Carvers Gap

We did the southwest coast of Oregon....huge fan! I like YNP...the crowds have been bad lately. The Sierra Nevada and Oregon Coast have a lot more room to spread out, even if parking lots are crowded. We fished in places where we saw maybe 5-10 total on the trail all day and only one other angler. The southwest coast of Oregon is a blast. Bucket lists are the Alps of Italy and Crested Butte to see the Alpine Meadows during late June and early July. Boulder and Alamosa for running for sure. Fairbanks as well. I have too many bucket list items for my checkbook! LOL. Does anyone know why the GEM is running late today? It looks like it is hung-up at 100ish....

Some decent storm looks. As @Holston_River_Ramblernoted about this time frame....definitely some ingredients in place for one or more storms. That trough east of Hawaii is usually money. Image 1: D11-16 AIGFS Image 2: Day 10-15 Euro Image 3: The end of the Euro run and not an uncommon look across modeling at 12z.

Yeah, @John1122shared some posts about it a few years ago. I am hooked on watching atmospheric river events now. Their storm total is 67" so far. It is hugely important for California. The Los Angeles Water District gets a ton of water from the east slops of the Sierra Nevada. We traveled out there last summer - mainly because the outdoor opportunities are just about endless. The city of Mammoth is a decent size, but it is REMOTE. The hiking there is pretty incredible, and the scenery is about as close to what I would imagine the Alps would be. I am a huge Yellowstone NP fan, but this area might top that - plus no grizzlies!!! Their ski season was in serious danger. The ground was bare which is pretty unprecedented. So, getting this much snow will save their season. The webcams there are wild today w/ the wind. It looks like most of the lifts are closed. I know they have to pack and groom a lot of those slopes since bare ground was their prior to Christmas Eve. My hope is to one day travel out there during an atmospheric river event. Plane tix into Vegas are cheap if you are willing to drive the 6 hours from there. Reno is the better airport(only three hours), and you can see Lake Tahoe on the way. But man, those mountain drives are no joke in places. We really enjoyed Yosemite NP at Tioga Pass, a white knuckle drive but worth it. It is only about 1.5 hours from Mammoth. If you like fly fishing alpine streams - no place better I don't imagine.

And the 12z AIGFS does exactly the same thing as the 12z Euro.

The 12z Euro really wants to get rid of the Aleutian high. By roughly 162, it pretty much begins the process of wiping it out within hours. The run ends w/ the EPO hooking into the NAO. Now, I am not saying that is gonna happen, but if that does...that is the gold standard.

The 12z AIGFS is a fun pattern. Cold with chances.

12z is a bit more interesting in terms of winter wx. The GFS is again stronger with the Jan2 cold front. Both the the GEM and GFS hint at WAA right after.

Interesting quote from MammothSnowman after a very rough start to their season(uncharacteristically no snow in much of the Sierra Nevada)... Storm Summary as of Christmas afternoon, the snow study site showed 4.66 inches of water content at 6 AM, and at 2:30 PM, the gauge is at 6.07 inches with 14.7 inches of new snow today. Snowfall Storm Total amounts at the snow study site are an estimated 65 inches. Adding the 30% adjustment for the Top, the Powder Fields of Mammoth would now have received over 79.5 inches of fresh snow. The Christmas Miracle Storm has come through with tons of base snow, and the season is saved at the last bell. Amazing…

@John1122, Mammoth is getting absolutely hammered right about now. Those cam stills are impressive.

Last post for a bit...any time we start seeing big highs in Canada on modeling, that has been a good signal for winter weather in our area. 17-18 would be the exception.

I agree. Nice window. The end of January and early February has a similar signal. I really want to see if the 12z GEM moderates its temps for Jan 2 or if other models move colder. The 6z Euro trended colder as did several members of the ensemble, but ended before it got here. Not sure I want to see that entire air mass on Jan 2nd. I think our best bet is for the Canadian Rockies cold to come out in pieces and catch the STJ if it can get more active. I think the GEM has the right idea with the cold front on January 2nd, but also is suffering from feedback in the form of too much cold. But any air mass which is that cold could very well have snow with it. I will guess moderation for Jan 2, but still cold. That leaves the door open for Jan 6-10 to have a storm IMHO.

The 6z run has a 1065 over the Yukon on Jan 9. And that run of the GFS...sends it.

Yeah, I missed that. Fun find. Definitely feedback IMHO, but IMPRESSIVE that any model could actually find a way to that outcome. I just don't understand why we are seeing so much of that(feedback) this winter. WxBell graphics had to resort to white in order to illustrate that....they ran out of colors.

All 3 global ensembles breakdown the Aleutian high. The 0z GEPS and 6z GEFS take it out just after 300. The 0z EPS wipes it out just after 200. All three end up with some version of blocking around Greenland, a ridge out West or the Eastern Pac, cold in Alaska, and BN temps and/or heights over the SE which is fed by an anomalously cold Yukon air mass. Sort of looks like the same pattern we had to start December? Right now, the potential cold pattern looks dry. I can't disagree with it. However, to quote a met in the ENSO thread...it is very unlikely modeling can see details this far out(referencing d+1-) regarding storms. Generally, I think our forum scores best when we have cold in place, or it is just lurking in the Plains. One would think the entire Canadian Rockies cold air mass kicks eastward at some point. It has during recent winters. There are hints of that in modeling - some sooner and some later. Lastly, LR ext modeling(weeklies) hints that the strongest cold shot will be near the end of January and into early February. I simply don't know at this range, but it is worth keeping an eye on.

