Carvers Gap

Another day with the fetch from the east…this time the SE. Seeing storms track from the Apps to SE KY is always crazy to watch.

As ALWAYS, great disco in this thread.

We are over due for a non-winer in NE TN. Just looking at yesterday's and today Euro LR ex control...winter may start early in the Rockies. Of course that means it will be extended summer here...haha -> the the pattern discussion thread and you will know why I am laughing. Every, single time. I think we see severe cold in the Canadian front rang or Plains at times. The real question is weather there will be a mechanism to move it southeastward. I have been watching solar flux lately. I know...I am bored w/ this pattern. Anyway, with the double peak over for this solar cycle, that could be a good thing for us. I actually don't like solar flux spikes. I understand they might cause disturbances in the strat, but....I think there might be a loose correlation to forecasted cold shots which never materialize. I tend to roll with this for temps in E TN. Dec - AN Jan - AN Feb - Normal Snow for NE TN only! Dec - BN Jan - Normal Feb - Normal My gut says this winter may be colder than most are projecting, even me. The CANSIPS has been sneaky good for a decade at the seasonal level. It is stubborn w/ a full winter ridge over Alaska. Euro seasonal are not enthused. That said, the CANSIPS are still at a range where they can change maybe one more time bigly. I think this winter may well be defined by 1-2 big storms to track. They may or may not result in anything. But w/ the STJ ripping and if the CANSIPS is even right for 2-3 weeks for the winter, there should be options for winter. Of note, strong or super Ninos generally are hot garbage over NE TN. My thoughts are that we are in a -NAO cycle, and that bails us out. The gradient in the Pacific matters quite a bit to grab an idea from typhoon tip. If the gradient is strong, we get typical Nino responses. If it is not strong, I suspect warmth dominates. Bastardi mentioned that today, but that is a staple of most seasonal forecasts to be fair. Without the solar flux spikes, we might steal some cold. PDO is a wildcard.

For at least second time this summer, our popcorn storms are coming from the Northeast. @Windspeedcalled it. Mowing sucks right now. It is almost impossible to find a time when the grass isn't wet. I am so attuned to La Nina summer endgames, I just about forgot what it looks like not to see everything fried and crisp at this time of year. That "should" prevent extended summer, but probably delay the start of winter. I will say that I have seen some false starts to winter with El Nino...only to hit a "meh" pattern for a good portion of December. Just flip everything from the last winter. I was telling @tnweathernutthat what interests me is whether we can get a base-active STJ(prob base warm-ish temps) to slam into a cold air mass which finds its way southwestward. It will likely be tougher to get those cold air masses into the SE, but if we do...look out. This looks like a very active pattern, and I expect that to continue through the first half of winter w/ obvious ebbs and flows. This is one of those winters where we probably have plenty of precip but less cold. Maybe some big hitters buried in a base meh pattern.

We need the PDO to go positive IMHO. Bastardi looked at it recently, and mentioned 23-24 as a year that occurred (Nino and -PDO). It tried to go cold but the cold ended up along the spine and front range of the Rockies. There was no mechanism to get the cold into the East for long periods of time. The needed QBO cycle(for cold, snowy) is what is counterintuitive given the solar state(dropping flux at the back en of this cycle?) and ENSO combo. Now, the PDO has moved towards neutral this year. That index really likes to double dip, but this has been a severely negative episode for several years, and I wonder if it flips positive for a bit. However, it could briefly go positive or neutral and then back negative.

Great question. One of the guys at WxBell maybe had an article about that. The best winter scenario might be opposite of what I think is normally best. I hate to guess. Let me go look. But the correlation w/ a strong Nino and PDO is tricky.

Definitely shredded it. It got its act together again around I-81…just west of the winter twilight zone where snow bands reform on NW flow.

I will take an order of disrupted PV during El Nino and split flow please! LOL. Please hold on the "extended summer."

The 90s used to be "not that long ago." And just like that, it is almost 30 years ago. To put that in perspective, the same time span remembrance in 97 would have been like trying to remember 1967! Crap.

Every time I had to unjam the bagger tube on the mower today, I literally thought about your last sentence! Haha! I suppose it is better than the "cloud of dust" La Nina pattern that my yard has experienced for what seems like the last decade. It is crazy how green everything is in NE TN. It is almost like Mother Nature forgot spring, and we are are going back and making up the course work right now. retroactive spring

This is about the time of year that I start looking for the first fall air mass on ext LR modeling. Nothing is clear right now. All eyes are on Alaska. If we can stick a ridge in Alaska during late August, that will be something we haven't done in long time, especially at that time of year for any length at all.

One thing which is nice about this in NE TN(not relief for everyone as has been shared), the drought is getting busted up here. We aren’t there yet, but much better off than during spring and winter.

