Carvers Gap
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
It is still shoulder season...but we may have a basketball team in Knoxville. -
The 12z GFS and CMC show a transition to at the very least cold fronts pressing eastward...and that means some rain. MRX mentioned that modeling has been overestimating qpf amounts in drought stricken areas. So, keep that in mind as well. 09-10 was a banner winter. Barely got home one evening in December as we got hammered during rush hour. Took some folks 12 hours to make a 30min commute. It definitely depends on where you are located....
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The Euro Weeklies(at least today's and yesterday's) are showing a decently clear Nino pattern with BN 500 heights over the SE by the third and fourth week of December. That would be an early start for a Nino winter...fingers crossed. Shades of 09-10 if so.
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Here is Huffman's forecast: https://x.com/RaleighWx/status/1721953621439381790?s=20
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I'll start. I grew up watching Knoxville weather TV. I was most interested in what was happening to my west. I was always jealous of people living on the Plateau, and also closely watched the weather in Paducah, KY, and Memphis. I used to really enjoy listening to the wx radio at my grandparent's house. Eventually, someone bought me my own weather radio. I have had two weather radios in my lifetime and knew exactly when the forecast updated each day. I tracked a bunch of winter storms on those babies! Next came the weather channel, and I watched it often. Eventually, the internet became accessible to all, and I decided I wanted more details. So, I started following the NOGAPS model. At the time, it was the only model I could find on the internet. I came to AmWx(whatever it was called prior to this iteration...eastern?), and then my resources and understanding greatly expanded. Before the TN Valley Forum, we were part of a robust SE forum which was pretty much, "Is it going to snow in North Carolina?" I learned a lot there from some great amateur hobby folks there and also from red taggers (mets). I think one of the great things about this wx forum is that meteorologist chime-in and participate - maybe that is the best thing about this site. I also grew up in Knoxville until I was ten years old. It was the 1970s, and it was the glory days of my lifetime. I spent two years in Florida during the early 80s - pretty much hell for anyone who loves winter and who is also a TN fan. I do like Florida now, so no offense to the Sunshine State. My two favorite winters are 84-85 and 14-15. During the 84-85 winter, my dad was traveling from St Louis and would keep calling home(on payphones) to tell us that he was just ahead of a bad storm. We were relieved when he got home, and sure enough, bitterly cold air and snow followed as he rode into town. I do remember the blizzard of '93 as I was on the UT campus at that time. That was probably the first time I had seen a wx model referenced on TV. I also watched the WxChannel like crazy during those days. When the snow started falling, it was very fine in texture. I thought maybe the storm had missed us. Nope, bullseye for Knoxville. I took some cafeteria trays down hills that I probably shouldn't have! Anyway, thought this might be an interesting thread idea.
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Interesting, so maybe the AMO is a consequence of solar forcing or volcanic events or even something else. By measuring the AMO, we are simply seeing a consequence of a greater driver or even measuring a different oscillation of sorts. I often wonder if the QBO is similar? I have always been interested in that region (NAO being the main factor). I took one meteorology class in college so I know just enough atmospheric physics to to be dangerous! My professor was a met for ORNL. Anyway, after reading your paper, here are a couple I am looking at... Various NAO correlations More of the same And as you know as well, the NAO is incredibly difficult to predict. So things like 10-50mb strat warming over the pole is interesting as would the longer term AMO signature. I feel (though am not certain) that the NAO clusters(of negative values) is more closely relate to a -AMO(for lack of a better term...colder SSTs in the North Atlantic).
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To follow up, I would imagine there is some sort of PDO equivalency present just south of Greenland (in the northern Atlantic).
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Interesting. The actual fluctuation of ocean SST temps in the northern Atlantic is real. The animation depicts that. Those colder SST temps there do coincide remarkably with colder temps here in E TN. Just looking at the data sets, there is some sort of predictable oscillation present. What i would like to find is a daily AMO number for tracking it.
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Even a modest dip in the AMO can result in colder winters. Does anyone have an AMO data set which goes by month and is CURRENT to October 2023. I can only find a data set current to Jan 2023. Please share here if you have a link. Also, what is the current PDO daily number if you have it?
