Carvers Gap

26 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Eric webb seems adamant after this next week's jet extension, it gets going gangbusters through mid March so I guess we shall see.

Fits the timing from this forum.  Maybe he has been reading it.  LOL.  

But truly, I am just glad not to be running in sub 10F wind chill right now.  A week or two break is fine with me!

The 12z operational GFS went back to the warm side again.  That model is going to be right....it has literally shown every solution that is possible.  

1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

We may squander all of February on too warm air for winter weather. I hope not. Once past mid February, time is big time ticking. March can be cold, mainly higher elevations. Hoping we don't wait until then for that

It could happen.  It is the Upper South.  Even during good winters, we squander a bunch of weeks.

February can also rock.  Snow just doesn't hang around as long.  

The MJO is ruling the roost with an iron fist this winter, cold and warm.  Yesterday we hit 70 degrees during our colder climatology as the MJO rolled into 6.  I read somewhere on another forum that the MJO is fairly random in how it affects EC weather.  I tried not to laugh.  It is nearly perfectly synced this winter, and has been for the past four years with maybe a couple of notable exceptions. 

Until it reaches favorable phases, it is going to be warm and approaching daily records at times.  That said, it ripped into phase 6 overnight.  There is likely going to be a stall somewhere between now and phase 8.  The closer it gets to 8, the better we are if/when it stalls.

You can see the pattern change back to cold on both the GEFS and GEPS at 12z.  Ridge gets kicked NE and a trough slowly builds underneath.  My snowiest month is almost always February.  It just hasn't been lately.

56 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Pre. Emergent. 

 

In all seriousness though, it is just one run at range, so nothing to get too excited about, but this is the promised El Nino storm track:

 

 

Now that, is a classic El Nino (smash W NC) run, and what I envisioned over the summer...the low road express.  It might be a bit too quick w/ the transition to cold, but that is a great example of an active STJ.  If this was La Nina, I would worry about dry cold.  That gives me reasonable confidence (well, as much confidence as one can have w/ predicting weather) the STJ is going to stay active for a while.  El Nino "should" bury the Smokies more times than not.

The good thing is that the actual MJO plot is still moving right along - stall sill predicted within a few days by GFS modeling.  The MJO entered 6 on overnight modeling updates.  It is about a fourth of the way across.  So, it has about 19 days(to hit LR ext modeling timelines) to get from where it is now across the rest of phase 6 and 7...to get to 8.  While I do agree it can snow in 7, we are better off in 8=1-2.  We are about to find out if it is going to stall.  The EMON(Euro ext plot) from yesterday gets across phase 6 in two days.  The GMON(GFS ext plot) takes 16 days.  One might imagine that timing difference has some pretty big consequences in modeling.  A warning about the EMON, that is based upon yesterday's 0z run.  Today's 0z run looks like hot garbage...so, we will see tomorrow morning what the new Weeklies MJO plot looks like.  

Take a look at the last two runs of the GFS(0z and 6z).  One is a warmista pattern, and one is a return to winter(warm wx did we even know ya?) pattern.    And that has been a common theme with that model for a couple of days.  The GFS is just picking flower petals with each run right now.....loves me, loves me not.  LOL.  

9 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Carver say it ain't so. I was told winter is over now. Close the blinds, put out the grass seed, start getting ready for beach weather... 

It could be a slog through some very warm temps to get there.  It reminds me of this past December in a lot of ways.  Lots of warm weather and despair.  The MJO plots today don't give me happy thoughts, but hopefully those ext long range looks know something the CPC MJO programming doesn't.   My main concern is seeing modeling get to 6 and not being able to past it.  They just hit a wall.  I thought maybe at first that was jus some bias.  However, a full stall or a loop in the warm phases is likely at this point.  The good thing is that the timeline by LR ext modeling still looks reasonable(unless the GFS is right) even with the full stall taken into account.  The GFS MJO (from this morning) would end winter, but I don't think it is right..   I "think" we see a nice return to winter, but I can definitely make an argument that its return could be brief and muted. For now, I do like seeing agreement in long range ext modeling about the progression, timeline, and duration of the cold snap.  But at 21 days out.....it could still flip.

