Carvers Gap

For TRI folks, the trend on some modeling is that the energy is further west, and that causes the precip to drop south without pivoting over us. That shifts the pivot further south and west. Unfortunately, I think some areas(if this is a true possibility) will be rooting for different trends. At TRI, we do not want this phasing any further west than it is(per the NAM). One whiff scenario for TRI is that the energy phases further west as it drops south. The entire storm pivots under TRI, and then up the coast. For now, the 6z RGEM remains steady w/ its depictions as does the 6z Euro, 6z AIFS, and 6z GFS. The 6z NAM would 100% be a problem for TRI.

I have seen systems like this stop right at the crest of the Apps. I do think we see some light snow from the northern stream. I remain unconvinced this gets enhanced by the Atlantic...for most of E TN (edit). Backing would help prolong the light snow. I think those high end amounts are incredibly unlikely unless that slp shifts to the coast or just inland. I could see far E TN counties benefiting for sure due to orographic lift. This looks like "an east of I81" type of storm - so far. Tomorrow likely dials in this track. Need some big moves overnight for anyone west of the foothills to score more than 1-2" with this.

Bout right there. I rarely get good snows in IMBY from a slp east of Hatteras. I still tend to think this is going to have to be home cooked northern stream energy at the end of the day - IF that is the slp location. But sometimes we get that lee side low which backs precip. For me, this is a little too finesse for my liking. Just need a good ol' fashioned low cranking 50 miles inland. Any energy handoff is almost always a problem for E TN.

Any maps yet?

Deciphering the weather posts of Bouncycorn was not on my bingo card for today.

The 18z EPS had ticked up as has the 18z GEFS FWIW.

My rule of thumb…get the slp west of Cape Hatteras if we want help from the coast in E TN. Otherwise, we need lift from the west slopes of the mountains. I still wouldn’t discount a LSL…anyone see it? Lee side low

And that “should” bring precip with it if other cold winters are used as analogs. I don’t trust the coastal enhancement, but I do like light snow from the northern stream with high ratios. If this turns into a NE blizzard, NE TN and SW VA often finds themselves in that axis even if just light amounts near the genesis of the storm. If DC can end up in the storm, that is usually a good sign for us. Kind of a weirdly displaced Miller B.

Any GoogleAI updates for 12z and/or trends?

Yep. The best that a coastal could do is to back the flow which is basically what the GFS and GEM-para do. I have not looked closely, but I almost wonder if there is a weak slp scooting through the Piedmont or a lee side low(LSL). But really, this is kind of a mix of a clipper and an anafront. Can we get a phase? IDK about that.

When looking at the weeklies...the pattern begins to reload around the 8-9th. I tend to agree w/ JB that the next really good window after this weekend(excluding clippers) is around mid-Feb. And that maybe could be a good window.....

The GFS/GEFS is going to have to have more support. The 12z GEM-para does lend some support. However, the GFS is on the far west side of guidance. I still kind of think we are depending on the northern stream energy for snow, and not coastal backing. That type of cold should bring snow showers with it. The GFS isn't an outlier at this point, but it's close. Other models are taking baby steps towards it, BUT...the window is rapidly narrowing for this to trend westward. Our best path forward is for the northern stream system to be stronger.

Did the 6z GoogleAI trend West? JB is saying it jogged well west. I can't tell if that is just over the NE or here as well. With the 6z GFS, 0z CMC, and 0z Euro west of their previous runs....good trends, but will they hold? No idea. Did the 6z Euro freeze at hour 57?

It looks like the 6z GFS is also west of its 0z run. Close call w/ overnight modeling.

Re: Weekend…A small uptick in snow for SE KY, SW VA, and NETN with the 18z Euro op. Precip shield made it over the mountain slightly that run and northern stream energy was decent(prob bigger driver in increased snow). SLP was further off the coast though - east. Still a tough sell. More snow with that run, but having to depend on a low that far off the coast is usually not good.

Just looking at the short range models...there looks like some light snow showers moving through Wednesday night into Thursday. With these temps...very little precip can go a long way.

That....was an east trending run for sure. I am kind of with @tnweathernut on this one...just looks like a storm which will hit eastern NC right to the coast. I do think we see some light snow or snow showers w/ the energy that dives into it.

Ensembles ticked east…deterministic models did not at 12z. 12z models were generally west or the same with slp placement including Google(?). The precip shield was less - reference previous page. Do I think it will trend eastward?….ensembles say yes and I tend to agree. Deterministic runs at 12z and individual ensemble members were generally west of mslp.

If AI asked the Euro Weeklies(today) how long until spring arrives. It's answer would have been, "Long time."

That map is accurate for MBY. An inch of snow prior to the ice, and about 0.5" of snow last night. The roads were TREACHEROUS this morning in Kingsport. Solid sheet of ice w/ snow on top. Wind chills were around 6F when I got up. They have hovered there all day w/ the current gusts.

The 12z GEPS is further back w/ the surface high pressure over TX than it was at 12z. The 12z Euro is further east w/ the surface high pressure over TX than it was at 6z. That seems to be a pretty significant difference. The amount of hp over the top in New England is also important. The 12z Euro had more there than compared to 6z...and that may well have shunted the moisture to the coast.

The following evolution looks reasonable to be. Both the 12z GEPS-par and 12z Euro are very similar. The Euro was missing some juice. The 12z GFS, Euro, and GEPS-para are slightly west of their previous positions with the slp. Below is a 12z comparison (not comparing to 6z runs) of the GEPS-para and Euro. Left is GEFS-para and right is Euro. Generally, that is pretty good agreement for low placement. Per the GEPS-para, I tend to think the northern stream system will be stronger over the eastern Tenn Valley than the Euro has. The Euro tends to be a little biased towards drier systems. The GEPS-para was the first to nail mixing issues over NE TN with this last system. Can it trend west to northwest? Sure, but that is a tighter window with each passing run. Hour 114 Hour 128

I think when we see partial phases...they just don't get worked out really well until inside of 3-4 days. I do think this looks more like a Carolina special. My investment level is low, but think light snow is possible with this for NE TN and SW VA. I am not even sure the northern stream energy is even being modeled correctly. Preferably, we would like that negative tilt maybe 150 miles further west in Georgia. But that phase is so finesse...just tough to know. I would feel good if I lived in the Piedmont, and keep an eye on it if in NE TN. NE TN may well score w/ the northern stream energy before it phases, catch a little bit of backing, and see some light snow as a result. But as we have seen this winter...these things do change quickly from time to time. Of note, there are a lot of small pieces of energy directly behind this. JB noted last night, and I tend to agree, this looks like a lot of lighter events until after Feb 10, and then the STJ fires again w/ cold in place.

The 12z Euro slp is further west w/ a negative tilt trough. For whatever reason, the surface doesn't respond as strongly. They synoptics are better w/ 12z. I don't think that means much for the western 2/3 of the forum area. This is probably something the eastern 1/3 of the valley maybe has a 30-40% chance of sneaking into the game - if that. 12z left. 6z right.

It might be a whiff on the surface...it is not a whiff on the vort maps. Looks similar to 6z.