Carvers Gap

Nope. Major temp bust. 0 was my forecast low. Radiational cooling due to snow pack will undercut many temp forecasts when skies clear. Modeling had this correct...the point and click did not.

There have been only three record lows set during the 2000s at TRI during February. 2026 now holds two of those three records(both sub zero temps). 2015 holds the other. A little bit of history made at TRI to start February.

Looks like TRI actually made it to -7F according to WCYB social media. David Boyd notes that the Feb 1 record was also broken last night as temps hit 1F right before midnight. Two records in one night....

The 12z RGEM puts half a foot in some areas one SW VA Weds-Thursday. @Daniel Boonehas been all over this.

Great find.

We have snow flurries as well.

Wow!!! That is truly impressive.

Looks like KTRI dipped to -6F according to the 3 day weather history. The low which was broken was from 1971(0F), and was TRI's coldest temp in 11 years per David Boyd, a met at WCYB. When we start breaking record lows from the 70s, that is saying something.

Just shuffling through wx maps and the weeklies. It looks like next weekend could be very cold yet again. Then, we warm-up during the second week of February. That has been well advertised and is no surprise. Then, sometime between d17-24 we could have another strong cool down per the Euro weeklies mean and control. That holds for roughly 2-3 weeks. Again, that really fits the winter pattern. But....changing wave lengths have the potential to create more chaos than normal within modeling. We are entering a time frame where LR modeling gets very undependable, even at the long wave level. But I do think roughly sometime between Feb 17-20 looks like the next resupply of very cold air(after this weekend). The NAO will often not be felt by modeling until just a few days prior to it strengthening. It establishes sometime (if models are correct) between Feb 8-9th. Then, I think it takes about 7-10 days for the eastern NA pattern to respond w/ a suppressed storm track.

The 18z GFS is advertising upslope next weekend for NE TN, SW VA, SE KY, and IF real...likely the Plateau works itself into the equation.

Cosgrove warned on his Saturday night extended forecast that the upcoming, brief warm spell could lull people into thinking winter is over. He noted that winter should return fiercely around mid-month and last through roughly the first week of March - then we break for spring which may well be wet and stormy according to LC. I see a window around Feb 15th and one around the 21st. The last half of the month looks cooler than the first half. If we are talking 95-96 as an analog, winter came back yet again after the first series of storms during that winter. OTH, 85(also an analog) simply got warm in February. I gotta be honest....I need some warm wx for a few days. Jan31st was -20.6 BN for TRI. That is an incredible number. TRI will finish w/ 8.6" of snow for January. Amazing finish to the month given that we had incredibly warm days for Jan 1-10th. I do think we need to watch any cold front(next weekend for example) as sometimes modeling has under-modeled the cold. So far, we have had two very cold air masses strike this winter...One after Thanksgiving which lasted into the middle of December. We had about a three week warm-up, and then the more severe cold shot(currently) hit. It has lasted for nearly three weeks. I suspect we repeat the pattern one more time, but am not guaranteeing this. The Weeklies do support a cool down during weeks 3-4. But just because we warm-up for a bit does not mean snow is not possible during that "warm-up." The NAO will likely be negative which places the storm track south of its normal location. We have just witnessed one of the great winter reversals of this century after that wild chinook.

Ah, yeah. I forget he is in the TRI right now! Awesome for him!!! Weeklies looked decent. Feb10-20 there is a -NAO w/ a trough undercutting the block from Seattle to Savannah. That is often a great setup, but still a ways to go before that - so it could change. But the 500 map looks good. I always kind of find that February is a month where we look for windows of winter precip. It is also a month where the jet can buckle on very short notice - remember that February is a time when the long wave winter pattern at 500 breaks down over the NH. That means that the amplitude of troughs/ridges often increase and the frequency of those troughs/ridge can be more numerous. It can be a month of chaos. I wouldn't even worry about d10-16 right now....very likely to change many times. And this week is not without things to track. Next weekend has ago be watched. It is weird, but weekend winter storms are incredibly common as are storms on a 7 day rotation.

