Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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I always forget about the IO, and it burns be every...single...time I forget about it. Usually Jeff comes in and is like, "Lots of convection moving into the Maritime Continent." It took me a few times, but then I figured out that was code for...winter is about to go to crap! LOL.
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I will work on some analogs packages. This is tricky this year as we were more La Nina last winter, trended back to neutral, and may trend weakly negative again. For now and subject to change... Temps... Dec: BN Jan: N Feb: AN Precip... All months normal to slightly BN IMHO...but w/ a chance for slightly AN if you like the CANSIPS. Snow... AN eastern valley w/ an early start normal everywhere else w/ snow a bit later in middle and west (but honestly might be similar to what you got this winter)
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The CANSIPS and Euro seasonals have the PDO going to neutral w/ warmer SST temps moving closer to the coast of northern NA as winter progresses. The La Nina on both models is weak and/or trending to neutral as winter progresses. I could almost cut and paste last winter's forecast with one exception....the QBO is more favorable.
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Preliminary ideas. I look for a second winter of La Nina. Extended summer looks likely with a sharp turn to winter later in November, though the CANSIPS argues for an early fall. The Euro seasonal has summer lasting through fall. A 3-4 week period in December and January could be frigid. The QBO is now falling and has reached negative territory. Oddly, the data shows the QBO dipped negative briefly (and sharply) during December 2024 out of nowhere - interesting. To me, that looks like a mistake w/ the +/- symbol. Either way, it is falling now as we hit summer. By December, we should be hitting rock bottom. I think the stage is set for another frigid stretch sometime after or around mid-December. Sorry, I haven't been on for a bit. I have been taking a break and recharging. I have not looked at the EPO yet.
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Reports that some roads in the Smokies have been closed for bridge inspections after the tremor.
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The TRI Cities Wx Crew has a great map. It was felt almost to be coast…just a huge area.
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Confirmed 3.5 earthquake south of Knoxville along the TN/NC line about ten mins ago.
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Crazy dry IMBY right now. I am not used to having to water a bone dry garden in April.
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Leaning very cold for next winter but it's early.
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Old timers call it dogwood winter…it is a real thing like thunder in the mountains.
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Just a brutal flip in temps. On the positive, I went outside and mowed while it was misting this evening. It kept down the dust and wasn't ridiculously hot. Last week was insane for April in regards to temps here. We were CRUSHING daily record highs. Now, we are gonna have freeze warning up for tomorrow night! Crazy!!!
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12z GFS 126. Interesting.
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Looking way down the line, the new seasonal Cansips has one glaring feature for DJF next winter....a MONSTER Alaskan ridge. The only reason it isn't frigid on seasonal surface maps here is a little ridge bellying into Texas. As is, the seasonal forecast is a Midwest trough w/ seasonal temps here. That "could" turn out to be a pretty cold look as we get closer. Summer looks warm. When is it not? LOL.
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I think Sugar Mountain in NC is actually still open. With the snow tonight, they may well extend into this weekend.
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The last week of March is not looking warm.
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I saw some light snow flurries this morning.
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Light snow flurries and snow showers having been falling across TRI this morning. I believe that makes the fifth strategy month with snow in the air.
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Incredible. I am usually spared the high winds that the foothills get. I was surprised the winds here were that strong yesterday. Often, there will be wind advisories or warnings in the foothills, and it will just be breezy here. I am going to have to go back and look, but the winds yesterday may have been as bad as Helene IMBY or worse. Fortunately the ground was not soggy. I didn't see many trees down. I think the high winds from last fall purged any weaker trees and empties tries of weaker limbs.
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Wind gusts pushing 50mph here at TRI. Sustained winds are as strong as I can remember in some time.
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"A" for effort by the 6z GFS.
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18z March 9th time frame still looks interesting, and has for a while. Any system taking the low road during Feb is probably coming north.
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12z CMC(192) is trying to get interesting regarding wintry precip. The GFS and ICON do not have it...so beware.
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With the exception of about 7-10 days, I had snow continuously on the ground from say Jan 3 to yesterday (Feb 25th).
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18z GFS has great slp placement at 252. Probably the last window. As Jeff noted, things flip warm mid-month. The MJO looks like it will go to warm phases after the 15th or so. None of that is a surprise.
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Looks like overnight modeling is keying onto the March 7-8 time frame, and maybe one more shot after that. No guarantees. Looks like John has started our spring thread. Maybe we can begin spring with some snow. In like a lion.
