Carvers Gap

The 12z GFS starts to break down the furnace by about the 15th. It has snow almost in northern Maine at some point during that run. It may be grasping at straws, but there is a glimmer of hope. I think we at least see a few cold fronts being to break the pattern by mid-month. We need a tropical system to break this pattern, but it is tough getting tropical systems anywhere near the US coastline during El Nino. I am really hoping the heat on modeling is feedback. We are entering that timeframe where models will miss the first couple of cold fronts. The GFS tends to do a little better during fall than the Euro in regards to spotting cold. The ridge in the middle of the country has been TOUGH to budge this summer. I know those folks have to be ready for it to depart!

The other thing that I seem to notice during the past decade is that fall is just HOT. It does seem like when we have endless summer...that the ensuing winter features severe cold at some point. Why? I suspect the mechanism which can create the extreme heat during fall also supports extreme cold during winter - strong amplification. Short story...it seems like falls which have extreme heat feature strong amplification during winter at some point. IMBY, it has been pretty rare to see endless summer lead to a non-winter. We will see if the CANSIPS sobers up by October. Its October run often has some skill.

Super Ninos are generally blowtorch for MBY. Just interesting to see Cansips on the other side of the map. It really likes a strong ridge out West for much of winter, but not a lot of analogs w/ strong Ninos support that feature. However, I do think Tenn winters do kind of travel in packs as John notes. It does seem of late that extreme cold finds its way here for 7-14 days at some point during the winter regardless of the pattern. During the Nino winters of the 90s, it was like pulling teeth to get cold into those patterns. We'll see! Torch is probably the safe bet, but the Cansips has me looking over my shoulder. It is a good model for seasonal forecasts, but by no means perfect. The NAO is the trump card as well as the MJO which "could" support more convection over preferred MJO regions.

The Sept 1 seasonal CANSIPS barely budges on its cold winter idea for the SE. Big PNA ridge and trough east of Hawaii. Split flow and seasonal cold. I remain skeptical, but a normal "biased warm" model is cold for our DJF time frame. Precip is AN for most of the region, and much AN for far eastern areas. Temps are BN. There is a coastal storm signal for the entire winter. We'll see! But man.... And if correct, it implies the worst of winter might well drag into March w/ an anomalous PNA ridge which reaches almost to the NP. Normally, these types of winters feature a stable PV, but good luck if that setup occurs.

I think this breaks down around the first of October. LR ext models are hinting that we have about four more weeks of this furnace, and then it flips. I hate hot September weather with a white hot passion.

I think a tropical system will break this pattern sooner than later...kind of like a blizzard during winter shaking things up. I do 100% agree that the next ten days look like a sauna.

Great product and great share! I am going to have to wade through all of that, but I generally understand 75% of the output - but not all. Meaning, I need to learn how to toggle all of that. We are missing snow data at TRI for several big winters unless that has been fixed recently...notably 95-96. Some of those missing data pieces include blizzards which have been scaled back to smaller events. It would be awesome to put @John1122 family's data into that algorithm of JW's. His family has the gold standard for private, uncorrupted, and ongoing wx obs for this forum. Even thought they don't match my region perfectly (he is further west and on the Plateau), I still trust his data above all others.

Scannerfood(FB) has a photo of that storm taken from I26(looking north) as one crosses Bays Mountain. Lightning is behind the feature that was likely formed, so there is a decent silhouette of it. Scud or no...that feature is likely the one associated w/ the tornado warning last night. Oddly enough, on the rare occasions that we get tornadoes IMBY, the often come from the NE - that is not the case in other parts of TRI. https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=1506332371540513&set=a.552693933571033

Mother Nature has declared a do-over for last spring's "dry heat" and low precip. Now, we have humid heat and frog stranglers like we are living in Central Florida. Jeff, I lived in Central Florida for two years. You gotta make this stop! LOL. I am all for rain, but the downpours are getting crazy!

Bristol got absolutely hammered. Lots of flooding reports on social media. Euclid Ave looks like it got hit the worst.

Right now, Knox Co is under these… t storm watch t storm warning heat advisory flood advisory flood warning

Just tagging onto to 1234. More storms. This heat is really fueling these systems. Strong outflow boundaries developing east of the interstate in Cocke and Sevier counties

Yet another MCS seems poised this late evening to crash into portions of SW VA and NE TN. The ground is soggy here. I spent the better part of today cleaning up storm debris in the form of downed trees. One good, windy storm is gonna be a huge problem if it occurs anywhere in the near future w/ all of the wet ground and very full leaf canopies. On the plus side, fall should be beautiful if we can get some cool temps later in Sept. It looks like something akin to a rainforest in NE TN right now w/ all of the green!

