Carvers Gap

As for the Feb 5 system, energy transfer is an issue on the Euro.  The GFS is likely progressive.  Decent little window if it holds.   If that deepens on the coast that could bring the cold in quicker.  Maybe we can steal a storm before the bear cold arrives.

Might be about to hit “go time” for tracking. The MJO is almost out of 6, but did slow down a bit since yesterday.  There is still a forecasted loop back into warm phases, but that is beginning to feel like a “Lucy pulls the football” look - meaning the MJO is going to keep progressing (albeit maybe slower) and not stall in warm phases.  The MJO plots at CPC this morning are pretty much a “choose your own adventure” bank of options.  The good thing is that most of them keep the MJO to the left of the plot which is cooler or cold.    I think decent cold is still in the Feb 14 range - give or take 48 hours.  There is still an outside chance this gets here a bit earlier (not referencing the cold shot just before that).

46 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

You mind if I share this in my forum?

Sure!

Euro Weeklies are bumping up snow for Feb and early March.  I don't worry about actual totals, but just look for storm tracks.  

3 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Until the eps or gefs starts indicating a pattern to support cold again, I'm in denial of the weeklies. That's just me though lol. I'm still hoping winter returns before we run otta time

That is exactly what my post was about....they are all in sync including the EPS/GEFS/GEPS.  They are all singing the same song.  They are within just a few hours of each other re: progression.

The Euro Weeklies and today’s 12z ensemble continue to be in sync in terms of progressions.  Maybe there is a can kick of 24 hours to Feb 15th.   That is remarkable consistency thus far from LR modeling.  Looks like maybe a mini cold shot around the 5th, a return to much above normal warmth for a week, and then NA cools down for 3+ weeks.   Looks like a great pattern if it can verify - an old fashioned February winter pattern vs being an extension of spring.

10 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Noticed mine also just made it to surface.  My grass is super green also.  Quiet surprised.

Between the fall drought and the recent cold...grass here looks pretty much toasted in most places.   Your grass seems to green up earlier than TRI.  You have a green thumb!

Also, for me, one of the most interesting times in using computer models to predict the weather as a hobby....is when ensembles can’t keep up with trends.  I am not sure we are seeing that just yet, but maybe.  The GFS will often pivot before other operational modeling, and we might be seeing that.  If has been flirting with a return to cold earlier than its ensemble as has the Euro control.   OTH operationals are likely just too fast with the cold.  For now, ensembles are probably right...but one can see the change to a colder pattern between d10-16.

FTR, I am not quite ready to say that the return to cold is speeding up.  All ensembles are still warm through the 10th.   That said, if the MJO input into modeling is as bad as it has been modeled on CPC...we could see a fairly significant change in modeling within the next 24-48 hours.  Yes, I am not predicting weather but model trends!    

The CPC MJO is now 75% across phase 6 of the MJO...in just two days.  It matches perfectly the extreme warmth we have had at TRI...nearly to the hour.   It went up slightly in amplitude.  However, now we wait to see if it stalls.  If it leaves 6 tomorrow, we know that modeling was badly wrong.  The fact the MJO has been moving this fast is already a model error on those plots.    So, I cautiously think it will leave 6 quickly.   Tomorrow will tell the tale.  

7 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Here ya go guy's.

https://x.com/wxrisksnowstorm/status/1750697773140255145?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g

Interesting find.  I always like DT.  I haven't read his stuff in a couple of winters.

Thunder in the mountains....eerily accurate little rule.  The 0z GEFS is definitely quicker.  It is still very warm, but at 500 it is in the boat.  The 0z EPS and GEPS are about on schedule (Feb12-14 cold switch).  The 6z GFS is one backdoor cold front after another - so, it shows the potential.  It really seems(and this is where I would differ w/ DT) that the pattern is centered around a NE blizzard/snowstorm.  If it materializes, then it could force a trough into the EC w/ the power of its circulation.  If the MJO is still moving strongly for the next couple of days...we will know the warm pattern will likely be shorter.  I think models are very much struggling w/ the Pacific set-up though...I can get on board with that.  I am definitely good w/ the warmth ending sooner than latter.  TRI was almost 22.8 degrees above normal yesterday.  It felt like early summer.  The low yesterday was 53.  In two days, our BN departures were cut in half which is tough to day given that there are only five days left in Jan(and lots of data points balance out warm).

