Carvers Gap

For me, it looks like a potentially big cold shot coming at some point during March. That isn't really earth shattering news, but just trying to time it is going to be the tough part. The CFSv2 has it at 6z and the Euro Weeklies mean has March being progressively colder. You all know your own climatology. Folks in NE TN and the Plateau can score well into early April. March snow is not an anomaly IMBY, though it has been during La Nina. I am really excited that maybe this summer won't be ridiculously hot w/ the onset of El Nino and same for fall. Jury is out on next winter. If the El Nino is moderate or strong, I will roll w/ a torch for DFJ. If it is weak, I will roll with December warm, and January and February seasonal but snow chances. The strength of the El Nino is crucial. Sometimes lately, even a weak El Nino is torchy here.

The 0z Euro was really amplified towards the end of the month. I think there is a window there from say Feb 24-March10. It fits the pattern we have seen all winter. Warms up here. Mammoth gets blitzed. We get a brief cold shot which is followed by another short warm-up....then the hammer comes down for a couple of weeks.

The 18z GFS yet again advertises a snow storm inside of d10 around Feb 21....slider.

The Sierra Nevada got hammered on Christmas. 18 days later, we went into the tank w/ temps. I think we get colder a bit sooner than that, but check this out... Mono County- Including the cities of Lee Vining, Bridgeport, Mammoth Lakes, and Coleville 1106 AM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Snow accumulations between 15 to 30 inches west of Highway 395, with 2 to 4 feet in the high Sierra. This includes locations such as Conway Summit, Lee Vining, June Lake, Mammoth Lakes, and Toms Place. 8 to 18 inches near and east of Highway 395, such as Bridgeport, Walker, Bodie, and Benton. Lesser amounts of 2 to 4 inches for the Chalfant Valley. Winds gusting 35 to 45 mph, with up to 65 mph for wind prone locations along US-395. Sierra ridge gusts over 100 mph.

The 18z GFS(and GFS in general) has been trying to cook something up. As we approach shoulder season, it is a vastly more competitive as a model.

I think the cold is just on the outside edge of deterministic guidance. On an interesting note, and so I don't have to post twice, @John1122the Sierra Nevada is about to get absolutely hammered. The Mammoth webcams should be incredible. Some models are spitting out 200-300" over the next 16 days depending on the run and model. That is good for them as fire season would be terrible in the Sierra without water. I am sure they are thrilled. Interestingly, we got very cold about 2-3 weeks after their big Christmas snows.

I should add that spring is tricky as the 500 pattern would allow for more severe cold(reference maps above), but eventually spring will win. Not as much of a sure bet as say the post Thanksgiving cold shot and January cold shot were. We still have lakes and ponds which are frozen up here. I still have snow on the north side of my house.

The Weeklies are cold from week 3 onward - I wouldn't even say 50-60s seasonal stuff. Looks to me like highs in the 40s for many. I would assume most understand we aren't getting January temps in late February or March - LOL. But the Weeklies this afternoon are a slog. Maps are referenced above. Same, exact signal as the past two cold shots. I would put a target date from just after Feb 21 to the end of March(or earlier). I do think winter hangs on longer than most are gonna want it to...especially after this warm-up gets everyone ready for spring. I highly doubt NE TN and your area are done for the season. I would never guarantee anything...but the pattern itself would yield cold. I would suggest it may well be significantly colder than seasonal, but still a ways to go before getting too specific on my part. They were cold enough this afternoon that I was digging up the Pisgah snow analogs for May of 92. I think a lot of folks who are new to the region haven't seen what March can do in Tennessee as we have flipped warm during so many recent springs. I am not saying we go to that place this March...but I have certainly seen March be a winter month. This has been a winter where we have thought it ended multiple times. Does it have one last gasp? Maybe. I am gonna make one early call...I think fall comes early.

In the words of the great Yogi Berra, "It's like deja vu all over again." Here are some maps from the Weeklies which just ran....The first three are control runs. The last is the ensemble 500 map. Snow signal is showing up at the end of February and into early March. This model has been pretty consistent with that look. This is not a warm look, and this is what we were seeing similar to the last two cold air masses which came into the eastern half of the US. Could winter be over? Sure. But there are multiple examples of winter which just kind of hangs on...similar to endless summer.

I wish I could be optimistic and say that winter is over....nope. The Weeklies are bleak when it comes to cold returning(meaning a very cold March and last week of February). I think we are seeing the same pattern repeat itself. Strong cold shot, 2-3 week warm-up....wash, rinse, repeat. The coldest temps are just outside of the range of deterministic models at this point. Now, could the weeklies be wrong? For sure. Some winters break for spring exactly like this. But the Weeklies tend to suggest that winter hangs on, and probably more than most would like.

It looks to me like next weekend is a weak slp pushes west of the Apps and then transfers to the inland Plain of GA or the Carolinas. Blizzard setup for the Northeast. If we can get a cleaner pass, that is money here as well. Ensembles have energy to the west of the Apps w/ a transfer to an inland runner.

Really good look next weekend....there is a low in the lakes which is messing w/ thermals....but there is time for that to adjust. NE TN needs to watch this one, and especially SW VA.

After the window on the 14-15th...it looks like a sustained return to cold looks like it begins around the 21st. That "should last through March 10th-ish...could be longer. Watching the Winter Olympics is a great way to pass the time, and see a lot of Alps snow.

Amazing to see a road that I run on almost every day...show up in the newsfeed. Photo number one for the win. That was an intense band today, Holston. One of these days you are gonna pass me while I am running. Just look for the slow guy who is in his 50s w/ glasses! I don't wear plush running gear.

