Carvers Gap
-
Posts
17,168 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Carvers Gap
-
It is a great model. The 3k NAM is giving it a run for resolution IMBY. I like the HRRR and RAP, but they move around a lot during the storm as I think that have radar data included. As Holston noted...if it is adjusting the start point in Arkansas southward....I am somewhat interested in that.
-
Again, we really need to watch trends to our West. We have lost storms at this range in the past...and usually we see it immediately when everything verifies northward. If modeling is shifting south (to our west), we need to watch that closely. The RGEM trend southward(past several runs) is noteworthy.
-
The RGEM is usually money. The GEM is biased cold. The RGEM is usually a strong model for this area, and my favorite. 3k NAM is a close second.
-
As @Holston_River_Ramblernoted, you have to watch the first part of the storm. If everything is colder and south, that tells us something. We need to start watching numbers for verification purposes. The 18z RFSS has ice to the Ohio River. The 18z 3k NAM(which has been good for E TN forecast purposes) has the ice several counties south of the Ohio River. BIG differences in short range models. The interesting thing is how much precip gets out in front of this? Do we get a lot of virga or does this go from the jump? Houston, what were your ideas on the southward verification?
-
The HRRR looks like it is over-doing the downslope, but I never, ever discount that model. If one model can see downslope, it is that one. The 3k NAM basically got rid of the downslope - not sure if it is a hiccup or if the mountain wave was less. The HRRR is basically showing that NE TN is going to takes its time getting precip in here. As you know, not uncommon. The 12z Euro, 18z NAM(southward jog), 12z GFS, 12z RGEM....take some time to get precip, but then they just overwhelm the dry air, and send it. Ice is so difficult to forecast in the Tennessee Valley. I have seen cold get trapped and never leave until the event is over. I have seen it scoured immediately. My experience says this cold air erodes pretty quickly. But........this hp setup is different than most other events. It is strong. If I was just looking at a map and scientifically had to make a call...I would say that big high is gonna pour cold air down the west slopes of the Apps and hold onto frozen precip just a bit longer.
-
Send it, man. Bring on the 1050hp...or 1040...or 1030...or 1028....or just send a slp right up the Valley instead.
-
FWIW...I think the 3K NAM has this nailed.
-
The 12z gfs is trying to make me feel like I live in the Sierra Nevada. 49" for TRI on that run? AIFS less but still noteworthy.
-
It has been my experience with these things that it may well depend on which roads get a lot of sun and which don't regarding roads. I know they started pre-treating yesterday here. Our road crew guys have somebody who is good with weather. They didn't wait for the warning packages.
-
Are precip totals going up on the short range models at 12z - both NAMs and RGEM?
-
TRI gets hammered by the 12k NAM. There are considerable differences between the 12k and 3k regarding Chattanooga and TRI. I simply refer to you all who live in those places to know your microclimates. @nrgjeff- maybe he will stop in this afternoon. No doubt he is busy!
-
The 12z NAM put 1.88" of ice over Chattanooga. No idea if that is right, but man.
-
I pretty much knew when the 12z 3k NAM just rolled....it didn't leave them with a lot of wiggle room.
-
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 TNZ041-043-045-047-072-074-087-240600- /O.NEW.KMRX.HW.W.0001.260125T0000Z-260126T0000Z/ Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-Southeast Carter- Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Monroe- Including the cities of Limestone Cove, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Hampton, Hartford, Elkmont, Cades Cove, Citico, Coker Creek, Gatlinburg, and Unicoi 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...Blount Smoky Mountains, Cocke Smoky Mountains, Sevier Smoky Mountains, Southeast Carter, Southeast Greene, Southeast Monroe, and Unicoi Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Locally higher wind gusts up to 80 mph are expected across the highest elevations of the foothills such as Cove Mountain.
-
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 TNZ018-040>047-071>074-086-087-101-102-240615- /O.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0001.260124T1200Z-260126T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0002.260124T1800Z-260126T0000Z/ Johnson-Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene- Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier- Sevier Smoky Mountains-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-West Polk-East Polk- Including the cities of Sevierville, Johnson City, Greeneville, Erwin, Hampton, Newport, Alcoa, Pigeon Forge, Citico, McMahan, Ducktown, Seymour, Cedar Creek, Parksville, Big Frog Mountain, Bybee, Neva, Cades Cove, Laurel Bloomery, Shady Valley, Reliance, Conasauga, Sweetwater, Harrisburg, Archville, Elizabethton, Bullet Creek, Hartford, Kodak, Madisonville, Happy Valley, Unicoi, Benton, Limestone Cove, Trade, Mountain City, Maryville, Doeville, Elkmont, Coker Creek, Turtletown, and Gatlinburg 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations around one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch with locally higher ice totals. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...A portion of East Tennessee. * WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the ice. Travel will be hazardous. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.
