Carvers Gap

Yeah, I think that run is off its rocker. There has been a trend over the past couple of deterministic suites to de-amplify d10-15, but ensembles are not biting yet. The 12z GEM is very cold. I do think the GFS is pretty good inside of d5. It has been wack-a-mole after that. A quick glance of the MJO has it heading into phase 8 between Jan26-30th depending on your model of choice. I would expect the eastern trough to go gangbusters around that time and into early Feb. Again, huge grains of salt. The MJO has not been well correlated to eastern NA weather so far this winter IMHO.

It is entirely possible that the Sunday system is just getting sampled better. But...I bet the Euro is the likely solution. The GFS has been on steroids this winter for some reason at times. Let's see where this Euro run goes...I am gonna bet it is west of its 6z run but not by a lot. If that storm actually cranks, it is gonna be frigid here.

The 12z GFS is a wild run...completely different than 6z. Flips the 500 pattern over Alaska after d7. The GEM is steadier. This may have to get settled by the ensembles. @Holston_River_RamblerI was surprised to see some solutions over E TN on the GEFS.

I really like the 20th for a northern stream system for some reason. Nice, deep trough and maybe the coldest air of the season so far.

The 12z GEM at 171 looks impressive at 500 in regards to cold air delivery.

I strongly suspect this is an EC storm. Unfortunately for all of us...may be just too far to the east. We keep getting a dang low in the Lakes. Haha.

The 12z GEM is OTS w/ barely a skiff in NC. We need to dig through that GFS run, and see if it is doing something weird. That said, the 6z Euro has the GFS solution, but it is east of the 12z GFS track.

Yes. Jog west, calibrate east, jog slightly west again. That is normally what I observe. I don't know how much room this has to come west since it is so late. There is not a lot of room. I think really our best chance is that modeling is under estimating the storm, and it gets deeper w/ each run. If it is a legit Nor'Easter, it may not have it deep enough yet. For now, looks like a Carolina special...but that could change.

The ever lovin' truth w/ the GFS.

The 12z ICON has this but is well east. The GFS is gonna have to have some more support, but it is well within range to score the coup.

I think we need it stronger.

I think this is likely a legit system for the NE at the very least. Remember, golf and I were discussing this several pages ago. The 500 trough looked ripe. Bigbald, for the GFS...yes. I think the NW jog occurs as modeling strengthens the storm sometimes as it gets closer. In other words, it underestimates the storm, tightens it up, and it pulls NW over several runs. The GFS has came well west during the past 24 hours. We are about to run out of runway though before this locks in. But w/ this being a "surprise" feature(Euro had that weird run a couple of days ago with this...might it have been right?) the track may not be locked quite yet.

Remember how we talked about the engine and caboose? When modeling can't decide between the two, it tries to split the difference. Most of the time, you will see these late trends if it finally "decides" to go w/ the caboose or second system. Yeah, Reb. Give me one more jog!!!!!

Paging @nrgjeff! The 12z GFS.....you gotta like that, right?

So what is the difference between the GFS and GEM at that time frame? Did the GFS hold something back? The GEM looks remarkably like the GFS solutions from a few days ago...tropical system and all.

No kidding. Nice look.

Re: Weds…18z GFS w a lee side low again on this run. Slight uptick in intensity for E TN folks and Plateau.

Euro Weeklies Control: The overall Weeklies pattern is BN precip over the SE. That isn't always a bad thing as snowy regions won't usually show up as AN for precip...but precip probably is going to be an issue at times. Here is a fun little map. This is a 30 day map from the control run of the Euro Weeklies. Benchmark storm signal present on a 30 day map. Please be sure to temper expectations....we know how modeling has been this winter - not exactly reliable. But I do like the Euro a little bit in the middle of winter while wavelengths are longer(are they really longer right now?!). If the STJ finds some juice???

The Euro Weeklies turned sharply colder this afternoon. That makes sense given how cold the 0z run was(and 12z supported it). The 30 day mean 500 pattern is a trough over the eastern US. There will be a few warmups embedded as the trough tries to stick into the West, but the cold centered in the Canadian Plains and tundra is going to want to run this show - Nunavut, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec. The BN 500 heights are going to almost force a trough in the East as long as its there. The SER will surge NE at times, and then should get beaten back down. The block over the top should continue to allow for the EPO to hold in place. The Weeklies hold this pattern for nearly the entire 46day run(with variations and ebbs and flows) which likely is not accurate, but if it was.........cold period incoming. Somewhere Larry Cosgrove has to be smiling - big tip of the hat if he pulls this off.

Hot donuts sign is on.....