That map is exactly why predicting snow in a seasonal forecast is very difficult. Temps and precip patterns are generally easier. During La Nina, the west end of the state normally finds its way into snowfall. During weak La Nina's w/ a -QBO, the east end of the state often finds its way into normal snowfall(or above) with very cold temps. Ice hit the middle of the state. Whether we like the frozen precip types or not....the state has seen plenty of frozen precip. Many places are out of salt. Been a pretty brutal stretch of winter for most in the forum(not all). What has been interesting this winter is to see the MJO really not play a bigger role. HL blocking and the EPO have ruled the roost so far. The big losers in the snow sweepstakes(and this can flip on a dime) so far have been portions of the Sierra Nevada and a good portion of the Rockies. Canada actually has done well north of Seattle. I bet if one pulled out a drought map, that map above would likely match it. Drought begets drought. Middle TN had drought for a good part of summer and fall. NE TN finally found some snow after several winters of watching others get snow, and a lot of it. We didn't experience the long term drought which others have had. We had some rain this fall, and that is often a harbinger of where snow will fall during winter. I do think we are slowly going to climb out of this pattern(trough east...ridge west) as February progress. I think we see warm weather next week(though maybe less warm than originally modeled), and then maybe one last parting cold shot(and maybe very cold) at the end of February and into early March. Modeling has this to some degree, and LC has mentioned it as well (has the hot hand). The Euro Weeklies are not warm for March...and many of us will be ready for spring. LC says the pattern should flip pretty quickly during March to warm. The Weeklies aren't quite on board with that yet.

Haha. Oh get a grip. This is a message board...not a scientific paper. And honestly, this forum is about as accurate as one can find on AmWx, and a lot less whiny than most places - but I bet you know that already. @Holston_River_Rambleris a great poster. You failed to mention both January and December (when averaged together) will be BN for temps at TRI w/ AN snowfall. Talk about misleading and only telling part of the story. That is cherrypicking on your part. Plus, you are in the February thread trying to discuss stuff from almost two months ago about a region I am assuming(not sure to be honest) that you are not a part of. We don't need a hall monitor from another forum. Trust me, Holston and Mr Bob are a lot more polite than I would have been. You are just in here stirring the sh!t IMHO.

And to reference my earlier post about this being the coldest day at TRI since 2015...

Here is the photo of S Holston Lake. A picture is worth a thousand words.... It not uncommon for high elevation lakes to freeze during cold winters in NE TN. It is quite uncommon for TVA lakes in NE TN to have that much ice in my experience.

MRX graphics for the weekend....

Portions of E TN mountain counties, some areas of SW VA, and mountain counties of SE KY are under a winter weather advisory for tomorrow as we are set to see what is hopefully the last cold shot for a bit. I need a break from the cold, and you won't hear that very often from me. We have just recently been BN(sometimes severely so) during our coldest climo of the year. TRI is at roughly 10" of snow so far since Jan 11th. Places around Nashville are still without power from the ice storm almost two weeks ago. Road crews and schools need a break. I know some places in NE TN have run out of salt. I would guess Feb will end up possibly AN due to the thaw next week, and the month being a short month. I had a warmer Feb as part of my winter forecast back in June - so part of me hopes it is slightly AN. However, the last ten days of the month could return to colder temperatures which might last into the well into March...However, as Jeff notes in the banter(?) thread, I don't think severe is out of the question. Often in our forum, severe weather and winter weather can coexist in the month of March.

Here are the winter monthly averages for TRI(so far): January -1.6F...snow 8.6 which is +5.6 AN December +0.7F...snow 0.9 which was -0.7 BN February (which will certainly modify some with WELCOMED warmed temps! bring it on) as of 2/4: -17.4F...snow is +0.4 so far February had the coldest day(regardless of month) since 2015 according to David Boyd of WCYB along w/ two record lows on Feb 1st and 2nd. February 1st was -27.8 BN and Feb 2nd was -28.4 BN. There are portions of lakes frozen solid right now which rarely freeze over in NE TN. There have been three record lows set in the 2000s at TRI....February 2026 now holds two of those three record lows. We have had back-to-back winter storms during the past two weekends...an ice storm and snow storm. It snowed again last night. I would guess MBY probably has had about 12" of snow so far this winter. Lots of nickel and dime stuff in addition to the big storm. And yes, temps after Christmas were warm, but oddly TRI didn't set a single record high here, but again....the temps for both December and January will average out BN for both months combined at TRI. With the exception of just a few days, TRI has been BN since Jan 11. This has been an impressive cold spell.

Definitely a strong signal showing up at this range. Is the Nino finally kicking in w/ the STJ starting to show some life?

Seriously...take the climate stuff somewhere else. But just so we have the record straight and don't just cherry pick....Temps are BN for DJF so far as a whole for TRI. That is just fact. TRI just booked two record lows for February to start the month. Rivers here are frozen solid here, but I bet you maybe don't know that. The last time I remember that was 17-18. Temps have been BN as a base level since Jan 11. The first half of December was BN. Definitely was a torch right after Christmas with the chinook...but again, you are cherry picking stuff. Take the rest of this garbage to the climate forum or back to your forum wherever that is.

Roads up her were/are a mess today. Snow(light) began falling last night at around 8:00PM and continued for about 5-6 hours. We got about .5-1” of snow and it absolutely wrecked I81. The rain froze on the spot as the front rolled in. That is the second time that has happened this year.

12z suite gonna make us track a system from 10 days out?! Just 40 more runs to go! LOL