Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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The bottom purple arrow is almost exactly where Camp Creek is....almost perfectly. And that may have been your intention.
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So mountain waves are not really seeking corridors like gaps. @Math/Met - bat signal for an explanation. My understanding has always been that these are places where the winds out of the SE hit the mountains almost at a 90 degree angle, are forced to compress on the ridges which speeds them up at the top - like a wave coming into the beach. There probably is a component where they are hitting the lower points on high ridges. Basically works like a compressor. The ridge has to be the right slope for this to work on both sides of the mountain in order to allow the winds to come across smoothly and race down the other side. If the beach is too steep...not great waves. Needs to move from deep to shallow water at a certain rate(sharp but smooth) in order to create big waves. The only thing with this...the wave rushes down the other side of a mountain. Just a few places in the world which can do what Camp Creek does.
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I think technically the warm areas are actually the mountain wave downslope. The colder places in between are areas not hit by the downslope. But I can't say that for sure.
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I would say 95% chance it is the mountain wave event. You can see the winds and direction on the second image.
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For sure...but likely wind. I looked this AM when I saw those warmer temps streaking across Tenn. The general correlate to winds I think.
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Then, that is very likely that is the mountain wave event. I looked pretty closely earlier today. Wicked downslope. Saw some gusts as high at 65mph on earlier models. That last "streak" usually works its way right up I26. I usually get a text from someone in Gray who says their house is 45 while I am in the upper 20s and low 30s. Bout thirty minutes later...it starts raining at my house. Hahah. Let's hope there isn't ice on those trees as @Holston_River_Ramblernoted earlier today....high winds and ice are a bad combo.
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Mountain wave coming from the southeast. The second to last green streak is likely Camp Creek. The other one is Unicoi.
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I think when the first piece of energy isn't stronger...that second waves digs a bit more into Texas, and pops those heights in front just a bit. The fact that modeling is correcting colder earlier in these runs might also mean that modeling was too warm w/ earlier runs, and is possibly correcting. I noticed at lunch that the eastern Plains really cooled off. Though, I do think the second wave is contributing. The ice was substantially worse with that run for MBY. TRI is catching a bullseye today for ice...not a fan of that.
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The 18z NAM rolls w/ two waves of precip. The first wave absolutely hammers the eastern valley. Precip w/ that wave is south of the first wave on the 12z. It makes me think the model is adjusting the earlier hours. I bet that might happen w/ that second wave as well. Makes sense as the big high is impacting the early part of the run.
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The 18z NAM had less of a warm nose in middle Tennessee. It is also for sure south w/ its precip shield(first wave...edit).
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Evaporational cooling.
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The 18z NAM is hammering TRI. Tucker, I see CAD on WxBell.
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I still have my 14-15 snow shovel.
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A big error with models is they don't "see" the cold right at the surface. I have been forecast for snow in NE TN...only to have it verify in north Alabama before. Why? Lots of reasons. One....sometimes the cold is undermodeld. These could just be ebbs and flows on modeling, but trends have to be watched. The GEM-para shift is noticeable.
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@Matthew70, I am reminded that you consistently said not to cancel winter. Just a little thank you card from me.
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Real feel Euro for next Thursday. @Matthew70, this is what we don't want, right? -40 real feels in the Apps. -10s to -20s in the valleys.
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I haven't checked Steve's friend's (hurricant hunter source) update for today...but more should be gathered today. I definitely thought of that. My guess is that Arctic air mass is finally out of the information void above the Arctic Circle.
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Ah. Sure did. What is interesting about that is that means the model will likely have to correct downstream as it approaches. It is a decent sign modeling is behind the curve after about 36 hours or so.
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The 12z GEM-para moved southward.
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Which model did it cave to? Looks like Hoth to me!
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I have to think modeling is FINALLY feeling the effects of those big highs. Cold air is just pouring down the west flank of the Apps. I looked at the wind on this morning's runs(after reading MRX's write up about mountain waves being possible), and you can see the cold just running parallel to the Apps and making a beeline southward.
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Haha. I always tell my friends...you will know I am not AI, because I have too many typos in what I write. Between self correct and typing fast, I make all kinds of errors. I generally go back and proof one more time after I post - I just shake my head. If I ever start posting stuff that doesn't have typos...you know the singularity got me! Even better, I am very prone to getting model names and model run times (0z,6z,12z,etc) mixed up. For once, my typos are a good thing!
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LOL. Where did you find that?
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We have Real Feels at -40F next Thursday on the Euro. Probably could put that in the pattern thread, but that might affect people who are affected by the storm.
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Between the 12z Euro, NAM, GEFS...pretty agreement for problems around TRI. The 12z Euro looks ROUGH!
