Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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The AIFS has never really been snow for the eastern valley, but its ensemble has. I haven't looked at the 18z ensemble yet. The actual operational Euro look about right IMHO.
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The BIG difference is how the AI models are handling hp. They are quicker to move it east which allows precip to nose northward. The deterministic runs hold much more hp behind the system. I will have to look at trends to see if one set is moving to another.
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The 18z Euro(non AI) makes a lot of sense.
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And that AIFS ensemble was honking for a winter storm at 12z. Let's see what 18z does. Looks to me like AIFS Euro, then EPS, then Euro??? The AIFS (at that time) deterministic looks a bit down there, but I can't really tell. I agree w/ the top 3 if so. Though the AIFS EPS is a bit to snowy as a bias.
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I am gonna have to see some support from the AI ensembles before I buy the AI deterministic runs. The 18z AIGEFS is further south than its 12z AIGEFS run and south of the 18z deterministic run. The AIFS EPS was much colder than its 12z deterministic run. If the 18z AIFS EPS comes in south w more hp...I think the deterministic still has some room to move.
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Both AI models have HP much further east than ensembles(including their own) and deterministic runs have had. Looks like an error to me, but I could be wrong. Not sure I want to argue w/ a robot. Usually turns out poorly in chess.
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The 18z GEFS is a tick south, and very wintry.
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The AIGFS manages to kick out the feature which tells me the GFS is out to lunch. How the 18z GFS manages to get to the same solution (at the surface) as the 12z Euro is pretty wild. Like two ships passing in the night...they get to the same point but their origins and destinations are not the same! I think this hp situation may take another 36 hours to get handled. Trends for me(regarding the aifs) are what I will be watching.
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I think we have two things which have to be sorted out. The 18z GFS is highly likely in error w/ the Baja low. The key is where the hp sets up. Both the 18z GFS and 12z Euro both manage to get the high further south, albeit w/ different setups. The GEM para has the high further north as does the 12z AIFS.
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The AIGFS(been bad all winter) trended south and much more eastward w/ its hp. Still warm over the Tenn Valley....but almost identical to 12z at the surface.
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100% the GFS is doing some weird stuff w/ the Baja deal. It has missed almost every time this winter. Outlier for that reason alone.
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I "think" we are gonna want the precip(warm nose risk noted) to get out slightly in front of that high. The 18z ICON looked ready to unload. It was a bit flatter. I think the GFS is in the ballpark now, but just too strong w/ the high. But...it is within range of being almost trusted. Remember though, with the current system today it was amped too much...so who knows. It just amps everything like the old DGEX.
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Nice run for the forum all things considered w/ room to come north a bit....good run for NC as well. What time is the AIFS rolling?
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I will take that 18z GFS look over the "cold gets hung up on the Plateau" look. But I highly doubt it is right. I like the idea of a big hp, but that model has been over-amping things all winter. It does hold the big high back by about 200-300 miles and let's some moisture get north. That seems plausible.
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I think that big hp blocks it???
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I agree w/ @TellicoWx...the hp is gonna tell this story. On the Euro AIFS at 12z, that hp was in the 1030s. The Euro was in the 1040s. I bet the HP was a bit stronger on the EURO AIFS EPS. The 18z GFS has a monster high, and I bet that feature is over cooked.
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That is about where we want it and w/ the trend that we want...slight nudge north. I don't think we want a 1050+ hp over the top. 1040s will do. Either way, that is a winter storm over the mid and upper south.
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Big 1051 high sitting in Minnessota as this rolls in at 135. I a warm nose can defeat that, then I give up. Haha. Not saying that 1051 is real BTW.
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Should be big.
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At 117, is that a 1050 hp in southern Canada?!
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I gotta think the 18z GFS is gonna be more north on this run just based on where it is w/ Weds's look.
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Just for January...How has Euro verification faired in comparison to the Euro AIFS? I feel like the Euro did well w/ the system along the coast today. It locked on a more coastal solution and didn't budge despite the more amped GFS. Also, where can I find verification scores? I can never find it...even with Google! The Euro is almost always tougher mid-winter.
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Yeah, he is about to post a dub for his seasonal forecast...went against most seasonals w/ a strong analog package and called the late January/early Feb storm track back in Oct/Nov. Just so I don't have to post twice(not that it stops me! LOL), here is where the 12z AIFS ends up. Weak comma head w/ a deepening coastal. I bet the 96 system looked a lot like this. I noticed that the flow backed a bit at the end of that first storm.
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Think it was its usual bias of holding back energy?
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And this would be the concern. Winter storm w/ ice followed by this...
