Carvers Gap

Yes, the mean is well west and into the E TN valley. No idea if it can get this far, but you can see the jog. You asked if this could jog northwest. I do believe the trough could verify north of where it is show currently. If so, this shifts the track.

18z GEFS left. 12z right.

Sure looks to me like the 18z GEFS ensemble members ticked NW.

Let's hope no data collection is done through the Verizon path. I doubt it, but certainly if models go haywire....we know.

The low in the Lakes is the problem. It was behind the system so not sure if it sped up?

12z RGEM was also def a bit warm…looked a bit over cooked.

Got a low parked over the Great Lakes…tearing up thermals. Bet this is still a pretty cold system. Might need that coastal.

Is Rufus RGEM?

Yeah, it probably is not getting sampled well if it is at the NP. Once it arrives on the continent, we might see a jump one way or the other. Need ground obs and plane obs.

Bitterly cold run of the 12z Euro.

Yeah, I think that run is off its rocker. There has been a trend over the past couple of deterministic suites to de-amplify d10-15, but ensembles are not biting yet. The 12z GEM is very cold. I do think the GFS is pretty good inside of d5. It has been wack-a-mole after that. A quick glance of the MJO has it heading into phase 8 between Jan26-30th depending on your model of choice. I would expect the eastern trough to go gangbusters around that time and into early Feb. Again, huge grains of salt. The MJO has not been well correlated to eastern NA weather so far this winter IMHO.

It is entirely possible that the Sunday system is just getting sampled better. But...I bet the Euro is the likely solution. The GFS has been on steroids this winter for some reason at times. Let's see where this Euro run goes...I am gonna bet it is west of its 6z run but not by a lot. If that storm actually cranks, it is gonna be frigid here.

The 12z GFS is a wild run...completely different than 6z. Flips the 500 pattern over Alaska after d7. The GEM is steadier. This may have to get settled by the ensembles. @Holston_River_RamblerI was surprised to see some solutions over E TN on the GEFS.

I really like the 20th for a northern stream system for some reason. Nice, deep trough and maybe the coldest air of the season so far.

The 12z GEM at 171 looks impressive at 500 in regards to cold air delivery.

I strongly suspect this is an EC storm. Unfortunately for all of us...may be just too far to the east. We keep getting a dang low in the Lakes. Haha.

The 12z GEM is OTS w/ barely a skiff in NC. We need to dig through that GFS run, and see if it is doing something weird. That said, the 6z Euro has the GFS solution, but it is east of the 12z GFS track.

Yes. Jog west, calibrate east, jog slightly west again. That is normally what I observe. I don't know how much room this has to come west since it is so late. There is not a lot of room. I think really our best chance is that modeling is under estimating the storm, and it gets deeper w/ each run. If it is a legit Nor'Easter, it may not have it deep enough yet. For now, looks like a Carolina special...but that could change.

The ever lovin' truth w/ the GFS.

The 12z ICON has this but is well east. The GFS is gonna have to have some more support, but it is well within range to score the coup.

I think we need it stronger.

I think this is likely a legit system for the NE at the very least. Remember, golf and I were discussing this several pages ago. The 500 trough looked ripe. Bigbald, for the GFS...yes. I think the NW jog occurs as modeling strengthens the storm sometimes as it gets closer. In other words, it underestimates the storm, tightens it up, and it pulls NW over several runs. The GFS has came well west during the past 24 hours. We are about to run out of runway though before this locks in. But w/ this being a "surprise" feature(Euro had that weird run a couple of days ago with this...might it have been right?) the track may not be locked quite yet.

Remember how we talked about the engine and caboose? When modeling can't decide between the two, it tries to split the difference. Most of the time, you will see these late trends if it finally "decides" to go w/ the caboose or second system. Yeah, Reb. Give me one more jog!!!!!

Paging @nrgjeff! The 12z GFS.....you gotta like that, right?

So what is the difference between the GFS and GEM at that time frame? Did the GFS hold something back? The GEM looks remarkably like the GFS solutions from a few days ago...tropical system and all.