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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    I may have to break down and look at Google AI. FTR, it is freaking cold outside. Roads here this morning were a solid sheet of ice w/ about a 1/2" of new snow overnight. You could barely stand up on some streets - yes, I went running in this mess(if you can call it running when on ice). Snow flurries are rolling through currently. We put covers on outdoors spigots yesterday evening. I think this type of light snow shower activity may continue on and off throughout the cold snap....14-15' type of stuff but lighter.
  2. Carvers Gap
    So Storm Vista has the Google AI model w/ the hobby plan?
  3. Carvers Gap
    Do we dare wish for and earlier phase? I see Baja energy…
  4. Carvers Gap
    Did that phase? Sure like a partial phase. Not sure there is much room to jog northwest, but the pieces are there for a storm. That strong are of BN heights can sometimes (often times?) trigger snow along the front. If it grabs a piece of STJ energy - good things.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Kind of wonky synoptics, but as @tnweathernutmentioned…we may be exiting the window where models lose stuff. Seems like the GFS has something similar. If I had to guess…that area of very BN heights is causing the disturbance. 85 had similar occurrences where very cold air masses spawned snow storms.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Thank you. All is good!
  7. Carvers Gap
    If you just need to live vicariously....The Broncos vs Patriots game has gone from sunshine to near blizzard conditions. The cold is here for a bit!
  8. Carvers Gap
    But declaring a winter a dud on Jan 25 is JI worthy, especially with a winter storm in progress. LOL.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, man. I agree. While 2/3 of the forum is currently under a winter storm warning...not the time to be calling winter a dud. Just ride the wave.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Winter isn't over.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Thursday and the weekend have to be watched.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GFS is one small system after another…lots of NW flow. Prob favors NW flow areas, but I would assume there are some chances as Feb climatology will fight the dry pattern IMHO.
  13. Carvers Gap
    It is possible, but unlikely in February IMHO. I mean, we are in the middle of an ice storm right now w/ rain in the East. I suspect we see several, small northern stream systems. No model is gonna have details correct outside of 7 days...just generally a 500 pattern. Cosgrove things another storm in the south next weekend is possible. He says the cold and stormy pattern continues. He is batting a thousand right now. This current storm moved the precip line almost 500 miles in three model runs.
  14. Carvers Gap
    West of I-81 in TRI...we need temps to get above freezing ASAP. Lots of ice building up w/ a steady train of more precip inbound.
  15. Carvers Gap
    0.1-0.15 ice accretion so far. Trees are glistening and well as the power lines.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The 12z ensembles(EPS, GEPS) and 18z ensembles(AIFS-EPS, GEFS) all have a trough over the east for most of their runs with maybe a 2-3 respite. The Euro Weeklies continue that pattern well into February and maybe even early March. The MJO-CPC is basically stalled in cold phases through mid-Feb when those runs end. It looks likely that our cold and wintry pattern continues for a time - no guarantees. IF that verifies, we all may be ready for spring when it finally arrives.
  17. Carvers Gap
    ZR w/ glaze on pretty much everything.
  18. Carvers Gap
    We have picked up .75-1" of snow IMBY. That is already at or well ahead of what any model(not named the GFS) consistently showed. Right now our winds are out of the NE at 7mp which is exactly where they should be coming from w/ that high over the top. The cold is getting reinforced at lower levels. CAD on this side of the mountain for all intents and purposes. I feel certain it gets scoured out...but some areas may fight that changeover longer than others.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Meaning cooler?
  20. Carvers Gap
    Moderate snow in Kingsport. Ground is white.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Incredible. 8 degrees below guidance now?
  22. Carvers Gap
    What I looked at has generally been two waves. The GFS has a constant stream of moisture on a few of its runs. Most other models...There is the lead out wave, and then whatever forms in Texas.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I didn't notice that...Thanks. I assumed the time stamps was still 12z when I switched from the other 12z models.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Whichever model had the snow line furthest south...wins the first few hours. Light snow IMBY w/ some intensity to go with it. Dusting.
  25. Carvers Gap
    12z....I like Thursday for a light snow event w/ the incoming front then. The 0z GEM-para, which has been good, has it as does the 12z Euro.
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