Carvers Gap

The 12z Euro has a slider around 300. Granted, it's 300 but it sure seems like modeling is picking up on a bit more colder air than it had last week. As for the upcoming system....Sometimes, E TN can get into the gig. The 12z Euro is weak and barely a storm. The UKMET is well inland. I tend to think the solution is probably in the middle. Trends will have to be watched over the next few runs.

12z scorecard. UKMET is deep inland runner and likely too warm. GEM is money track. GFS is more of a coastal but close. ICON is snow showers and light upslope here. If I could wish cast, I would take a blend for MBY.

Indeed. Good catch. How has that model been this winter? Like the GEM, it had almost nothing at 0z. Much bigger and deepening solution. Even w/ the UKMET solution, I would think heights would crash quickly w/ a storm going that big. Maybe a late bloomer? IDK.

Look at the 12z GFS with its wind direction...nearly perfect for northwest facing areas. And this is the "weaker solution" on the 12z GFS.

The 12z GFS does the same thing but further east. Both reach hurricane force in terms of wind strength. Whether we can get in on the action? IDK. However, I would think the northwest flow game behind that would be pretty strong.

The 12z GEM brings that to right at 960 as it runs it up the coast. Look at the sustained winds and gusts. That is hurricane force.

Check out this storm evolution....This is the west side of the cone at this point. That slp track is nearly perfect for E TN. Not trying to leave out our middle and western folks, but this is the track of a huge storm. Again, I think this is an outside chance for E TN....but models have been hinting at this possibility.

The 12z GEM would be a winter storm for the northern Plateau, SE KY, SW VA, NE TN, and WNC at minimum. The ingredients are there. I am not sure it can get back this far west, but the GEM shows one path towards that. This has a chance to be a monster on the coast.

The 12z GEM dumped 72" over portions of DELMARVA.....I have been watching this system for a few days. The 12z GFS backed west but is no threat here, but the trend matters. Not sure it can get back this far w/ 100 hours to go, but the GEM is potent over E TN, especially the mountains. However, lower elevations would be impacted by that solution.

The 12z Canadian is a slightly inland runner or coastal hugger depending on your perspective. Worth watching.

Wow. Weather is such an amazing thing to follow.

I want an 8" dusting of snow. Seriously, we have been watching this cam all day, and just amazed. I cannot imagine the Donner Party in that. Sadly, I think they have a bunch of skiers We just need a "wow" response.

Is that Fiebiger?

Right on time. Absolutely white out conditions on the Wooly cam.

Jed, I would love to see four feet of snow in two days. One day, I am gonna make the trip when the atmospheric river cuts loose out there. I have already told my family that exact thing! John, 4" per our is just incredible. It is humming right now.

Yes, they are closed today. Other than the obvious, the real danger is skiing in deep snow on ungroomed trails. Tree wells and falling off the edge of groomed areas....one can just get buried and suffocate. Plus, right now, they won't operate lifts with that wind. It is absolutely insane right now. We stayed (this summer) about four apartment complexes down the road from the Mammoth cam and it is just crazy how little you can see in that wind driven snow. Pretty much whiteout conditions at 9,000'. I can't imagine what it is between 12,000-14,000' in the Sierra.

Check this Mammoth cam out.... https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

The 12z GEM and GFS are portraying a track which wouldn't take much to make it really interesting. Thanks @Math/Metfor the Google AI run. Wow.

Mammoth was WILD last night!!! The 6z AIFS Euro has a "north of I40" track for the storm we have been discussing. I think it is likely more of a KY storm w/ wrap around, upslope snow here....but that is a pretty big shift. It went from nothing to something for snow.

I am beginning to think that there is some connection between snow and Mammoth and cold temps here about 1-2 weeks later.

The problem w/ the Euro all winter is that it's too dry. With both the GFS and CMC showing the strong potential for strong amplification....I think we at minimum see an upslope event for northwest facing slopes. BTW....go check out the Mammoth webcams. 4-8' w/ this storm. 100mph winds on top. Even by there standards, this is decent gig. https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

Yeah, that is a pretty big pattern reversal being shown across 12z modeling. Both the 12z GFS and Euro are close to something decent. At the very least, winter temps are back on the map by next Sunday....and then more thereafter. It is uncanny how close that is to this last cold evolution from Christmas to January 11th.

Bitterly cold air is potentially making it into the pattern by late next weekend. I am see BZ wind chills for the mountains and single digit or low teens for the valleys. With strong amplification involved....I have to think we are about to see some sort of repeat of late January - at least the possibility is growing.

U all been looking at model output over the last three runs?.......................

For me, it looks like a potentially big cold shot coming at some point during March. That isn't really earth shattering news, but just trying to time it is going to be the tough part. The CFSv2 has it at 6z and the Euro Weeklies mean has March being progressively colder. You all know your own climatology. Folks in NE TN and the Plateau can score well into early April. March snow is not an anomaly IMBY, though it has been during La Nina. I am really excited that maybe this summer won't be ridiculously hot w/ the onset of El Nino and same for fall. Jury is out on next winter. If the El Nino is moderate or strong, I will roll w/ a torch for DFJ. If it is weak, I will roll with December warm, and January and February seasonal but snow chances. The strength of the El Nino is crucial. Sometimes lately, even a weak El Nino is torchy here.