held...and I give any input. I have an old roommate who currently works on-air for ESPN's college football programming. Several years ago, the Euro started putting out HUGE snow outputs for Charlotte. I am talking 4-5 feet. I thought it was feedback, but the model was just adamant that a blizzard was coming. For like 4-5 days, it had huge amounts, and didn't budge even as it was apparent the storm was a no-go. Earlier I had sent him a message to keep an eye on it. I don't even think the grass was ever covered. When referencing another forecaster.....I think he used the word - charlatan. LOL - yikes. I gladly leave the real stuff to Jeff and Co. Ha!

How did things turn out?

The Euro Weeklies ensemble and control is hinting at the first strong cold fronts of the season beginning in mid-October. Waaaay out there(huge grains o salt), the ensemble is hinting at sharp turn to colder during November w/ a PNA ridge popping out West and hooking into the AO region. Base warm pattern until mid Oct, transition w/ retrograding ridge into the West, and then looks like potential cold for November.

MRX is mentioning the potential for heavy rain tomorrow. The areas with the greatest chances for 2+" of rain are I81/75west onto the Plateau. Just a heads up.

I will give it a go. Hopefully, some of the Nooga folks will chime in. Tough time of day to get a good grasp on. Afternoon storms are a risk in this pattern. Signal Mountain is also an entirely different ball game due to its elevation. If it is anything like my area here in TRI, modeling will often miss things above 1500'. Firstly, I am not a good short range summer weather source. I did check the RGEM, HRRR, and NAM 3k this morning for your local. I think what you shared is probably accurate. The RGEM is a hair earlier than 7PM. It is worth noting that modeling has been hit or miss with afternoon storms of late over E TN - i.e. not overly accurate. A lot of these lines and cells have been slow movers. By late morning or lunch today, if it were me...I would really keep an eye on short range, hi-res modeling which is derived from radar. The Signal Mountain NWS point and click is this for the entire day (25% from 4-7PM).... A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. South wind around 5 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.

On the way back from Knoxville yesterday, we drove through an absolute tempest around Kodak. The Morristown/Dandridge area did really well with rain yesterday as did most of Knoxville. TRI has turned predictably dry as this is normally our driest time of the year. There should be some welcome relief this week.

We had several nearly stationary t-storms this evening over several areas of TRI.

Looks like a cutoff low rolling through next weekend, and maybe one more after that. Hopefully, that ends the heat.

My eye spies a very slightly-ish positive PDO. Get those warm SSTs along the NE PAC coastline, and we are in business.

Real feel here is 89. Humidity is low thankfully. Temps in the shade aren’t bad. Mornings aren’t bad.

Summer's last gasp coming up this weekend and next week? I think so. LR ext modeling and general ensembles depict BN heights dropping into the Aleutians. That should pop a ridge out West, and goodbye summer heat. But before we get there, it is gonna get HOT. Early October should feature a full blown transition to generally normal to BN temps.

The 30mb QBO has fallen to -22.28 and still dropping. I think it levels off(hits the bottom of the parabola) sometime during December or January. That likely promotes chances for some HL blocking episodes. I don't see that in modeling yet, but that is more of a mid-Nov to late Dec thought anyway.

Sure enough, it looks like modeling is trending towards much AN temps during the next 3-4 weeks. We have seen the aforementioned head fake towards cool too many times to count. The one thing in our favor is that E TN is not in a drought. That could help the entire region regardless of drought status as the drought is no forum wide. We will see. Looks like there is another cold front maybe around Sept 20th before modeling really drops the heat hammer. Let's hope that is wrong!

Latest seasonals CANSIPS/Euro are showing a nasty trend towards a juiced SER. I think west of the Apps, we still have our chances. It is almost like modeling is overdoing the Nina. Plenty of time for things to change. The daily CFS seasonal is decent until December.

What are you sitting at for the day?(total)

Knoxville south of I40-75 is on the rain train.

I know exactly where that is! Interestingly, one of my kiddos was just across the street from there about an hour ago. We just finished w/ our second line of storms here in Kingsport. Fortunately, we have been spared the really severe stuff. I did see some reports out of South Knoxville of half dollar size hail - but that is second hand information by me.

***warning has expired*** Tornado warning posted for Oak Ridge and Oliver springs. Box is heading eastward.

I never like going into winter with a drought(if one wants a snowy winter). We are getting more rain this morning, and it is forecast agains this weekend. I mean I can remember recent fall months where we received less than 0.2" of rain at my house total for a 30d timeframe. So, this is welcome.

Good perspective. Yes, the western half of the forum is very dry. This late summer and early fall season has kind of flipped from the recent decadal patterns for the forum area. This is the first time in a very long time that July/August rains have returned to an area where they used to be common(E TN). This recent stretch of La Ninas has thrown a wrench into what used to be NE TN's rainiest month - but not this year.

We had rain all morning. It lasted for 6-7 hours. Honestly, this is not the normal pattern that we are experiencing when compared to the last decade or so with extended summer. Our daytime highs for August finished -3F BN. We hit 90F only twice which is well below normal. We were well AN on rainfall. With the exception of Friday, that pattern appears to continue w/ maybe a ridge rolling through from time to time. The leaves here have started changing. There are some trees behind the bank at the YMCA which are fully red. Now, that isn't the norm, but man. Most of the trees along the river are turning yellow, but maples are definitely starting to show color. That fits with the earlier than normal bird migration. I can attest to the earlier migration as the hawks appeared here about two weeks earlier than last last year - they migrate through here as it is is a flyway. I have seen several in the past couple of weeks. They like my street for whatever reason. Of note, leaf changes have started early here during the past several years - only to pause during September. I would guess right now that the leaves are going to peak 7-14 days early this year when compared to last year, and maybe 5-7 days quicker than the norm. I noticed lots of leaves on the paths which I run on - again, earlier than normal. A prolonged period of warm and dry will pause that process a bit. Most leaves change due to the length of day, but cold mornings will accelerate that change or delay it. The good thing about all of this is that we are unlikely to have to erase large anomalies of heat over NA, and we should have normal to AN ground moisture (comparative to fall) in our region. That soil moisture content alone could allow for cooler temp intrusions earlier in the season. I have to think some part of November and December is gonna be really cold against the norms. Fingers crossed. @Holston_River_Rambler, is gonna have to provide a wooly worm update, or other(elk?) seasonal tells.

The first NCAA football weekend of the year. This fall appears to be beginning at or below normal for temps. I am sure we will have some warmer temps as fall progresses, but what a great way to start it. Carry on