Generally, big Ninos are warm here IMBY. But...it doesn't take my imagination much to think about what "could" happen if cold managed to find its way where w/ the STJ absolutely ripping. Maybe 09-10 is an analog, but not perfect? For me, this winter is a mystery and not a slam dunk like the previous two Nina winters. The other thing is if the Nino crashes midway through winter, and allows cold air to rush SE w/ the precip pattern in place. I don't think winter will be overly cold. But the it doesn't have to be crazy cold if January goes climo w/ a loaded precip pattern. Tough call. If the CANSIPS holds for the next two runs, that would be a good step. Also, analogs have been super sketchy during the past decade in regards to being accurate. A lot of seasonal forecasts are analog based I think. All of that said...we have seen during recent winters that there have been big snows in the northern hemisphere where amped precip jets hit cold air. Some yet-to-be place in NA seems primed for that.

CANSIPS has had a big western ridge(AK) for two straight seasonal runs - July and August.

They are setting watch boxes well out in front of this next line. Southwest VA bout to get hammered. I almost have a severe thunderstorm warning over MBY and the storms are just now exiting KY.

Flood warning are posted for multiple counties. That stuff coming south from KY looks like it means business. A tornado warning was posted earlier today over Saltville, VA.

Heavy rain north and west of the I81/26 interchange in NE TN. The storms look like streamers during northwest flow events, but with lots of lightning!

Another day with the fetch from the east…this time the SE. Seeing storms track from the Apps to SE KY is always crazy to watch.

As ALWAYS, great disco in this thread.

We are over due for a non-winer in NE TN. Just looking at yesterday's and today Euro LR ex control...winter may start early in the Rockies. Of course that means it will be extended summer here...haha -> the the pattern discussion thread and you will know why I am laughing. Every, single time. I think we see severe cold in the Canadian front rang or Plains at times. The real question is weather there will be a mechanism to move it southeastward. I have been watching solar flux lately. I know...I am bored w/ this pattern. Anyway, with the double peak over for this solar cycle, that could be a good thing for us. I actually don't like solar flux spikes. I understand they might cause disturbances in the strat, but....I think there might be a loose correlation to forecasted cold shots which never materialize. I tend to roll with this for temps in E TN. Dec - AN Jan - AN Feb - Normal Snow for NE TN only! Dec - BN Jan - Normal Feb - Normal My gut says this winter may be colder than most are projecting, even me. The CANSIPS has been sneaky good for a decade at the seasonal level. It is stubborn w/ a full winter ridge over Alaska. Euro seasonal are not enthused. That said, the CANSIPS are still at a range where they can change maybe one more time bigly. I think this winter may well be defined by 1-2 big storms to track. They may or may not result in anything. But w/ the STJ ripping and if the CANSIPS is even right for 2-3 weeks for the winter, there should be options for winter. Of note, strong or super Ninos generally are hot garbage over NE TN. My thoughts are that we are in a -NAO cycle, and that bails us out. The gradient in the Pacific matters quite a bit to grab an idea from typhoon tip. If the gradient is strong, we get typical Nino responses. If it is not strong, I suspect warmth dominates. Bastardi mentioned that today, but that is a staple of most seasonal forecasts to be fair. Without the solar flux spikes, we might steal some cold. PDO is a wildcard.

For at least second time this summer, our popcorn storms are coming from the Northeast. @Windspeedcalled it. Mowing sucks right now. It is almost impossible to find a time when the grass isn't wet. I am so attuned to La Nina summer endgames, I just about forgot what it looks like not to see everything fried and crisp at this time of year. That "should" prevent extended summer, but probably delay the start of winter. I will say that I have seen some false starts to winter with El Nino...only to hit a "meh" pattern for a good portion of December. Just flip everything from the last winter. I was telling @tnweathernutthat what interests me is whether we can get a base-active STJ(prob base warm-ish temps) to slam into a cold air mass which finds its way southwestward. It will likely be tougher to get those cold air masses into the SE, but if we do...look out. This looks like a very active pattern, and I expect that to continue through the first half of winter w/ obvious ebbs and flows. This is one of those winters where we probably have plenty of precip but less cold. Maybe some big hitters buried in a base meh pattern.

We need the PDO to go positive IMHO. Bastardi looked at it recently, and mentioned 23-24 as a year that occurred (Nino and -PDO). It tried to go cold but the cold ended up along the spine and front range of the Rockies. There was no mechanism to get the cold into the East for long periods of time. The needed QBO cycle(for cold, snowy) is what is counterintuitive given the solar state(dropping flux at the back en of this cycle?) and ENSO combo. Now, the PDO has moved towards neutral this year. That index really likes to double dip, but this has been a severely negative episode for several years, and I wonder if it flips positive for a bit. However, it could briefly go positive or neutral and then back negative.

Great question. One of the guys at WxBell maybe had an article about that. The best winter scenario might be opposite of what I think is normally best. I hate to guess. Let me go look. But the correlation w/ a strong Nino and PDO is tricky.

Definitely shredded it. It got its act together again around I-81…just west of the winter twilight zone where snow bands reform on NW flow.