The first two are control runs for week 4.  The last two are their accompanying ensembles.  I have some commentary in the Jan thread(thought I was in this thread).

@Holston_River_Rambler, man, sorry!!!  I will get the rest of my posts in your Feb thread.  I thought that is where I was!!!!  

This is this week compared to week 4(well days 20-27...run is still going) of the GEFS extended.  This is a signal for a pretty nice cold shot from this range.  It will change some, but worth noting.  When the entire continent is cold...source regions are good.  Send the STJ into that....and could be interesting.

The GEFS ext is showing the same thing during that time frame.  Now, some can kicking wouldn't be out of the norm, but nice time frame if it works out.  If not, we start tracking spring wx and making vacation plans

1 minute ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I guess depending on what model is correct on the mjo progression. I wouldn't mind a return to winter, especially if it's not cold and dry. Just less cold with more snow/ice opportunities 

I don't think a single model shows the same thing.  LOL.  It looks like a squirrel went berserk in the First Self-Righteous Church In that sleepy little town of Pascagoula.  

As for a dry spell.  I won't ever rule it out.  Cold and dry is not abnormal.  But the STJ is absolutely ripping right now.  Should be good in that regard.

Not trying to wish my life away, but I am pretty much flushing the next three weeks in terms of looking for winter.  So, the end of week 3 is where my eyes are for now....

Week 4 of the Weeklies...control and then ensemble....days 21-28.  You can see the 18z GEFS begin to erode the eastern ridge.  The Euro Weeklies basically slide a decent trough in there by the 14th.  At that point, we should see an absolutely torrid cold front race across the country around that timeframe - give our take 48 hours.  Now, this is still waaaay out there.  It could change, and probably will.  The MJO is trying to dance around in 6-7-8.  I think if we can get the MJO headed towards 8, the floodgates(of cold) are gonna be open.  It looks like the EPO is the driver w/ a -NAO possible accentuating that.  My guess is the stratwarm stuff will do about what it did last week.  It will be a warmer air mass than last week likely as it is a month later than last week.

3 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Hopefully, we get a surprise before then. Even a 1-2 inch deal would dull the 2 week snow drought. Who knows, maybe the SSW induced blocking will speed things up a bit. 

Maybe some wrap-around snow.  As Jeff noted, wall-to-wall cold during January for 14 days is unlikely.  That said, this is definitely a warm-warm-warm upcoming time frame on the horizon.  What comes after Feb 1 could be toasty.  Fortunately, it should be only a couple of weeks after that...and then we are back in the freezer.

1 hour ago, 1234snow said:

It was 69 today in Kingsport. Got back home and it was 61 degrees with some snow cover hanging on. Today finally put a big dent in the snow. I probably had 3 inches of snow depth last night.

It was like summer over here!  The only thing I hate is that it is going to erase our negative temperature departure.  Somebody is gonna talk about how warm January 2024 was!  LOL.  If they only knew.

2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yep. Problem with official Records was KTRI just to your East only recorded around 10 inches as they had mixing issues quite a bit. That was a Kingsport west and North Bonanza. 

And it makes no sense to me in the modern era to only use airport reporting.  (I do know that historic snow records do exist for Kingsport proper).  Really, I have no problem w/ regular people sending in reports which populate a larger database.  Sure, there would be some scientific descepency.  That said, it would be pretty easy to develop programming which would flush outliers.  TRI more often times than not doesn't tell the entire story for snow in the Tri-Cities.  Often, it is the least snowiest place in the region....well, outside of the EB!!!  LOL.  With satellite reporting, it should be better than it is.  

In southwest Virginia, I don't think people realize how snow that area is right on the KY/VA border.  Wise just gets clobbered, and so does your area.  Off topic, one of my favorite things on Friday night is to see the highlights from SW VA.  So many small schools, but such great tradition.  Some great ballers from that area!

5 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

I had a Weather Diary from the late '70's that I recorded daily obs; rain , snow, highs and lows. There was over 2 month stretches of Snow cover on the North facing slopes and in Shady areas in both Winters of 1976-77 and 1977-78 here in Lee County. I'm sure John can attest to that in his local. On a more recent occurrence, Feb. 2015 had Snow cover from Feb. 12 to March 8 th on North facing areas and shades. Solid cover of 4" or more from Feb. 16th to March 1. 

