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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    If that had arrived at any other time of the day than peak sun angles….4-5” would have accumulated here. MBY prob picked up 0.5” of snow at two different times.
  2. Carvers Gap
    More snow showers this AM around TRI.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Thunder this morning around 7:45AM. Even by Thunder in the Mountain standards(7-10 days)…this has been a fast turn around to snow!!! Severe weather last night and snow tonight. What a cold front.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I think it is is a glitch. I can see it right now on RadarScope. It really doesn't originate from MRX. But there radar looks pretty jacked up right now - lots of bands and stuff. Someone who knows more about radar could give it a name.
  5. Carvers Gap
    That is a busy map. Hope the folks under the tornado warning are good. Whew.
  6. Carvers Gap
    West Tennessee is under enhanced storm risk and also has a freeze warning posted. That is pretty wild!!!
  7. Carvers Gap
    Oh man - I just saw this. I hate to hear that. We will be praying for you and your family.
  8. Carvers Gap
    82 and strong winds right now. 40% chance of rain and snow tomorrow. "Thunder in the Mountains" Rule looks like it is in effect. Buckle up!
  9. Carvers Gap
    Look at this gradient for real feels early next week....what a cold front.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Temps are predicted to approach 80 here at TRI today. Next Monday, rain/snow showers are predicted. Tuesday's high is forecast to be 42 with lows in the low 20s. Wind chills are likely to be in the teens. Wind chills in that time frame may well even approach single digits for NE TN in the valleys w/ wind chills in the low teens likely. For those hiking the AT, wind chills in the mountains could be below zero - plan accordingly. Some through hikers have started the trek.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS has real feels over portions of the state in the mid-single digits next Tuesday-ish.
  12. Carvers Gap
    They 18z GFS is an impressive snow storm for middle and western areas around 210. It will almost assuredly change, but it is an example of what some of us have been watching. It looks like 2-3 strong amplifications beginning around St Patrick's Day.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Man, these are some cold operational runs. To be clear so there isn't confusion. The cold I am looking at begins around mid-month, say roughly around 200 hours. 12z models are quite cold w/ snow chances embedded - both the 12z GEM and GFS. I don't see any big storms(potential is probably embedded within ensembles as Knox has shown), but snow could be in the air on more than one occasion. The second half of March is not looking warm IMHO. Again, this looks like a continuation of the pattern.....cold -> record or near record warmth -> small cold shot -> more warmth -> big cold shot. We have cycled through that pattern already twice. I think the chances of that occurring a third time are increasing, but w/ a Spring twist.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GFS was interesting for Thursday. Both the 0z GEM and 0z Euro are still showing 1-2 amplification events incoming around mid-month and just after. This could be a WILD swing given the temps we have seen during the past few days. Highs could be 40-45 degrees colder at TRI than what we are seeing and will see this weekend. Wind chills in the mid-upper teens would not surprise me at some point between d5-16.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Ensembles are honking for a pretty good cold outbreak mid-month. Duration TBD.
  16. Carvers Gap
    I still think we are likely in a repeat of the same cycle which persisted through much of winter. 2-3 weeks of cold, followed by 2-3 weeks of warm weather, followed by a false start back to cold, and then finally the trough over the East amplifies.
  17. Carvers Gap
    After the severe window, both the 12z GEM and Euro have a fairly pronounce trough sliding through the East...and maybe more than one. That will also have to be watched. That type of setup can get squirrely. Really, the severe setup followed by cold/snow showers is not without precedent.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Spring Discussion Thread has been posted....
  19. Carvers Gap
    Sure looks like a severe signal showing up between 200-240 hours.
  20. Carvers Gap
    I had been hearing about some of the heavy snows to hit Japan during the past few days. Here is a YouTube video of some of that snow. It was just posted two days, so I assume it is recent. Pretty amazing amounts.
  21. Carvers Gap
    I thought wx models did well at range w/ yesterday's NW flow potential. They kind of hiccuped within 72 hours, but eventually reality would match those prolonged upslope runs from a week ago.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Nice way to cap the season here. We had light snow falling for almost 24 hours. The snow didn't accumulate much as John noted. Last evening about 8:30, it did pick up and coat everything w/ 0.25-0.4" of powder. Schools were on delay or closed today in much of NE TN. I suspect we get 1-2 more cold shots, but for now....the rain/snow line looks like it is over the Ohio River Valley. But this is the time of year where wx models can change wildly at times. Anything is possible.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Nice little dusting IMBY which occurred over the past couple of hours. Chalk up a "trace" at my house.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Windows would be Feb 27, March 2nd, and March 5th.....nothing huge, but times to watch.
  25. Carvers Gap
    And just to add...I do think the 12z Euro and 18z GFS have enough cold and amplification where we could still score some snow. I honestly haven't looked a ton over the past few days...but they don't look terrible.
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