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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    But I want my bonus flakes to stick. LOL! Admittedly, my standards are too high given where I live - both latitude and living next to one of the world's largest chemical plants, a large defense plant which makes "stuff" which shakes the ground on Fridays, and a big paper plant. Yes, for non TRI folks...that would be three industrial plants in addition to a natural rain shadow. We call this the EB. The pain is real! In reality, east of I81 has been bullseye so I consider any snow above 2-3" a bonus. That RAP map does not give me confidence.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Light to light-moderate(is that even a term?) snow IMBY...snow is finally starting to stick to the tops of my bushes.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Yes. Point and clicks have been apparently(and significantly) downgraded west of the I40 corridor.
  4. Carvers Gap
    If I can get 2-3" out of this overnight, I will call it a day.
  5. Carvers Gap
    My point and click was dropped(max) from 7 to 3. I think the fact none of this is sticking in the valleys has them rightfully spooked. The sun is eating into totals big time IMBY.
  6. Carvers Gap
    We've easily burned through at least an inch of accumulation just with melting. When I look at accumulation maps, I am thinking...well subtract one from that number already. Not a single flake is sticking. I am surprised, but interested to see what happens when the sun angle and temp drops. It isn't even remotely as cold as I thought it would be - we are above freezing. Rates are probably 10:1 if it was sticking. Right now it is 0:1. LOL. I have seen some snowstorms start like this, and then quickly ramp up. I have also seen busts start like this....IDK
  7. Carvers Gap
    His Reelfoot Lake post about 5-10 minutes before the tornado hit there was pretty epic. He basically told everyone to tell anyone(they knew) on that lake to get off it immediately. He was very adamant, and very right.
  8. Carvers Gap
    The sun did the work today. This isn't going to stick until the sun angle goes down and the temp drops. Temps are above predictions IMBY. It is snowing, but not even thinking about sticking on anything....not metal surfaces, not mulch, not raised surfaces. Definitely not rooftops or roads. Rates should eventually overcome that, but I am surprised that the cold temps didn't allow for this to immediately stick. I am not gonna complain about the sun, because we would kind of be screwed without it. LOL. With two days of below freezing temps...rates still do matter.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Kind of surprising to see decent snow, and it not accumulating on grassy nor raised surfaces. The sun is still kind of poking through. I thought things would immediately be covered due to the very cold temps. Nope. It may stick later, but it is not right now. Knoxville folks, you are not really missing out...and I am under a decent band. It is similar to March snows where it snows all day and doesn't accumulate. Need more rates or lower sun angle.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Light to moderate snow IMBY. It is very fine and not sticking yet. Sun was out and then it was not. It started snowing immediately after that.
  11. Carvers Gap
    I was sitting here w/ the sun shining through the clouds, and noticed the sun disappear....started snowing almost immediately after. I have seen that happen only a few times...once out West.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Next weekend still looks like a pretty significant upslope event as yet another in a series of strong cold fronts impacts the region.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS is just one system after another, beginning on Weds.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I am seeing reports that roads are turning white in Lebanon, Virginia.
  15. Carvers Gap
    I wouldn't completely rule out something even Weds or Thurs...one scenario is a slider w/ mostly rain. Another is a similar setup, but it backs the flow as the front passes. Might be room for a slp or weak wave to ride that front.
  16. Carvers Gap
    We gonna run this back again next Saturday as well....0z GFS and Euro have a pronounced upslope event advertised???
  17. Carvers Gap
    I was thinking maybe around 2:00PM for TRI and also a friend of mine noted this as well. I would think Knoxville is a hair later than that - I hope so, because I have one commuting!!!!
  18. Carvers Gap
    I would be really surprised if you don't do halfway decent w/ this...good elevation and just the Plateau's ability to squeeze every, last drop from the atmosphere.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Pretty steady model runs by the RGEM. The 12z RGEM barely budged.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Probably just the 3k NAM and its elevation issues...but the 3k put 40+" in the Smokies. That is Sierra Nevada level stuff.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The 0z RGEM is a decently marked increase. Shift west with short range models at 0z.
  22. Carvers Gap
    With that 10:1...could have bigger amounts?
  23. Carvers Gap
    Throw in some Eastman Bubble for good measure....
  24. Carvers Gap
    I am ready for some bouncy corn.
  25. Carvers Gap
    If it can get to Roan Mountain State Park…I may drive.
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