Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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The 18z NAM is hammering TRI. Tucker, I see CAD on WxBell.
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I still have my 14-15 snow shovel.
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A big error with models is they don't "see" the cold right at the surface. I have been forecast for snow in NE TN...only to have it verify in north Alabama before. Why? Lots of reasons. One....sometimes the cold is undermodeld. These could just be ebbs and flows on modeling, but trends have to be watched. The GEM-para shift is noticeable.
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@Matthew70, I am reminded that you consistently said not to cancel winter. Just a little thank you card from me.
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Real feel Euro for next Thursday. @Matthew70, this is what we don't want, right? -40 real feels in the Apps. -10s to -20s in the valleys.
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I haven't checked Steve's friend's (hurricant hunter source) update for today...but more should be gathered today. I definitely thought of that. My guess is that Arctic air mass is finally out of the information void above the Arctic Circle.
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Ah. Sure did. What is interesting about that is that means the model will likely have to correct downstream as it approaches. It is a decent sign modeling is behind the curve after about 36 hours or so.
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The 12z GEM-para moved southward.
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Which model did it cave to? Looks like Hoth to me!
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I have to think modeling is FINALLY feeling the effects of those big highs. Cold air is just pouring down the west flank of the Apps. I looked at the wind on this morning's runs(after reading MRX's write up about mountain waves being possible), and you can see the cold just running parallel to the Apps and making a beeline southward.
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Haha. I always tell my friends...you will know I am not AI, because I have too many typos in what I write. Between self correct and typing fast, I make all kinds of errors. I generally go back and proof one more time after I post - I just shake my head. If I ever start posting stuff that doesn't have typos...you know the singularity got me! Even better, I am very prone to getting model names and model run times (0z,6z,12z,etc) mixed up. For once, my typos are a good thing!
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LOL. Where did you find that?
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We have Real Feels at -40F next Thursday on the Euro. Probably could put that in the pattern thread, but that might affect people who are affected by the storm.
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Between the 12z Euro, NAM, GEFS...pretty agreement for problems around TRI. The 12z Euro looks ROUGH!
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Oh boy.
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Both the 12zGFS(and runs prior) and 0z Euro are flirting with breaking all-time record lows. I gotta think w/ that type of cold on modeling....we see 2-3-4 more chances before winter is up. I think this is the start of the pattern and not end of it.
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I will never know John is on the board w/ out the old background! The AIFS flirted w/ keeping border counties below freezing. The nose had gotten your temps to 37. 12z now has the heigh of the storm at 35. I could see that.
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The 12z AIFS blunts the warm nose and cuts 2-3 degree off the north end of the in regards to temps. I didn't look at the rest of the eastern valley. Makes me wonder if the warm nose gets the northern valley above freezing w/ these trends.
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It gets better once inside of 4 days....but has been jumping around all winter as we just witnessed yesterday. I has some uncanny accuracy at times, but has just been really bad since about Thanksgiving in my book. I can sometimes do a bit better in the mountains with snow amounts. Like most weather models, it is best used within a blend of ideas or solutions.
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You hate to see it, Carver. We still hold some cards. But it's getting dangerously close to the event. I will say we've been very lucky the past three to four decades regarding heavy ice accumulations. I think it was even '77 or '78 the last time KTRI saw icing on a scale that could play out in this event. Hopefully, it does not. Flirting with trouble for sure if models continue to cool off.
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For sure. You can see where the cold is banking up against the Plateau on the east side of the Valley. @Daniel Boone, that is your country. With all three short range models cooling off...could be a problem. The HH hunter Twitter poster noted it might take several runs for data to impact things. I also think Fountain made a good point...CAD highs on modeling tend to strengthen as they get closer to events and models can better depict the surface. I do think that "might" be happening on our side of the Apps as well. I need to dig a bit more...but the warm nose looked less intense across modeling or maybe just less durations. I also wonder if the vortices and air masses are getting better sampled as they get closer.
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On WxBell, it has trended colder. Slide the freezing line south one county and ditto run to 6z.
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The 12z ICON has the CAD event wrapping back into SE TN. Heavy rain(not sure if storms) falling into below freezing temps w/ heavy ZR. All three short range models have trend some southward and cooler.
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The 12z NAM was rough for TRI.
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Bingo.