-
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 TNZ012>017-035-037>039-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-240615- /O.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0001.260124T1200Z-260126T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMRX.WS.W.0002.260124T1800Z-260126T0000Z/ Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Morgan-Union- Grainger-Hamblen-Lee-Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA- Including the cities of Harrogate-Shawanee, Bristol TN, Paulette, Coeburn, Pardee, Honaker, Wise, Howard Quarter, White Oak, South Holston Dam, Treadway, Petros, Norris Lake, Oneida, Appalachia, Smokey Junction, Lebanon, Castlewood, Kingsport, Pine Orchard, Rosedale, Norma, Jellico, Alpha, Lone Mountain, Morristown, Luttrell, Evanston, Huntsville, Benhams, Springdale, Kyles Ford, Maynardville, Dye, Bristol VA, Bean Station, Abingdon, Caryville, Elgin, Hiltons, Big Stone Gap, Big South Fork National, Clairfield, Rose Hill, Norton, Mooresburg, La Follette, Slick Rock, High Point, Sharps Chapel, Sneedville, Russellville, Hansonville, Sandlick, Royal Blue, Fincastle, Arthur, and Elk Valley 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between a trace and 3 inches and ice accumulations between one tenth and four tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of East Tennessee and southwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
-
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 NCZ060-061-TNZ036-067>070-081>085-098>100-240615- /O.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0001.260124T1200Z-260126T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMRX.IS.W.0001.260124T1800Z-260126T0000Z/ Cherokee-Clay-Anderson-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Sequatchie- Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley- Including the cities of Lone Oak, Jefferson City, Grandview, White Pine, Oak Ridge, Rockwood, Fairview, Dayton, Old Washington, Lookout Mountain, Martin Springs, Bearden, Unaka, Knoxville, Loudon, Powells Crossroads, Athens, Chestnut Hill, Hiawasse Dam, Hayesville, Dentville, Harriman, Whitwell, Cartwright, Etowah, Marble, Jasper, Shooting Creek, Lake Forest, Bradbury, Monteagle, Clear Water, Andrews, Clinton, Eagle Furnace, Pikeville, Brasstown, Spring City, Signal Mountain, Murphy, Chattanooga, Dunlap, Palio, Strawberry Plains, Mount Crest, Topton, Brayton, Cleveland, Lenoir City, Kingston, South Pittsburg, Melvine, Evensville, Tasso, Dandridge, Cagle, Haletown (Guild), Violet, Big Spring, Tusquitee, Old Cumberland, and Oliver Springs 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 /854 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SUNDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of one quarter to one half of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of southwest North Carolina and East Tennessee. * WHEN...From 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Saturday to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Sunday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Any higher ridge tops within the warning area, along with portions of the southern Cumberland Plateau, Lookout Mountain, Signal Mountain, and Mowbray Mountain will have gusty winds in addition to the ice accumulation which will increase the risk of tree damage and power outages for these locations. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power outages. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
-
I love this quote, "Luck cannot be part of your safety protocol." Modeling overnight looks relatively consistent to yesterday. The 6z GFS has zero support so far. Story continues to look like ice in the northern valley.
-
Anyone know when we can start to see if reports on the ground match what modeling has....might helps us to know which model is initializing better and is more accurate?
-
Kind of impressive to see how much colder the ICON is through 38....3-5 degrees over E TN. Fits the trend of models correcting colder as the event gets closer.
-
Both 0z ICON and NAM are colder than their previous run through roughly 27....2-5 degrees depending on local.
-
Out to 27...2-3 degrees colder over E TN than its run at 18z.
-
Globals are not warm for next Thursday. I agree w/ @tnweathernut and others that this is a time to watch. It is very rare to get that type of cold without precip on the front edge of that type of front. It happens, but about 90% of the time there is high ratio stuff when this rolls in. Real feels. Again, with some snow under that...some locals may make a run at record lows which I thought were pretty safe. The GEM is the "warm model." Now let that sink in.
-
I am expecting ice. Anything else is bonus! But right....the GFS is gonna need some company. It is just a conspiracy to make us all stay up late again? About one mile into my run each of the last two days, I am asking myself why I am so tired.
-
Yeppers. Yeppers. @Met1985said the GFS did ok w/ a recent snow event in W NC that the Euro didn't even have I don't think. I think the Euro has better physics, and I will need it on board. But...there have been trends southward today. Also, models are cooling off the earlier part of the run....tells me there is still some adjusting occurring. Eventually, that adjusting gets here. Maybe it is hurricane hunter data. Might be a one off run. But other models are only about 50-100 miles of going east of the Apps at times.