It may seem a bit quiet in here, and thus mean overnight runs were not good. Nope, they were good, especially regarding cold. The 6z GFS produced a run with the January 2 cold front, and the 6z Euro was headed that way. Does it get as cold as the 0z GEM which has been leading the way in finding cold fronts? Probably not - I hope not. But the GEM (let's see how 12z looks at lunch) may be on its way to scoring another coup. It identified the Dec 29-30th front first as well. That may mean we have a useful instrument going forward in identifying cold fronts - just add some degrees back. The 0z Euro looked really good at 500.

IF the NAO were to hold w/ the 18z GFS look in the Pacific late in that run....now, that would be fun. What an EPO ridge on that run. I have no idea if the flip flopping is over(prob not), but what a reversal after d8 when compared to 12z for the GFS. Still plenty of uncertainty, but trends have been decent today. I may be back later. If not, I hope all of you have had a great Christmas w/ still more hours to enjoy. I have to admit, I enjoyed running in the 50 degree temps this morning - don't think bad of me! Haha.

The 18z is a jailbreak pattern after 300 in fantasy land. It pretty much mirrors the GEM runs, but about a week later. I think modeling just isn't sure which cold front to send the cold with...we noted that yesterday or this morning. Good trends, but a ways to go.

The 18z GFS continues on its own solution path. But it kind of still manages to get to where other models are by about Jan 6. For those who are enjoying Alaska extreme runs...That is a -85.4 reading. And the EPO ridge pops....all of that is headed for the Canadian Prairies. It modifies quickly as it heads south and east...but that is the ticket if you want winter.

Here is another nugget from the 18z ICON. It isn't a December map, but extrapolate...LOL. addendum: The way that run looked. It had the PNA locked into the West w/ the AO and NAO negative. If the GFS can back its trough up just a little, it gets here IMHO. At 18z it isn't there, but it trended that way again at 500.

I really am interested in the Jan 2nd timeframe. If we can hit that in a reloading pattern, that would be good IMHO. Here are ensemble members for major ensembles. Only the GEFS is void. I wouldn't list it as an outlier quite yet, but with the 12z GFS trends...probably it is. Pretty nice uptick since yesterday. In the unlikely chance the GEM hits a coup(along with its ensemble), that would be an impressive cold air regime which pinwheels in. Still plenty of uncertainty as of yet.

Texas or sure needs a MUCH better Pacific. We just need a serviceable Pacific w/ the NAO in place. I think climatology eventually wins with this setup. For mountain areas, climatology could win bigly. Foothills areas....TBD. Middle and western areas...I would say sliders are the best opportunity w/ the NAO. But we'll see. You all usually find a way to score w/ Nina winters and ample cold. Even souther areas of the forum(northern regions of the Gulf states have a shot).

Here is the 30day map. There are several good time frames in here which are washed out - day 7 increments have those. Really, there is a window between, Jan6-20. The graphic above(from me) makes it look like we have to wait until week 3. No, the good window is now on today's 12z EPS run(not the Weeklies). I wanted to add this one so you all can see where the NAO is centered...right over the Davis Straits. @Golf757075, there it is. Let's see if it verifies. There is another window to start February. Now, that is shades of 95-96 IMHO. To get off to a good start, we need a cold front on Jan 2 and/or 5th to score w/ getting cold into the forum area. Cold in place almost always is our best way forward. I kind of wanted to make sure the past day or two of weeklies runs weren't one-offs...before commenting. But still, proceed at your own risk. Models have been absolutely treacherous at this range.

@John1122, I am not sure I trust the Euro Weeklies right now, but as @GaWxnoted...pretty big changes in the week 3-5 range. Basically, the pattern just is wash...rinse...repeat. NAO/Aleutian high -> NAO/+PNA...over and over. This is week 3, and would be awesome to have for peak climatology.

For really the first time in a few weeks, ensembles are pretty bullish with the exception of the GFS/GEFS which are just worlds apart from any other model - even its own AI model. They are outliers. In my book, though, the deterministic models have led the way. Something is not right w/ wx modeling right now. I maybe can remember one winter where modeling was completely blind to cold fronts. The GEM, with its cold bias, is useful right now, because it exaggerates the pattern enough to find them. Sometimes when graphics are exaggerated (like increasing exposure on a camera), one can spot details which can't be spotted otherwise. In this case, the GEM is spotting cold fronts in a similar manner. Just subtract the cold bias. My guess is the mistakes are occurring with the MJO region which has no real clear signal, the extreme cold in Canada, the NAO stepping onto the scene, and was the Aleutian high over estimated in terms of staying power? Throw in some atmospheric river stuff...and it is understandable that struggles are occurring. But this deal where the GFS can't even see a cold front past d7 is really weird - something has been tweaked in the model IMHO. It is just missing wildly right now...unless the pattern is warm.

The trend of models being blind to cold fronts (until a week out) appears to be continuing. Just so very odd.