As Jeff noted, that stalled frontal boundary has reared its ugly head this AM. Bean Station is seeing a lot of heavy rain.

Or winter is just gonna be that warm! LOL. But yeah, i need some seriously lower humidity, Jeff. I am soaked every morning after my run. Just looks like someone took a 5 gallon bucket, and poured over my head. Same deal after mowing. Tags are now spring and summer - you all have high standards for thread tags! If it was Montana, I might leave snow. They started the month out w/ winter storm warnings in SW Montana! Fortunately, the west is getting some much needed monsoonal rains in a few areas. I saw that Mammoth had rain this past week. Not unheard of, but it was plentiful. Portions of MT had flood warnings last week which is kind of nuts out there during the summer. Storms kind of fizzled out in NE TN this evening - so far. I don't mind that. Storms IMBY seem to find a way to get pretty bad on NW flow t-storms during July.....just not NW flow snow during January. But yo....send me some crisp air masses. Central Florida can keep this humidity. It's theirs, and they can have it back!

That line incoming over middle Tenn looks nasty.

If you all are ok with it, I am going to double-up this thread as both spring and summer....since we are already halfway through summer! If you want another thread, let me know. I have already changed the title to Spring/Summer, but I can change it back to spring if needed. All eyes on the line of storms approaching the forum tonight and tomorrow AM.

Batten down the hatches in TRI tomorrow night and Weds AM along with SE KY, SW VA, and the Plateau. MRX has been on top of it today. Severe threat is real. Slight risk of tornadoes with possible strong, straight line winds. 70mph gusts are being mentioned. I do not want to lose power in this heat. Right now it is 80 degrees at TRI at 10:00PM. Heavy rain is also possible. Could extend into the Central Valley.

The "worst" of summer was partially in April! We had all of those highs in the mid and upper 80s. Since then, we have returned to VERY HIGH humidities to accompany relatively normal summer temps. When I go running in the mornings, it is like someone dumped a bucket of water over me by the time I am done. Still working on my winter ideas. This winter is a lean warm, but truly a crap shoot. I tend to think we start slow w/ kind of a meh December with gradually increasing chances. Late Jan to mid Feb seems like the sweet spot regardless of ENSO. I see no real change to that this winter. Somebody from the Plateau eastward could get hammered by an Apps runner or coastal this winter. As for fall, that season just seems hot lately. I do think Nino should temper the excessive heat and maybe bring normal fall temps by late September. Sometimes Nino winters kind of have a false start during October. The heat out West seems to suggest the Nino pattern has begun. Might be a good year for NE ski resorts?

Kind of rainy, cool, very humid day here at TRI. We used to get these a lot. Nice to see them every once in a while. Heavy rains have fallen in the foothills near Greeneville as others have noted.

Rain and humidity. Sure seems like the Nino pattern is starting to show its hand.

Euro seasonals(July version) sure have that flavor.

Thanks for the posts, and great info. Agree on all points. I think I had just moved back to TN from FL(spent two years in purgatory) in 82-83. We had this crazy snow where we got like 4-5" of snow and then it rained...and washed it all away. Seems like the start to that winter was crazy cold. I remember riding through South Knoxville w/ the windows frozen up.

Back from Europe. And, yes! I got to experience THE heat wave. No A/C sucks. Great trip, though. We were in Scandanavia...and still almost hit 99 w/ normal highs of 65! Back to normal for the second half of the trip, and legit felt cold at times. Got back home, and hit another heat wave! Haha - not so much fun. Great trip, the Danish and Swedish people are incredibly respectful, and we are thankful for them sharing their country with us. Great areas, and much less crowded than other places in Europe. Really want to do Iceland. Anyway, I like John's analogs. 47-48' in my post above is a Euro heat wave analog. The summers of 47' and 75' were both record setters in Copenhagen. I am gonna ride those analogs I think. I will probably blend those with John's, and I think we have a pretty good set of analogs. Now, the July 1 CANSIPS......is a beauty yet again. BIG ridge out West for DJFM. Nice cold source. Seems a bit too good to be true, but it's a banger.

Somebody tell me about the winters of 47-48 and 75-76.

I think that is true for this winter…not the last two. Those were pretty strong analog years. But analogs for sure do not decide what comes next. We can agree on that. However, long wave pattern recognition during some weather cycles is not overly difficult. In fact, it might more accurate than d10-15 forecasts. I mean warm with a moderate to strong ENSO cycle. That might be different in middle and west TN. E TN often just watches storm tracks with this va cold front watching. For the past two winters, I felt pretty good about seasonal ideas. This one is tricky. But when in doubt, I go with ENSO. That says AN temps for DJF but with MJO cycles into colder phases at times. Storm track is coastal plain at times.