True on 2015 here in Kingsport.  We had snow on the ground for about a month.  I have roughly 30 inches of snow at my house.  It is the most I have seen during a season.

Euro Weeklies look right on track for cold to return around the 14th, give or take 48 hours at this range.  The control is bitterly cold around the 20th, and the CFSv2 has a similar signal.  Most global ensembles are showing the initial transition around d15-16.  Remember, transition does not mean the day we get cold.  Should be 4-7 days after that initial transition.   Looks like a similar window (Against mid Feb norms and not mid Jan) to the one we just departed.  A very 95-96 or 14-15 cycle of cold.  MJO is ruling the roost and it is super squirrelly right now.  We should see opportunities with this, and it looks centered slightly more eastward.  JB mentioned that adjustment and that looks to be the case.

3 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Yeah that's a dubious stat. 

Anytime from the late 60s to early 80s we had the -PDO and -AMO which is ideal for low latitude winter storms. Basically dig the jet stream south coast to coast. I agree with @John1122 something is awry.

I'm on board with the consensus climate science, but the community must do better with so-called data quality control. Stuff like this seeds doubt in the data, and then doubt in future predictions. Burden of proof is still on us scientists, even if we're very confident. 

Actually, I didn't put it in the thread, because I doubted it.  (I certainly doubt the snow record for TRI.)   I just thought it was kind of cool.  I lived in Knox during the 70s, and we had plenty of snow.  But I don't remember it staying around like this storm.  I did also live in Knoxville during the 95-96 winter.  Similar to 93-94, it hung around for a long time.   I think that post by MRX indeed might be correct for lower elevations in Knoxville.  Knoxville, being right smack on the river, doesn't keep snow like other areas.  Kingsport is the same.    So, seeing snow last this long is rare IMBY.  North facing slopes here still have plenty of snow as do north facing concert sidewalks.  That is ten days from the onset of snow, which is incredibly impressive.  Glad for the warm-up!!!!!

Remember when there was discussion about how dry things were in December and how warm it was?  One thing that was noted was that if this was an El Nino winter it should be cloudy and rainy, especially for the eastern half of the state.   The other thing which was noted was that the second half of winter should be colder w/ systems tracking out of the GOM.  Also, remember how the October/September time frames were so dry(this year was top 5 driest...three of the years were El Nino), but that the following winter featured a lot of cold?  

The potential for flooding is now an issue for mid and late week due to our snow pack melting -> welcome to El Nino.

The Nolichucky and North Fork of the Holston Rivers have large portions frozen over.  I have seen this one other time.  Impressive to say the least.  

Just looking at the Weeklies...the 14th looks like a good place to start for more cold weather.  So, basically the end of week 3 on modeling or the beginning of the third week in February.  The control is very cold, and maybe a bit quicker as it has the cold at the front beginning of week 3.  The ensemble was less cold while the control was pretty frigid compared to yesterday's run.  Looks like a good timeline.  It could be quicker during future runs given MJO trends...but looks about right to me.  We gotta pay the MJO toll.

10 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Nice fantasy storm for some areas at the end of the 12z GFS. 

You know, for you sickos like me who will be ready for another one in two weeks. Honestly the track is what I would expect in an El Nino. Obviously doesn't mean it will happen. 

 

MJO looks like it is hustling though 5 and may already be in 6. Satellite looks like it would be in 6 to me and trying to push int the Western Pac

Also of note is some convection now firing in the Central Pac:

Yeah, I just posted and should have read yours first.  It is MOVING on along.  Does it hit the wall in 6 or keep going?  I bet it keeps going.  Good trends.  The 12z GFS certainly seems like it is buying the faster MJO.  I suspect the ensemble will wash out and go slower...but the trends matter.  Good post.

We have two camps of the MJO today....loop back into warm phases forever or progress quickly to cold phases.  My money is on neither.  LOL.   I suspect it continues to cold phases at a normal pace.

The 12z GFS is workable for an interim timeframe until we can maybe get a better deal by Feb 10.  Backdoor cold fronts FTW?