My one concern is that some modeling is showing a quicker return to cold...but on those models, the warmth comes back mid-month and the cold isn't quite strong enough for snow.  I think that is the MJO looping back into warm phases showing up.  That might be an error.  OTH, this may just be one of those winters where it is cold and stormy and modeling never catches up.  It is starting to seem that way.  Big model test coming up.  If all modeling misses an early February cold snap, maybe it is time to start asking why(for the second time this winter) modeling missed something that significant on the cold side of things.

JB mentioned tonight that with AI, wx forecasting(by humans) is probably near the end of its time.  That is true for a lot of jobs.  Right now as hobby(wx), we are essentially working to understand what will be infused into tomorrow's computer program.  Nobody cares about IOS on iPhones, they just care that it works dependably.  Is the weather headed in the same direction.  As long as the app works, does it matter if a single person on this planet understands the atmospheric physics behind the computer program?  I hope there will always be people who seek to understand, to think, to better their minds.  

Anyway, I thought a good deep dive discussion might be how this hobby and potentially wx forecasting as a whole will survive the influx of almost certain AI programming.  I am reminded in Dances with Wolves when Costner's character was asked how many European settlers were coming West.  He hedged the first few times he was asked.  Then, he was honest....the influx of people was going to be enormous and unstoppable.  AI reminds me of being in a place without burdens and constructs...the potential is there for AI to swallow up everything that we know and hold dear just as the Plains cultures were swallowed up.  Certainly, AI can make our lives better.  For Native Americans, they would be given modern tools...but the Plains in which many lived would be fenced, property rights given, and their way of life gone.  

Well, anyway, after this Ecclesiastical post(everything is meaningless), have at it....

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

That’s interesting… snow has nitrogen in it so maybe that stimulated them a little. Even for daffodils, this is a little early I believe.


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They aren't blooming, but just breaking the surface.  Some years, they are up by early January.  They are on a south facing slope.  

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Getting a lot of thunder and lightning up here on the plateau right now. 
 

This is going to really stress the limits of the thunder in the mountains rule.  If it snows in ten days, I will never question the rule.  I mean it works about 90% of the time.  We can just throw out the Weeklies if it works this time.  We will use thunder only for next winter if so.

42 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

 

Putting pre out a little early this year. This 3 week(ish) warm spell might bring poa annual and wild onions/garlic in a little earlier than normal.

My daffodils made it to the surface which surprises me!  Our snow just cleared two days ago.  I think someone in that group of perennials was like, "Let's make a break for it."  LOL.

1 hour ago, Greyhound said:

Metal snowman is my wife’s. I hung it up this year and we got good results!!! Thing is…..we are a week or two away from starting a MAJOR renovation on our house and will be moving out for two months. No idea what she wants to do with that thing in the meantime……..but I will listen to the forum for advice!!!!


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LOL.  Snowman has to stay up until second week of March, man.  Got to find a way.  Be careful, someone from the Mid-Atlantic forum might come for it though.  I have my blue snow shovel out front from the 14-15' winter.  Just doing my part. 

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

And then the 12z Euro looked like it was going the way of the 6z GFS:

 

 

Not gonna lie though, I'm getting a little nervous. I haven't see the elk since the snow started. I also have only been able to access the area it has been living for two days, so hopefully just a glitch in the matrix. 

We may have used up our elk mojo.  It all comes down to whether that wooly worm was right, and whether the metal snowman(whose was that?) has got anything left in the tank.  Now, in YNP elk will go to lower elevations if it gets cold.  The elk may be headed to Florida for vacation.

