Carvers Gap

I broke down and looked at the MJO. Turns out, it is forecast to park itself in 8-1-2-3 through at least late January. It is in 6 right now - major winter storm in phase 6. File that one away for safe keeping. The Euro weeklies have a trough in eastern NA for Feb. Monster NAO block. EPO ridge....for most of February. Temps 7-9 degrees BN or Feb. Precip is listed as BN - good luck with that during Feb. If that verifies, that is a much different February than we have been used to of late. It fits w/ the weak La Nina and negative QBO analogs. Can we go 14-15...IDK? But 95-96 2.00-light would suffice.

Of note above from MRX regarding NE TN...Carter and Unicoi counties have been added to the WSW.

@fountainguy97 National Weather Service Morristown TN 816 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 813 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 - Tonight will remain dry with seasonally cool temperatures. - A significant winter storm will impact the region, primarily Saturday PM through Saturday night. All types of precipitation (rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow) are expected. - The heaviest snow and sleet accumulations (around 3 inches or locally higher) are most likely along the Tennessee/Kentucky state line and into southwest Virginia. The heaviest ice accumulations (over 0.25 inches) are most likely along the Cumberland Plateau/southern plateau, central and northeast East Tennessee, and just north of Interstate 40/81. Snow accumulations will be more limited further south with ice accumulations more uncertain along the foothills and southern Valley. - High winds expected across the foothills of the mountains and ridge tops on Saturday night into Sunday. - Extreme cold temperatures are expected Monday into Tuesday with highs well below freezing and overnight lows approaching or falling below 0. Lower wind chills are expected. && .UPDATE... Issued at 813 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 Based on the latest model data and recent trends, Unicoi, Carter, and Johnson Counties have been added into the Winter Storm Warning. The better snow accumulations, nearing 2 inches or more, look to be in Johnson County. All counties look to see ice accumulations at or above 0.25 inches in some portion of them. This is less confident in places like Elizabethton and Hampton due to local downsloping effects, but other portions of Carter County are expected to see more significant ice accumulations. This also better matches up with places to our south and east.

100%. We had one pipe bust in ours years back in our current home due to a cold snap. Our drain from our AC also busted - which reminds me! We keep a heated coil on it nowadays. I remember during 1985 sitting under our house trying to fix a split copper pipe(inserting a new section) and trying to sweat that pipe. At -22F, everything refreezes instantly. It kept blowing out the joint when we tried to put things back together. We finally had to go get cardboard and put it on the ground in order to withstand the cold. Also that winter, my dad and I put a starter in a 1972 Impala in the K-Mart parking lot here in Kingsport. Those two days were the coldest of my life. Great memories, but so cold.

Feels like -20. Nope. Haha.

And ya'll. I can tell you after Helene...you don't want to be without power. No hot water. No wifi. No way to easily charge phones without a generator. And internet w/ your cell provider is iffy as everyone else is on it as well. During the fall...no AC is not pleasant either. I can't imagine doing that with below zero temps. We have alternate power and heating sources, but whew - it's work without power. During Helene, we had boil water advisories to boot - sucked!!!! At night, candles are great but flashlights are better. I went out and bought a bunch of candles and extra lights after Helene. Generators are incredibly valuable. I wish I had solar chargers for phones.

No power would kind of put a dent in tracking future winter storms. Give me some light snow Thursday w/ that front.

In sports, they say if you "turn the corner" enough...you might end up right where you started.

I didn't realize you were that far north in Illinois. Sorry I didn't realize... I just looked it up, and probably should have known that since you post here some. I know now! Yeah, that is cold! For some reason I thought you were in central Illinois. It makes sense now why you were mentioning bare ground during December.

My point and click for Tuesday morning is 0 with gusts to 20mph.

TRI is at +2.2 for the month. Unless something changes, we should easily finish BN or January. After Sunday, my point and click temps don't go above freezing until Friday when he forecast ends.

Awesome! We now have TWO hot threads. Best subforum on AmWx, but I am biased. I do like our SE folks though! @beavis1729, what is your forecast in Illinois?

Yeah, man. Something has to give there. I do like snow for Thursday though. Maybe we can get some thunder on Sunday! Funny...not funny.

Yes. I miss the days of the days of the dependable northwest jog. Now, we gotta listen to BamWx calling in our system from Columbus. Good call by him, but doesn't mean I have to like it. Haha.

Probably need it down there for now. Remember the days when we used to trend a storm from South Carolina into E TN. The SE forum guys didn't like us so much when that happened.

Did it squash that at 183?

With the 18z gfs bringing in bitterly cold air at 138...it has light, almost certainly high ratio snow with it. I have to think we score with that front.

@Matthew70refused to concede that winter was over during the December chinook. Looks like he paid his bill. This is a nice receipt!!! 45/50 states have winter weather products issued. 24 states have winter storm warnings issued for the same storm while 8 states have ice storm warnings for that same system.

It is a great model. The 3k NAM is giving it a run for resolution IMBY. I like the HRRR and RAP, but they move around a lot during the storm as I think that have radar data included. As Holston noted...if it is adjusting the start point in Arkansas southward....I am somewhat interested in that.

Again, we really need to watch trends to our West. We have lost storms at this range in the past...and usually we see it immediately when everything verifies northward. If modeling is shifting south (to our west), we need to watch that closely. The RGEM trend southward(past several runs) is noteworthy.

The RGEM is usually money. The GEM is biased cold. The RGEM is usually a strong model for this area, and my favorite. 3k NAM is a close second.

As @Holston_River_Ramblernoted, you have to watch the first part of the storm. If everything is colder and south, that tells us something. We need to start watching numbers for verification purposes. The 18z RFSS has ice to the Ohio River. The 18z 3k NAM(which has been good for E TN forecast purposes) has the ice several counties south of the Ohio River. BIG differences in short range models. The interesting thing is how much precip gets out in front of this? Do we get a lot of virga or does this go from the jump? Houston, what were your ideas on the southward verification?

The HRRR looks like it is over-doing the downslope, but I never, ever discount that model. If one model can see downslope, it is that one. The 3k NAM basically got rid of the downslope - not sure if it is a hiccup or if the mountain wave was less. The HRRR is basically showing that NE TN is going to takes its time getting precip in here. As you know, not uncommon. The 12z Euro, 18z NAM(southward jog), 12z GFS, 12z RGEM....take some time to get precip, but then they just overwhelm the dry air, and send it. Ice is so difficult to forecast in the Tennessee Valley. I have seen cold get trapped and never leave until the event is over. I have seen it scoured immediately. My experience says this cold air erodes pretty quickly. But........this hp setup is different than most other events. It is strong. If I was just looking at a map and scientifically had to make a call...I would say that big high is gonna pour cold air down the west slopes of the Apps and hold onto frozen precip just a bit longer.

Send it, man. Bring on the 1050hp...or 1040...or 1030...or 1028....or just send a slp right up the Valley instead.

FWIW...I think the 3K NAM has this nailed.