Tallahassee, FL, is forecast tomorrow (during the day) to have 9F wind chills. Check out their forecast discussion for today. Here are some excerpts. FXUS62 KTAE 311752 The coldest air and wind chills will arrive Saturday night with the strong cold air advection continuing as we will still have elevated winds of around 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph through the night. Temperatures are expected to fall into the low 20s, and perhaps the upper teens. A (Hard) Freeze Warning is in effect because of these cold temperatures. This product is mainly for advisement to protect exposed plants and pipes. Apparent temperatures will be bitterly cold with values in the single digits, ranging from 3 to 7 degrees! Hypothermia onset will be quick as cold air and strong winds efficiently pull heat from all living things that are outside. Sheltering and minimal exposure will be incredibly important Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Due to these extremely cold wind chills, an Extreme Cold Warning is in effect to warn all living things about the dangerously cold temperatures and to be sure to find adequate shelter.

What a January it has been! We started off anomalously warm w/ everyone eyeing Jan 11th as a return to the eastern trough which began winter. We had just experienced a roaring chinook nationwide with much AN temps to end December and begin January. Winter returned w/ a roar on the 11th, but quite dry. That changed quickly, however, with a crippling ice storm last weekend for parts of Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee to name a few. One week later, E TN would get in on the action w/ a mid-winter snowstorm in which snow fell into sub-freezing temps which started off in the low 30s and dropped into the teens with wind chills in the low single digits. As I write this, the WC is 6F w/ north-south snow bands ripping through on cold north winds. I feel nearly certain blizzard conditions have been experienced above 5000' in the Smokies. IMBY, we close out the month under a winter storm warning with last weekend's ice and winter storm encompassing almost half of the United States. TRI will finish more than a degree BN for temps w/ snowfall much AN. This month is living proof that winter can flip quickly and decisively. This winter may well be added to the long list of -QBO winters which have historical aspects. The cold of the past two weeks has been impressive. We have ice flowing down the North Fork of the Holston.

You all have been wracking up. Great storm for the Greene Co crew which was long overdue for a great storm.

It is amazing how snow in north Florida is more and more common with each passing season. It is no longer a novelty in my book.

I was just telling someone that I bet the peaks may be pushing 2-3'.

The big player on the NA field looks like a monster NA w/ marginal Pacific. That means good storm tracks but "just right" cold air. Timing will be important, but the pattern right after the 10th looks ripe. Is February finally gonna be February this year, ie big swings and overperforming snows?

I would guess this is the very coldest of air pouring into the region on a fresh snowpack. That is triggering nearly north-south snow bands. The atmosphere is squeezing out every last drop of moisture. We have had several heavy bands of snow here this afternoon. It is amazing how cold my hands get with these temperatures.

The first ten days of Feb were supposed to be warm-ish as in back to normal...and IDK if that is actually gonna work out. Take a look at the 12z GFS....one chance after another. I do think mid-month is a good window. But Wednesday has to be watched as does next weekend. Saturday-Monday is a window as well w/ a chance at a strong cold front. I am not even sure we are done w/ below zero stuff after early this week. I will say this...at some point this bitterly cold pattern is gonna break, even if spring forces it. And yes, I do think we have a warm ridge rolling through at some point, but I have to be honest...I am good w/ a few warm days. I need to thaw out. Morning runs w/ wind chills below 5F are not fun.

Glad to see the Chattanooga crew score!!!

And this is why we don't cancel winter in early and mid December...or late January. Mother Nature doesn't care if we cancel it. LOL. We had a crippling ice storm last weekend and a decent snowstorm this weekend. Two BIG events which have been accompanied by very cold temps. January will now finish BN for temps for most or right at seasonal. Snowfall and/or ice should finish AN for many. What a month of weather we have had. Started off crazy warm, and ended in the freezer. As for February? I continue to think we have a window right around mid-month if not before. Eventually, we are going to warm-up, and that seems like the second week of March if things don't flip before then...and we do need to keep an eye out for that.

These photos are from I81 between mile markers 50-57. The snow covered exit is Jearoldstown Rd.

Ended up w/ about 6" of snow here in west Kingsport. Had to run an errand this morning - had 5" of snow prior to leaving. I81 is one lane(meaning two tire tracks for that one lane) and is sketchy at times, especially off amps and on ramps - deep snow. Nothing has been plowed yet. I26 is a mess as well. The main arteries in Kingsport have not been plowed, but some side roads have been. If you get under a snow band, visibility drops to about a quarter or eighth of a mile. Overall, roads are in pretty awful shape. 4WD, all wheel drive, or front wheel driver recommended. Temps are frigid.