Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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In sports, they say if you "turn the corner" enough...you might end up right where you started.
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I didn't realize you were that far north in Illinois. Sorry I didn't realize... I just looked it up, and probably should have known that since you post here some. I know now! Yeah, that is cold! For some reason I thought you were in central Illinois. It makes sense now why you were mentioning bare ground during December.
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My point and click for Tuesday morning is 0 with gusts to 20mph.
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TRI is at +2.2 for the month. Unless something changes, we should easily finish BN or January. After Sunday, my point and click temps don't go above freezing until Friday when he forecast ends.
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Awesome! We now have TWO hot threads. Best subforum on AmWx, but I am biased. I do like our SE folks though! @beavis1729, what is your forecast in Illinois?
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Yeah, man. Something has to give there. I do like snow for Thursday though. Maybe we can get some thunder on Sunday! Funny...not funny.
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Yes. I miss the days of the days of the dependable northwest jog. Now, we gotta listen to BamWx calling in our system from Columbus. Good call by him, but doesn't mean I have to like it. Haha.
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Probably need it down there for now. Remember the days when we used to trend a storm from South Carolina into E TN. The SE forum guys didn't like us so much when that happened.
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Did it squash that at 183?
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With the 18z gfs bringing in bitterly cold air at 138...it has light, almost certainly high ratio snow with it. I have to think we score with that front.
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@Matthew70refused to concede that winter was over during the December chinook. Looks like he paid his bill. This is a nice receipt!!! 45/50 states have winter weather products issued. 24 states have winter storm warnings issued for the same storm while 8 states have ice storm warnings for that same system.
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It is a great model. The 3k NAM is giving it a run for resolution IMBY. I like the HRRR and RAP, but they move around a lot during the storm as I think that have radar data included. As Holston noted...if it is adjusting the start point in Arkansas southward....I am somewhat interested in that.
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Again, we really need to watch trends to our West. We have lost storms at this range in the past...and usually we see it immediately when everything verifies northward. If modeling is shifting south (to our west), we need to watch that closely. The RGEM trend southward(past several runs) is noteworthy.
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The RGEM is usually money. The GEM is biased cold. The RGEM is usually a strong model for this area, and my favorite. 3k NAM is a close second.
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As @Holston_River_Ramblernoted, you have to watch the first part of the storm. If everything is colder and south, that tells us something. We need to start watching numbers for verification purposes. The 18z RFSS has ice to the Ohio River. The 18z 3k NAM(which has been good for E TN forecast purposes) has the ice several counties south of the Ohio River. BIG differences in short range models. The interesting thing is how much precip gets out in front of this? Do we get a lot of virga or does this go from the jump? Houston, what were your ideas on the southward verification?
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The HRRR looks like it is over-doing the downslope, but I never, ever discount that model. If one model can see downslope, it is that one. The 3k NAM basically got rid of the downslope - not sure if it is a hiccup or if the mountain wave was less. The HRRR is basically showing that NE TN is going to takes its time getting precip in here. As you know, not uncommon. The 12z Euro, 18z NAM(southward jog), 12z GFS, 12z RGEM....take some time to get precip, but then they just overwhelm the dry air, and send it. Ice is so difficult to forecast in the Tennessee Valley. I have seen cold get trapped and never leave until the event is over. I have seen it scoured immediately. My experience says this cold air erodes pretty quickly. But........this hp setup is different than most other events. It is strong. If I was just looking at a map and scientifically had to make a call...I would say that big high is gonna pour cold air down the west slopes of the Apps and hold onto frozen precip just a bit longer.
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Send it, man. Bring on the 1050hp...or 1040...or 1030...or 1028....or just send a slp right up the Valley instead.
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FWIW...I think the 3K NAM has this nailed.
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The 12z gfs is trying to make me feel like I live in the Sierra Nevada. 49" for TRI on that run? AIFS less but still noteworthy.
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It has been my experience with these things that it may well depend on which roads get a lot of sun and which don't regarding roads. I know they started pre-treating yesterday here. Our road crew guys have somebody who is good with weather. They didn't wait for the warning packages.
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Are precip totals going up on the short range models at 12z - both NAMs and RGEM?
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TRI gets hammered by the 12k NAM. There are considerable differences between the 12k and 3k regarding Chattanooga and TRI. I simply refer to you all who live in those places to know your microclimates. @nrgjeff- maybe he will stop in this afternoon. No doubt he is busy!
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The 12z NAM put 1.88" of ice over Chattanooga. No idea if that is right, but man.
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I pretty much knew when the 12z 3k NAM just rolled....it didn't leave them with a lot of wiggle room.
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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 TNZ041-043-045-047-072-074-087-240600- /O.NEW.KMRX.HW.W.0001.260125T0000Z-260126T0000Z/ Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-Southeast Carter- Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Monroe- Including the cities of Limestone Cove, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Hampton, Hartford, Elkmont, Cades Cove, Citico, Coker Creek, Gatlinburg, and Unicoi 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...Blount Smoky Mountains, Cocke Smoky Mountains, Sevier Smoky Mountains, Southeast Carter, Southeast Greene, Southeast Monroe, and Unicoi Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Locally higher wind gusts up to 80 mph are expected across the highest elevations of the foothills such as Cove Mountain.