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While digging around for some more information on the AMO, I found this site by NASA. Take a minute and watch the animation of Atlantic ocean temps during the past 125 years. NO, we are not getting into a climate debate here. As far as we know the AMO has been occurring for 1000s of years. But watch the ocean cycles, and you can easily see how this would affect HL blocking. The negative phase is what we need. I am super guilty of the following, but when we use analogs from the opposite AMO cycle...they probably aren't super accurate. The current cycle is a positive AMO. That cuts our analog possibilities in half AND likely we are going to have use analogs from teh 1930s-1950s. Throw in the PDO phase, and that further narrows down our analogs to a set which might not have enough dates to build a set. -AMO winters were definitely the coldest in my lifetime, and the next flips isn't likely until roughly 2030. Interestingly, the September/October Nino years with REALLY dry falls were during +AMO years...the mid60s AMOs were right around the flip to negative. I do think that ties into what we are looking at somewhat. https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4895/
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LR modeling CFSv2/Euro Weeklies (ensemble/control) are showing a sharp flip to winter during the last part of the second week of December. So, roughly in the four week range. The EPS shows maybe the opening salvo of changes around the last week of November. The overall change is a pretty massive reset of the 500mb pattern over most of the northern hemisphere. IDK if it is an early switch to a Nino pattern or if is a head fake. The interesting thing will be to see if it actually arrives earlier or stalls. For now, that might put us in the game for a cold Christmas. So really, this is the first time we have been able to "see winter time air masses" within a range that has some rigor.
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I hate that I missed them. Are they going to be back tonight?
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Comparing 500mb patterns from the previous Euro seasonals to this current set...there is considerable improvement in what came out today.
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Whether the QBO has a true correlation to colder weather IMBY, or it is simply connected to another "more real" driver...it is uncanny how many great winters have -QBOs. Sometimes things look like they have a connection when they don't, but again, just crazy how it is present during really cold and/or winters. Jeff would probably add that the descending phase of the QBO is best.
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Shoulder season modeling is whiplash city for me. LOL. The last week of November I think we have to watch. I agree w/ Cosgrove there, but I want to see the 12z ensemble suite before getting out over my skis. I like the GFS/GEFS during shoulder season, but it was on its own overnight. I can see us getting 1-2 weeks of cold later this month, and then it flipping warm.
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Will has the maps in the MA forum...
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I should note that the Euro seasonal looks like it is wrong at the surface (temps) for November, but its 500 maps look to be in line with other modeling. December is forecast to be very warm. Jan/Feb have a strong EPO/PNA ridge out West. No idea if it is right, but that is a textbook Nino progression. November is shown to be dry, but some relief for eastern areas of the forum during winter.
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Euro seasonals have been released. Jan and Feb look really good. Only thing that concerns me is that is is possibly going to initialize incorrectly with November.
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These posts are awesome. Thanks for the write-up.
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Rain along the equatorial dateline is a great MJO signal for this area. That has been missing for the last three winters. It really impacts E TN in a negative way re: snow.
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Bone dry here, but not near as bad as other areas. I was flipping through modeling this morning. There is a lot of spread in regards to how much rain is due to fall. Some have nothing, and others have 7-8" worth of rainfall. I would be fine with a blend!!!!
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Some decent looking winter patterns showing up on both the 0z EPS and 0z GEPS in the d12-16 range - decent EPO ridge forming. The 6z GEFS is torch city w/ a GOA low trying to form and hold. GOA lows are slow to deteriorate and generally prevent good winter patterns for 4-8 weeks. My money is on the GEPS/EPS combo....but those two can be pretty abysmal during shoulder season. Cosgrove last night mentioned that he thought ridging in the West might fire later this month, and has been saying that prior to ensembles showing it. His analogs have been showing it. He does mention that the best of winter would likely have to wait until the second half of winter though. One last caveat....when I post my winter forecast ideas in the winter spec thread, I am 100% aware they may be partially or all wrong. The reason I say that? When winter starts, I generally don't care if winter moves towards my ideas or not. Sure, it would be a decent feather in my amateur weather cap, but seasonal forecasts require some good fortune...just think Plinko on the Price is Right. A seasonal forecast can go poorly right out of the gate if the chip hits a peg and goes the other way. For now, mine looks right on track...but once we start hashing out storms and 2-4 week weather patterns....I really don't care those ideas fit my seasonal forecast or try to bend my ideas around the seasonal ideas - that is a great way to be wrong most of the time. So if I call for a warm December, I truly hope December goes cold! I have my doubts there, but it is GREAT to see two models hinting at an EPO ridge later this month!
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@nrgjeff that is the only post you're are allowed to make for November. LOL
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This is what happens when Kansas beats Oklahoma. Things just go to crap - the universe is out of balance.
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I don't think that has happened here to clarify. But I know we sync with Google....so, I am usually super careful if things get too dry. That's just me, and maybe that caution is warranted on my part. Honestly, it is such a big story right now...talking about it is likely unavoidable so I don't want folks to think it would be frowned upon if discussed.
