Carvers Gap

I have said that I like the GEPS - para. Pretty big over-running event on that model - several waves. Rain, ice, sleet, snow. Yes, it is 240 and it will likely change, but....this showed up at 18z on other models.

When you begin to see system south of the forum...that generally is not a bad thing. Need room for that to trend north.

Let's see if the Euro AIFS can score a dub...

Unfortunately, CPC now almost entirely refuses to used any 1900s analogs. They broke down on the 6-10 day analog package and was partially used 1994. 2014 was partially incorporated for the 6-10. 2010 was partially used for d8-14. The fly in the ointment is drought. That said, I think the STJ will give us a few chances. The d6-10 window is AN precip FWIW.

CPC d8-14 and d6-10 analog probability maps for temps.

Just looking through the 12z and 18z suites....there is a very strong signal for possible two shots of cold air that could push near zero temps into our forum area. This fits with recent Nina winters. I will wait a couple of days before fully embracing that look, but for now...I would say confidence is growing that very cold air may pay us a visit. Need about 48 hours more of model runs to be sure.

It is probably over done, but there are places in the forum that are projected to be nearly 15-20 degrees BN for a 7 day time frame. There is a 5 day time frame that is over 20 degrees BN. Incredibly impressive numbers. I have to think that we see some severe winter weather somewhere in the forum with that. Very concerned about ice.

18z GFS holds steady with its cold and wintry look.

It is interesting that we had a cold week last week....exactly mirror to last year. On social media, an icy trail showed up from last year on this date.

I am probably not as down on the 12z Euro. I am really just looking to see where the gradient is going to set up. I think the risk has always been that it would jog north. However, there will likely be an ebb and flow to this. Anything can change that gradient at this range. Again, I tend to think S KY is in a prime spot for the first wave of this. Just now digging through the 12z stuff after watching the basketball game.

Yeah, man. No ice over-running. I had enough power outage stuff during Helene. The worst! But probably a good reason to follow ensembles at this point. EURO AI EPS and GEFS at 12z are pretty beefy. I have to imagine individuals within each run are showing some big solutions. I haven't looked yet.

The Euro AIFS EPS is about as beefy as one could get an ensemble for this area.

The 12z GEM and Euro have lots of frozen precip. The west-east gradient appears to be setting up somewhere between I-40 and southern Kentucky.

The 12z GFS has the 0z Euro Arctic outbreak over much of the eastern half of the United States.

Light dusting here this morning. Congratulations to @1234snowon the snow! I thought I would share the 0z Euro from overnight. This is a major feature on the map, and must be worked out before we know sensible weather on the ground. That is a legit cold air mass. Both the GFS and Euro have below zero and single digit temps descending into the forum area w/ the amplification just after the 25th. Is this a real feature? No idea. Modeling has done a good job of spotting cold fronts recently after struggling earlier this month. However, they have tended to over-do the southward extension of the cold and the intensity. If this were to verify, that is a major ice setup in the eastern Valley. Decent signal for yet another strong amplification around Jan 27-28.

The 18z GFS is on winter storm #3 at 288.

The 18z GFS is just one big over-running event. Can the cold get here in the amounts we need? Can the STJ show up as modeled?

Halftime. I posted this on June 8th in the winter spec thread...I still think many areas end up w/ normal snowfall FWIW.....my eastern valley AN snowfall looks in jeopardy for sure. Snow is ALWAYS a crapshoot. Some good takes and some HOT takes!!!! I will work on some analogs packages. This is tricky this year as we were more La Nina last winter, trended back to neutral, and may trend weakly negative again. For now and subject to change... Temps... Dec: BN Jan: N Feb: AN Precip... All months normal to slightly BN IMHO...but w/ a chance for slightly AN if you like the CANSIPS. Snow... AN eastern valley w/ an early start normal everywhere else w/ snow a bit later in middle and west (but honestly might be similar to what you got this winter)

The 18z GFS is definitely running w/ the over-running idea. Unsurprisingly it has trended slightly north, BUT...this looks like the winters of the past decade where the cold stalls either at the Plateau or Apps. I bet if you dig back through my winter forecast in June, you will see this scenario mentioned.

And I get that it is frustrating for some. My pet peeve is tracking a potential pattern change, and it turns into a seasonal frontal passage. Haha. I just don't see this as a "can kick". Jan 1-10 was a can kick. This weekend's system was a pretty bad model error in terms of synoptics. I do think the GFS has a tendency to (erroneously)really, really amplify features on the map at times between the d 7-15 times. I don't understand it. It wasn't like that last winter that I can recall - maybe I need to go back and check. Right now, we are fighting widespread drouth over the SE. Trying to get a moisture conveyor belt going over drought areas is like pulling teeth.

What we are looking for is an STJ wave to have a trailing hp or one over the top. It looks like the GFS held back cold on this run, and it will dump SE w/ the second system.

The second system on the 18z GFS should be good as it has a big high over the top.

Illustrative of what we have been talking about w/ the GL low....take a look at the 18z GFS. The high scoots out quicker on the 22nd. A weak slp slides in over the top, and thermals get mixed. Also, as I noted earlier....we really want that slider a bit south of us as most of those features have trended a bit warmer and further north one time - all of that normal. However, I wouldn't be surprised for this to trend colder at some point. As is on the 18z GFS...ice setup.

Got the EB mega heat island on the north end of LI and the D--tar smell from **** on the south end. I have been thankful for winter westerlies! KPT folks have extra wx "hurdles" for sure. Plus, the S Holston(KPT) is the lowest elevation in TRI I believe. I also think tailwaters (50s year round) are somewhat of an insulator to really cold or really warm temps.

Well, that adds a layer of small bit interest for me. When is the best lift if there is "best lift?"