Carvers Gap

Nothing burger from the 0z Euro. I have read some conversations that the MJO rolls into phase 6 right as the EPO forms. We may be seeing some of that. The Euro at 500 is still better than 12z though IMO. See u at 12z tomorrow.

Nice looks and decent agreement in general with cold placement and vastness of the airmass.

Sitting in Knoxville… The 0z AIGFS is definitely quick with the EPO ridge as it installs it around the 8th, and the trough begins to kick eastward at that time. Very cold model and the 0z GFS has basically joined it. John covers all of that nicely above.

I am also noticing at tendency on the 0z GFS to include split flow with the -EPO.

The 0z GFS loses the feedback over Baja and looks a lot like the 18z AIGFS. Let’s see how the rest of 0z goes, but they are trending colder as John has already noted with the AIGFS.

Haha. Very!!!

Watching a GFS run is like watching Tennessee play football this year. Sometimes I am like, "This is really awesome." And sometimes I am like, "How is this even possible?"

The 18z GFS is tossed....massive feedback at 240 with a Baja solution that is improbably at best. I refuse to even comment further on a model that does that.

12z EPS teleconnections. The NAO and AO remain negative, albeit weakly, as the EPO goes deeply negative. The WPO also goes weakly negative. The PNA goes neutral to slightly positive. When I first started following weather output on the internet, I used to only look teleconnection graphics and the NOGAPS. I don't think I did any worse then than I do today in the long range. But as for the teleconnection package as a whole...great look and they rarely line-up that well. Let's see if we can resell this in.......

You know if it was the late 1800s, and I had a ranch on the Plains...I would be thrilled with the warm weather. Why? Because without having to look at a weather model, I know that type of weather wasn't going to last!

The BIG question in my mind was this, "What happens after the Dec29-30th cold front?" I think a probable, and even likely answer, is now this. Dec 29-Jan10 is a transition timeframe as the eastern ridge retrogrades into the West. We get a TBD window where the EPO ridge just brings it. It would be hard to find a deterministic or ensemble run which doesn't end up here. The 12z EPS has that EPO ridge in place around 216, and then begins pushing a trough towards the east at that time. By 324 we get this -> The original window was Jan 8-10, and they may yet still verify. I would say the window is now Jan 12th, give or take a few days. Sometimes a big pattern like this is preceded by a big storm. Modeling across various products at 12z has a progression which makes sense given the analogs for this winter, recent Nina climatology, the QBO state, and...it is January - climatology fits. Good trends. Now, it is time to reel this look in. Get the pattern right, and then we can track. edit: Notice how well that tele connects? Cold in Europe. Cold in the East. HL blocking. Trough near Hawaii. Four quadrants of cold air. IF that builds, that could be tough to break down.

The 12z EPS gets there at the same time....all of the frames aren't posted yet. Pretty good continuity. And if we are too assume that ensembles are struggling to see cold this winter....they are cold now. What if the warm bias is still in play? The 12z EPS is gonna look about as good as it has all winter at Jan 10+.

The 12z AIGEFS at 360. It has the EPO ridge in place by 240, and then takes a couple of days to kick everything eastward - common theme for the 12z suite. Honestly, this look might be too cold. But see the NAO isn't really gone?

The Euro AIFS 12z deterministic run. I just go w/ a 5 day window to see the trend...Pretty good signal, right? That is a crazy cold run by the way.

And the 12z GEFS...did it finally find its way? That looks a lot like the GEPS. And that makes a lot of sense. IF that can verify w/ that little bit of SER, that is an Apps snowstorm map as well as sliders for the rest of the forum.

This is where I think we are headed - starts about 300 on most models. Somehow, the Canadian model seems to get this figured out a bit more quickly of late. It overdoes the cold, but generally gets the idea right. BTW, the 12z Euro has a cold front Jan4-5 w/ a low running just out to sea - keep an eye on that. I mean there is always a chance we don't score with this, but I would have a really hard time naming a time when this didn't work. Maybe December 17-18? Lost of great winter analog maps looks like this.

You all know that I like the Euro Weeklies control run...the CFSv2 at 6z is also crazy cold like that. The key right now is for the EPO ridge to build and the NAO to retrograde over the top into that EPO ridge. If that happens, there is really nothing to stop the cold from heading south. With deep snowpack over Canada, the skids are greased.

One thing I am noticing on several deterministic runs and on some ensembles(wonky GEFS at 12z)...there is a strong signal for an Arctic discharge just after the 10th. The AIFS Euro definitely shows this. IF that EPO ridge goes up, and I think it does, we could see very cold air sent into the Lower 48. Some modeling sets the EPO ridge too far to the the West, but I bet we do ok w/ that look.

I definitely know your avatar and Cottonwood as a location. Good to have you back and posting again this winter. You do a great job.

Did you have to make a new account? You have been on the forum for a while, right?

Sending an active STJ into an NAO block could get wild during January. It is probably feed back as the GFS is just chocked full of it, but that look has precedent.

Definitely a warm trend between say Jan 4-8. The pattern change to an eastern trough still looks good by Jan8-10th. Modeling could easily be missing a cold front in that range. Still, things look reasonably on track. Dec29-Jan10 looks like a transition time frame where the ridge retrogrades into the West. Jan 10 looks like a new pattern w/ an EPO ridge in the West. It has taken a while for the dust to settle, but that is where I "think" we are heading.

I had not noticed that, but whoa! See, I think middle and west Tenn have to really guard against this. This has been a really common feature in past winters. These cold fronts head to Texas(there you go @Daniel Boone) and the front gets hung-up over our forum area.

I was 50/50 on going to the MCB. I ended up staying in Kingsport. I have a kiddo who plays in the band for the good guys which is why I wanted it to be warm. They are gonna freeze their tails off! I about froze at the Vandy game. Thankfully, they are young and good at what they do!!! I get to make the midnight run to Knoxville tonight for pickup! I do love it, though. I should be here for the 0z runs. Haha. I slept-in a bit this morning - by my standards. Then I went running, and pretty much froze. Stopped at four miles and had enough of the wind chill. As for modeling. I think they jumped the gun just a hair and are correcting. It is more than common for models to be about a week ahead of the actual pattern change. Overall, the BIG event is Jan 8-9 when the EPO ridge goes up. I still see that, and it looks like it is moving forward with time. Also, models lose things in the 5-7 day range...so there is that. I still very much like where we are headed. VERY MUCH. Honestly, I like reading what you all post. So, sometimes I just back down my volume a bit which can be a bit much. Our daily 12z GFS "this ain't gonna happen" post -> but if it did -> The Day After Tomorrow.

Fun story, before I read Holston's posts on this...my family just called it the Twilight Zone. That area always has the worst weather - thunderstorms (especially out of the northwest), snow showers, wind, etc. I have traveled that section of road for forty years. Same deal for that long. Again, Alpine, Wy, has a very similar deal as does an area just north of Jackson(snow hole area). I think that place is Moran.