1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

As most know, we don't want the mjo to stay in phase 6 bc that is the warmest of all phases. I'm surprised that Eric webb hasn't considered that unless he feels that won't be a factor moving forward. It just means that winter will be delayed even more if it comes back, which I hope it does for one more opportunity at a winter storm. It will suck to waste a whole month

Maybe later this evening or tomorrow morning(once the new MJO plots are out), I will look(and anyone else as wel) a bit deeper into the possibility that the cold returns more quickly.  I think even modeling has one foot in that camp and one foot out.  Cosgrove has ridden an analog forecast all winter, and it has served him well.  I think I remember him saying those analogs say this thaw should be brief.  I have Feb cold for my seasonal forecast, so I am definitely hoping for a cold return sooner than later.   Thanks for the info!

Feb 10-March11.  No, I don't think it will be that dry, but it isn't out of the realm of reason given the strong EPO out West.  A strong EPO will often suppress the MJO, and is a negative consequence sometimes of a good Pac set-up.  That said, we had nearly the identical precip depiction for January on the Weeklies...I just didn't post the BN precip map, because I thought it was wrong (given seasonal trends for the STJ to win out).  I suspect that to be the case this time as well.  However, this set-up is slightly different than the mid Jan cold snap.  The dominant feature will likely be the EPO/PNA w/ the NAO likely more of a secondary feature.  Also, sometimes LR ext modeling will have less precip where there will be more snow.  That turned out to be the case recently.  Storm track is visible.  North Carolina should gets some shots this time around or at least have something to track.

@Itryatgolf70, this is fits what Webb was discussing.  I do think if the Weeklies had been derived from the 12z run, the control would have been colder and the ensemble warmer.  Sometimes, control and operational runs will catch a trend.  Either way, I think modeling is beginning to pick-up on cold returning which is great.    Cosgrove seems to favor a week 3 return to cold.  Though, he has some busted pipes and wants a brief warm-up - I don't blame him.   Below is the d9-16 temp map which is cold, and that is what I was really wanting to share.  I added the control's full month of Feb just for funl:

Sadily, the end of winter is beginning to show up at the very end of the control.  The ensemble runs winter well into March.  So, the window (about 3 weeks) is on both the control and ensemble.  The control is quicker into the EC but burns out quickly.  The ensemble is about 7-10 days later, and keeps it colder for a similar time...it only ends, because the run ends.

14 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

As most know, we don't want the mjo to stay in phase 6 bc that is the warmest of all phases. I'm surprised that Eric webb hasn't considered that unless he feels that won't be a factor moving forward. It just means that winter will be delayed even more if it comes back, which I hope it does for one more opportunity at a winter storm. It sucks to waste a whole month

The Euro control (today as well) has been very quick to return cold to the East.  its ensemble is about 5-7 days slower.  I tend to roll with ensembles at this stage.  I hope he is correct.  Webb has struggled w/ the EC pattern for most of winter.  This would be a great time for him to get it right.  Euro control(which is basically just another member of the broader ensemble group of members) is huckleberry.  I would also add that there are some MJO runs on the CPC which would support his thinking.

41 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

And then the 12z Euro looked like it was going the way of the 6z GFS:

 

 

Not gonna lie though, I'm getting a little nervous. I haven't see the elk since the snow started. I also have only been able to access the area it has been living for two days, so hopefully just a glitch in the matrix. 

The NE is has been trying to back into something good off-and-on for several runs on different models.  That was a wild run.  Fujiwhara effect on fully display.  I am not sure I have seen it to that level.  Backdoor cold fronts will work in regards to at least muting a portion of the MJO.  Although, the MJO on a lot of model plots is ducking into 7 and then looping back in 6.  That brief relaxation may be allowing for some mischief in New England.

25 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

I haven't run outside since before Christmas. I've done almost 100 miles on a treadmill since then. I'm finally going to fix that this weekend.

Brave soul!!!!

26 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Eric webb seems adamant after this next week's jet extension, it gets going gangbusters through mid March so I guess we shall see.

Fits the timing from this forum.  Maybe he has been reading it.  LOL.  

But truly, I am just glad not to be running in sub 10F wind chill right now.  A week or two break is fine with me!

The 12z operational GFS went back to the warm side again.  That model is going to be right....it has literally shown every solution that is possible.