Carvers Gap

The 12z Euro......................fire.

This is basically the same look by the GFS and GEM....this is the look you want at 500. Big, cold high sitting over the top w/ a little bit ridging just to our east. The 12z GFS does this multiple times. The GEM looked like it was set to do the same.

I would classify that as an over-running pattern....but they are tricky, tricky, tricky to nail down as the key is where the west-east gradient sets up. We might want that gradient a bit more south than what is portrayed. The 12z GFS 10:1 clown map on WxBell is crazy.

Models have really highlighted the 25th as another timeframe for amplification...or even a day or two just after. I am a little surprised to see things light up before the 25th here at 12z. Maybe modeling underestimated the cold as the "ridge" rolls through. IDK. It is telling that folks were saying their lows were bottoming out below forecast lows. That could just be clear and calm nights...but it could also mean modeling is underestimating cold air masses.

This is the tricky part. The ticket is going to be getting a hp over the top of th STJ and not a low in the GLs....and then modeling accurately portraying the gradient. Both the GFS and GEM now have at least one system(possibly two) within 7 days. The GFS seems to hint there is more after that. Time will tell if either are correct.

Man, I hate when models flirt with over-running patterns. Tough pattern to nail down(productive if you can hit jackpot), but both the GEM and GEFS have put that clearly on the table at 12z.

Yeah, man, the GEM says, "Hold my beer, GFS."

The CMC evidently is gonna take more than one swing. This is the gradient pattern that we have seen teased by modeling. Slider city if it can hold.

Evidently, we need to talk about Feb 15 a bit more? 12z GFS...

I'd have to go back and look in the thread, but I think we ended up with 25-30" here. Crazy, crazy month.

The worst winters are super Nino or super Nina. I still think we end up doing ok this winter due to the amount of cold in NA and its ability to get south this winter. We have had many winters which were late bloomers. We have also had several dry La Nina years recently. I think folks in NE TN kind of already know the drill w/ these recent La Nina winters. Mid-state and west Tenn have done decently well with Nina winters. TRI is on the end of the state where everything kind of fizzles out during La Nina winters. Sorry to share our "riches" with the rest of forum this winter! Haha. Again, I think things perk up. Things can change quickly for better or worse!

The biggest issue is widespread drought. It has picked up steam this winter regardless of weather pattern. Reminds me of 17-18 which was so cold at times but the STJ was not there. The other thing is the northern stream is out of sync with the STJ…meaning its vortices are not connecting with STJ impulses. I see some signs of that relenting after the 25th. I am not sure how long that window lasts. Some modeling has Feb holding a SE trough w a PNA ridge. The GOA low is present on some modeling late, but generally that has been a red herring. I still remain optimistic that we see wintry conditions. There is a lot of cold air in modeling right now. I have to think we score with that on the table.

It is obvious there are huge problems with wx models right now. Anyone know which run that will affect once the data is collected?

This is what I was suggesting to @Daniel Boone. With the coastal idea kind of exiting...I wonder if the end result is a more enhanced cold front w/ some small waves riding it? RGEM sure looked that way....And that makes sense given the strength o the cold front.

I feel confident that we have the equipment already in place in Kingsport which can seed clouds. Those little ground based, propane powered silver iodide dispersers...ain't got nothin' on the thermal ability of the Model City.

Ground based and airborne cloud seeding. Probably is not a conversation for this thread, but in WY they utilize silver iodide to enhance snowfall in the Salt Range in order to help squeeze out water from systems. I have always wondered how that affects downstream weather, ie the system has less precip after it is treated. I have seen the ground based system in Star Valley, WY. It is near Grover up on a hill. It is the snowiest place in that entire valley. https://cowboystatedaily.com/2022/12/08/not-voodoo-wyoming-expands-cloud-seeding-amid-prolonged-drought/

The biggest thing is that northern stream vortices are out of phase w/ STJ energy. The EURO AIFS shows what happens when they are in phase.

The interesting thing will be this for the weekend. Now that modeling is downplaying the coastal storm...I wonder if the front itself in the Tenn Valley gets a bit more juice added back?

I think three dimensional modeling(forecasts and not radar) like an MRI is what the next big thing will be. I do fear altering weather patterns will also be a part of that matrix. There are already machines which enhance snowfall in western WY. I hope we never reach a time where we know the weather to the point that there are no surprises.

Whew! The new washing machine is installed and operational. Hopefully, no more laundromats for a bit! Though, I am jealous of the speed that a person can do laundry in those places. We washed and dried 6 loads in one hour! I know - Dear Facebook. Modeling continues to honk at very cold weather between the d8-12 mark. Sometimes modeling has overdone the cold at this range. But for now, some really cold temps on the 12z Euro and GEM as Jeff mentioned. Both of those models have identified cold snaps pretty well this season. For now, the day8-10 window looks good for a winter event, but you all know the rules...roughly between the 24th-27th. I do think one flaw that we need to be watchful for...cold has been oversold on modeling all winter OR completely missed. Usually the solution is a cold front, but is modified from the original version. Probably the case this time, but...every once in a while strong cold fronts are under-modeled! The TPV getting trapped looks legit. We need a wave to ride the Arctic front if that front verifies. That is the big ticket! Great discussion. I have enjoyed reading it.

If you get a timeshare on 30A, better make sure it comes with a snow shovel.

I probably won't roll back in here until 12z. I might catch the 0z GFS run....if I am feeling remarkably good. Haha.

I still think it is a very long shot. However, where we are seeing some of these systems rain instead of snow...tells me that modeling is over doing the cold and there is room for this to come north. However, these Gulf snows verify more often than I care to enjoy.

Yes, the mean is well west and into the E TN valley. No idea if it can get this far, but you can see the jog. You asked if this could jog northwest. I do believe the trough could verify north of where it is show currently. If so, this shifts the track.

18z GEFS left. 12z right.