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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    I was sitting here w/ the sun shining through the clouds, and noticed the sun disappear....started snowing almost immediately after. I have seen that happen only a few times...once out West.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Next weekend still looks like a pretty significant upslope event as yet another in a series of strong cold fronts impacts the region.
  3. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS is just one system after another, beginning on Weds.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I am seeing reports that roads are turning white in Lebanon, Virginia.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I wouldn't completely rule out something even Weds or Thurs...one scenario is a slider w/ mostly rain. Another is a similar setup, but it backs the flow as the front passes. Might be room for a slp or weak wave to ride that front.
  6. Carvers Gap
    We gonna run this back again next Saturday as well....0z GFS and Euro have a pronounced upslope event advertised???
  7. Carvers Gap
    I was thinking maybe around 2:00PM for TRI and also a friend of mine noted this as well. I would think Knoxville is a hair later than that - I hope so, because I have one commuting!!!!
  8. Carvers Gap
    I would be really surprised if you don't do halfway decent w/ this...good elevation and just the Plateau's ability to squeeze every, last drop from the atmosphere.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Pretty steady model runs by the RGEM. The 12z RGEM barely budged.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Probably just the 3k NAM and its elevation issues...but the 3k put 40+" in the Smokies. That is Sierra Nevada level stuff.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 0z RGEM is a decently marked increase. Shift west with short range models at 0z.
  12. Carvers Gap
    With that 10:1...could have bigger amounts?
  13. Carvers Gap
    Throw in some Eastman Bubble for good measure....
  14. Carvers Gap
    I am ready for some bouncy corn.
  15. Carvers Gap
    If it can get to Roan Mountain State Park…I may drive.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Anybody have a GoogleAI update? My new washer is hurting my wx model slush fund.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I hate ULL setups. They (edit)can be really, really good or really, really bad. Pretty much Tennessee basketball this year…
  18. Carvers Gap
    You are gonna need to share some of that plume.
  19. Carvers Gap
    I hope the narrative is this…Carvers was really slow to get on board with the best snow we have had in years. LOL. I am still not on board, and might not be until I see the whites if it’s eyes! Haha.
  20. Carvers Gap
    My go-to models most winters are the RGEM and Euro at this range. The AIFS is part of that club now.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Good run. Good model to have a good run with.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I think somehow the Plateau finds its way to 3-4" this weekend either with upslope or initial orographic lift w/ the main wave of precip.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Reminds me of 17-18 at the end of December. JB mentioned that the last half of February might have a strong STJ component along w/ cold. I tend to agree with him though I haven't looked at the Weeklies today. I kind of think nickel and dime stuff is the rule for right now. It is crazy cold with low wind chills outside right now. I really don't even want to think about the weekend cold!
  24. Carvers Gap
    That looks reasonable, but I would still cut maybe 50% of my totals in western Sullivan Co. I think the mountains are gonna get hammered due to orographic lift. Anywhere w/ good NW facing slopes could score. This "should" wring out every, last drop. Bitterly cold air masses have held surprises in NE TN. I don't like the 18z GFS trends, but the 18z RGEM looks reasonable. Anyone know when these vortices and air masses are over NA where they get sampled better? I think Tellico noted we would see one last truncation w/ that. I agree.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Knoxville has been beating us pretty badly of late - way more during the past 4-5 years. This current pattern is definitely a pattern we can score with in NE TN. No idea if that actually happens. I just don't like the dynamics w/ this current setup. I have been burned both ways - it over performing or under performing. A strong low on a cold front is notoriously tough to forecast. The partial phase I don't think is worked out quite yet. But I do agree...a strong ULL crashing into NE TN will often produce light snow regardless of setup...the bigger amounts I don't trust. Lighter amounts appear probable.
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