Carvers Gap

There could always be surprises, but precip amounts are very light...and has been on modeling for several days in E TN. I have zero knowledge of Signal Mountain w/ these types of setups. I looks to me that south of I40, this is rain...but at elevation I just don't know. The MRX graphic looks about right to me.

The HRRR and 18z 3k NAM are all snow for NE TN, albeit very light amounts. The 18z RGEM is rain. When is onset for this?

My skies are clear for sure. It hasn't been warm today at all. When I went running this morning, it was 12 degrees I think...one of the top 5 coldest running mornings(this winter) for me. Yesterday was by far the worst. I made the mistake of running down on the river(you know where it is...NI).

The current 500 pattern did not get can kicked. It arrived on Jan 12th as we noted for at least a couple of weeks prior that it would. I don't think anyone is on a sugar high...The upcoming weekend event was never real as there was a blatant error on GFS modeling where it connected w/ an eastern Pac storm. However, they still had to send hurricane hunters out to make sure. But folks are allowed to get excited. We only live once. And can-kicking is just part of it in the Upper South. edit: The biggest adversity we are facing is drought.

Every six hours we pull out the sorting hat.

Just looking at ensembles. Somebody out west is saying, "Every time we get an NAO, it hooks into the PNA ridge." Throwing shade at the one billion times the NAO has hooked into the eastern ridge. I really have no idea what happens when the NAO hooks into a PNA ridge, but guessing that is a good storm signal?

Ah, crap. Our transmission went out on the old washer. It was more expensive to replace than it was to by a new one. We installed the new one yesterday...modeling was good today. I am not saying it is the new washer, but if we get two new washers in the forum....could be epic. Maytagmegeddon.

All three 12z ensembles have this window at 500. And this isn't event remotely the first run where they have had this. I think the deterministic models are just now catching on. Ensembles have been leading the way on this. I grabbed a 7d most opportunistic over-running window for each model. I have attached the 10d temp mean for d3-13 on the Euro(still hasn't finished running).

Yeah, man. I don't wan't any part of that...but the wx pattern is honking for over-running with that gradient. The thing that has concerned me for a bit is ice which is then followed by extreme cold. I saw that happen once in the Piedmont. @Met1985might be able to comment on that. Folks were dangerously (CO poisoning risk) bringing their grills into their homes. If we want winter storms, we need that gradient a bit further south still as it could gradually drift north. OTH, if models are just now getting a good handle on this...tornado alley could get ice and snow. Need to see a few more runs, BUT modeling has already kind of circled this timeframe as one to watch. If forced to forecast it now, I would say southern KY is gonna get hammered. I just don't know about the rest of the forum. But the cold has been very consistent on ensembles - very consistent for this time frame for the entire area.

Yes. that is how to do it. @Daniel Boone, that is old school right there. "International Falls cold" was normally a precursor of good things here.

Turn on the hot donuts sign. New washer is working. Got my run in, and my coffee.

I sure hope this is because we are getting better data. The beginning of this window is still about 7 days out...but this trough amplification looks like it means business. The AIFS EURO is less enthused, but still has some interesting events d10-15. The good thing is that models "might be" recognizing the MJO window that is seen on CPC along w/ the climatology of recent years which is to send severe cold into the nation's mid-section during La Nina during late January. I doubt it is this extreme but 40 degree departures below normal during our two coldest weeks of the year.....

Man....not sure if the headline from the 12z Euro is cold or snow or ice. If there is severe in there somewhere....it has pretty much everything.

The 12z Euro......................fire.

This is basically the same look by the GFS and GEM....this is the look you want at 500. Big, cold high sitting over the top w/ a little bit ridging just to our east. The 12z GFS does this multiple times. The GEM looked like it was set to do the same.

I would classify that as an over-running pattern....but they are tricky, tricky, tricky to nail down as the key is where the west-east gradient sets up. We might want that gradient a bit more south than what is portrayed. The 12z GFS 10:1 clown map on WxBell is crazy.

Models have really highlighted the 25th as another timeframe for amplification...or even a day or two just after. I am a little surprised to see things light up before the 25th here at 12z. Maybe modeling underestimated the cold as the "ridge" rolls through. IDK. It is telling that folks were saying their lows were bottoming out below forecast lows. That could just be clear and calm nights...but it could also mean modeling is underestimating cold air masses.

This is the tricky part. The ticket is going to be getting a hp over the top of th STJ and not a low in the GLs....and then modeling accurately portraying the gradient. Both the GFS and GEM now have at least one system(possibly two) within 7 days. The GFS seems to hint there is more after that. Time will tell if either are correct.

Man, I hate when models flirt with over-running patterns. Tough pattern to nail down(productive if you can hit jackpot), but both the GEM and GEFS have put that clearly on the table at 12z.

Yeah, man, the GEM says, "Hold my beer, GFS."

The CMC evidently is gonna take more than one swing. This is the gradient pattern that we have seen teased by modeling. Slider city if it can hold.

Evidently, we need to talk about Feb 15 a bit more? 12z GFS...

I'd have to go back and look in the thread, but I think we ended up with 25-30" here. Crazy, crazy month.

The worst winters are super Nino or super Nina. I still think we end up doing ok this winter due to the amount of cold in NA and its ability to get south this winter. We have had many winters which were late bloomers. We have also had several dry La Nina years recently. I think folks in NE TN kind of already know the drill w/ these recent La Nina winters. Mid-state and west Tenn have done decently well with Nina winters. TRI is on the end of the state where everything kind of fizzles out during La Nina winters. Sorry to share our "riches" with the rest of forum this winter! Haha. Again, I think things perk up. Things can change quickly for better or worse!

The biggest issue is widespread drought. It has picked up steam this winter regardless of weather pattern. Reminds me of 17-18 which was so cold at times but the STJ was not there. The other thing is the northern stream is out of sync with the STJ…meaning its vortices are not connecting with STJ impulses. I see some signs of that relenting after the 25th. I am not sure how long that window lasts. Some modeling has Feb holding a SE trough w a PNA ridge. The GOA low is present on some modeling late, but generally that has been a red herring. I still remain optimistic that we see wintry conditions. There is a lot of cold air in modeling right now. I have to think we score with that on the table.