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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Frost is possible(even likely) over portions of NE TN on Sunday morning. Folks w/ gardens need to keep an eye on this. MRX no longer issues freeze or frost warnings(don't get me started!). I just about got caught a few weeks ago when I just glanced at the map and thought we were clear. Fortunately AppleWx had the temp correct, and I covered my plants. The 6z GFS has temps as low as 32 over TRI. That could do serious damage to crops which were put out early. I have already ordered some cheap covers for plants, and delayed planting cold sensitive plants.
  2. Carvers Gap
    It rained like crazy here overnight. Very thankful. I do think we are heading towards a pattern w/ more rain, and much cooler weather. I would not be shocked to see snow at higher elevations(above 5000') during early May if things work out correctly. AT hikers need to pay attention. Big weather changes under way as we speak. I am not saying the drought gets busted(those often take months to eradicate), but we should get some relief.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Do I dare even say it? Haha. The GFS has snow in higher elevations to begin May. 6z was nuts. 12z has it as well in SW VA. BIG changes coming to our weather. Kudos to the Euro Weeklies for absolutely nailing this potential pattern change coming up.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Dwagner....that is crazy insane. Well, you all can thank me for the copious amounts of cold weather incoming. My tomatoes and peppers arrived in the mail yesterday. They are about to be on the struggle bus in about 7 days. Thankfully, rain appears to be on tap. Now, let's go watch some NFL Draft.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I will say this....in NE TN, many of the tornadoes have been daytime recently. The one that did $30k worth of hail damage to my house was during the day. Now, when I lived in Knoxville...it was almost all nighttime. NE TN has to almost have a sustained SW to NE track of whatever system is required to produce tornado activity here. Derecho stuff sometimes will do it from the NW. But it requires a huge SW fetch to get that type of severe into NE TN. IDK...maybe that is why daytime threats are worse here. Knoxville and points west...totally different animal. I don't even know if I can name a daytime threat in Knoxville, but remember having to go to the basement many times as a kid at night during crazy bad storms. The '93 outbreak(college at UT at the time) I am pretty sure was evening or night...maybe during a Friends season final episode.
  6. Carvers Gap
    We have managed a couple of decent rain showers. It won't dent the drought, but it will provide some temporary relief. As for relief, there might be some on the way as we begin May. Temps look to fall BN right as we end April and begin May. It won't be anything overly shocking I don't think - some frost likely I think. It will feel sharper than it really is due to the much AN temps we have seen(summer like) during the past couple of weeks. Hopefully, that heat has abated until its proper time. I don't see mid 80s on my phone any longer, and that is a relief. We don't want summer heat building during April. Even with La Nina fading, any residual effects from that dying Enso phase could still produce very hot and dry weather. Hopefully, Enso neutral and Nino conditions take hold sooner than later. That should bring more precip and moderation of temps.
  7. Carvers Gap
    It is freaking hot!!! 83F in the middle of April is the worst. Looks like both the GEFS ext and Euro Weeklies are showing a cold down during the first couple of weeks of May. No, I don't mean snow. But maybe it means we aren't going to see mid summer heat show up two months earl any longer!
  8. Carvers Gap
    Ditto. My garden has been doing decently well so far, but I too have fought the urge to plant the warm wx stuff. I may risk planting 1-2 in a cold frame next week. This pattern seems pretty stable, but we have both seen warm, spring patterns flips to one frost after another. The drought monitor has drought expanding across much of Tennessee.
  9. Carvers Gap
    We badly need some rain here. Mammoth may get absolutely hammered from Saturday to Saturday. That seems to signal better things(precip wise) when they get it going. Looks like we might need a snow cam watch posted for Mammoth.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Both the 12z and 18z GFS have another system in the d8-9 range. This is the time of year(shoulder season) when that model can score a coup just like it did a couple of days ago. Not saying it is the gospel, but I think the end of the month is a time frame to be watched. That was a pretty stout run. The 12z Euro has the amplification w/out the storm.
  11. Carvers Gap
    If that had arrived at any other time of the day than peak sun angles….4-5” would have accumulated here. MBY prob picked up 0.5” of snow at two different times.
  12. Carvers Gap
    More snow showers this AM around TRI.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Thunder this morning around 7:45AM. Even by Thunder in the Mountain standards(7-10 days)…this has been a fast turn around to snow!!! Severe weather last night and snow tonight. What a cold front.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I think it is is a glitch. I can see it right now on RadarScope. It really doesn't originate from MRX. But there radar looks pretty jacked up right now - lots of bands and stuff. Someone who knows more about radar could give it a name.
  15. Carvers Gap
    That is a busy map. Hope the folks under the tornado warning are good. Whew.
  16. Carvers Gap
    West Tennessee is under enhanced storm risk and also has a freeze warning posted. That is pretty wild!!!
  17. Carvers Gap
    Oh man - I just saw this. I hate to hear that. We will be praying for you and your family.
  18. Carvers Gap
    82 and strong winds right now. 40% chance of rain and snow tomorrow. "Thunder in the Mountains" Rule looks like it is in effect. Buckle up!
  19. Carvers Gap
    Look at this gradient for real feels early next week....what a cold front.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Temps are predicted to approach 80 here at TRI today. Next Monday, rain/snow showers are predicted. Tuesday's high is forecast to be 42 with lows in the low 20s. Wind chills are likely to be in the teens. Wind chills in that time frame may well even approach single digits for NE TN in the valleys w/ wind chills in the low teens likely. For those hiking the AT, wind chills in the mountains could be below zero - plan accordingly. Some through hikers have started the trek.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS has real feels over portions of the state in the mid-single digits next Tuesday-ish.
  22. Carvers Gap
    They 18z GFS is an impressive snow storm for middle and western areas around 210. It will almost assuredly change, but it is an example of what some of us have been watching. It looks like 2-3 strong amplifications beginning around St Patrick's Day.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Man, these are some cold operational runs. To be clear so there isn't confusion. The cold I am looking at begins around mid-month, say roughly around 200 hours. 12z models are quite cold w/ snow chances embedded - both the 12z GEM and GFS. I don't see any big storms(potential is probably embedded within ensembles as Knox has shown), but snow could be in the air on more than one occasion. The second half of March is not looking warm IMHO. Again, this looks like a continuation of the pattern.....cold -> record or near record warmth -> small cold shot -> more warmth -> big cold shot. We have cycled through that pattern already twice. I think the chances of that occurring a third time are increasing, but w/ a Spring twist.
  24. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GFS was interesting for Thursday. Both the 0z GEM and 0z Euro are still showing 1-2 amplification events incoming around mid-month and just after. This could be a WILD swing given the temps we have seen during the past few days. Highs could be 40-45 degrees colder at TRI than what we are seeing and will see this weekend. Wind chills in the mid-upper teens would not surprise me at some point between d5-16.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Ensembles are honking for a pretty good cold outbreak mid-month. Duration TBD.
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