MRX disco from this afternoon... National Weather Service Morristown TN 1240 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1233 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026 - Significant Accumulating snow is likely across the higher elevations, with lighter accumulations (dusting to 1/2 inch) for the Plateau and valley from late Wednesday afternoon/evening through Thursday morning. - Additional snow showers will be possible this weekend, especially over the higher elevations. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1233 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026 The main concern for the next several days is the potential for snowfall Wednesday into Thursday. Thus the discussion will largely focus on the potential of snow during that time-frame. For Tonight, surface ridging will give way to increasing bounday layer southwest winds. Sky will be mostly clear in the evening with increasing clouds toward sunrise. Overall, another good radiational cooling night and have lowered mins below NBM guidance. For Wednesday through Thursday, a deepening upper trough across the eastern United States will produce widespread precipitation. For Wednesday, a strong 300mb jet of 120-130 knots over the eastern Ohio valley will place the area under the favored right entrance region. This jet structure will enhance a frontal boundary moving across the area during the afternoon and evening. Strong fronto-genetic forcing is noted around 00Z tightening the thermal gradient along this boundary. Initially widespread rain band will spread across the region associated with the baroclinic band. Vertical temperature profile quickly cools off due to the forcing with the snow level dropping quickly. The higher elevations will see snow by 3 to 4 pm, then snow levels dropping. The dendritic growth zone will be favorable around 00Z then moisture levels become more shallow. REFS shows 60-70 percent probabilities of 4 inch or more across the highest elevations but most of the higher terrain will see 2 to 4 inches across the far east Tennessee mountains with 1 to 3 inches across southwest Virginia mountains. We have issued a winter weather advisory for these areas from 3 pm Wednesday through 11 am Thursday. REFS does show 30 to 50 probabilities of dusting to 1/2 inch (possibly 1 inch higher ridges) across the Plateau and lower elevations of southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Plan on issuing a SPS to message this possibility. Due to orographic lift and cold air squeezing out left over moisture have continued chance of shower showers (high elevations) and flurries for the lower terrain through much of Thursday morning. For Thursday night and Friday, upper trough has moved east of the area with another system moving across the Great Lakes and Ohio valley. The forcing with this system looks to stay north of the area. Milder temperatures and dry conditions expected. with surface ridging. Another deep upper trough digs into the Ohio valley for Friday night and Saturday. A series of short-waves will move across the region producing occasional mixture of rain and snow. Ensemble clusters show varying solutions with this system thus the confidence is low. &&

Special Wx Statement from MRX... Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Morristown TN 154 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026 TNZ012>017-035>040-042-044-046-069>071-073-VAZ001-005-008-140900- Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Morgan- Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene- Washington TN-Northwest Carter-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount- North Sevier-Lee-Scott VA-Washington VA- Including the cities of Big South Fork National, Oneida, Smokey Junction, Elgin, Huntsville, Norma, Slick Rock, Fincastle, La Follette, Elk Valley, Jellico, White Oak, Caryville, Royal Blue, Lone Mountain, Sandlick, Springdale, Arthur, Harrogate-Shawanee, Clairfield, Howard Quarter, Evanston, Sneedville, Treadway, Kyles Ford, Mooresburg, Kingsport, Bristol TN, South Holston Dam, Pine Orchard, High Point, Petros, Oak Ridge, Clinton, Maynardville, Norris Lake, Paulette, Rose Hill, Sharps Chapel, Luttrell, Bean Station, Alpha, Morristown, Russellville, Bybee, Newport, Greeneville, Johnson City, Elizabethton, Bearden, Knoxville, Lake Forest, Jefferson City, Strawberry Plains, Chestnut Hill, Dandridge, White Pine, Happy Valley, Maryville, Alcoa, Harrisburg, Kodak, McMahan, Sevierville, Seymour, Pigeon Forge, Hiltons, Benhams, Bristol VA, and Abingdon 154 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026 ...Rain Changing to Snow Late Wednesday Afternoon and Evening... A cold front will move across east Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and southwest North Carolina late Wednesday afternoon and evening bring with it widespread precipitation and colder temperatures. A band of rain will move into the region then mix with and change over to snow by early evening. A brief period of accumulating snow is possible across the Plateau, southwest Virginia, northeast Tennessee, and central valley. Snowfall of 1/2 inch is possible mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces, and up to 1 inch across the higher ridges. Snow covered roadways are possible across the higher terrain Wednesday evening. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further details or updates. $$

The 12z GEFS and GEPS(and prior runs) have roughly 6" of snow for their NE TN ensemble means. Usually, that is a good sign. No idea if those numbers will verify, but I am optimistic that we see some winter weather over the next couple of weeks.

Here are the full run ensemble clown map members...

The 12z GEM para is again the model which I "think" simulates the next ten days in a sensible fashion. As Boone noted, lots of light events are embedded. Systems don't look overly amped, but looks sensible in terms of its QPF and track given cold air in place. This is what "should" be occurring at the base of a highly amplified trough. Beginning the 17th, there are several small events which rotate through.