Carvers Gap

The 18z GFS is on winter storm #3 at 288.

The 18z GFS is just one big over-running event. Can the cold get here in the amounts we need? Can the STJ show up as modeled?

Halftime. I posted this on June 8th in the winter spec thread...I still think many areas end up w/ normal snowfall FWIW.....my eastern valley AN snowfall looks in jeopardy for sure. Snow is ALWAYS a crapshoot. Some good takes and some HOT takes!!!! I will work on some analogs packages. This is tricky this year as we were more La Nina last winter, trended back to neutral, and may trend weakly negative again. For now and subject to change... Temps... Dec: BN Jan: N Feb: AN Precip... All months normal to slightly BN IMHO...but w/ a chance for slightly AN if you like the CANSIPS. Snow... AN eastern valley w/ an early start normal everywhere else w/ snow a bit later in middle and west (but honestly might be similar to what you got this winter)

The 18z GFS is definitely running w/ the over-running idea. Unsurprisingly it has trended slightly north, BUT...this looks like the winters of the past decade where the cold stalls either at the Plateau or Apps. I bet if you dig back through my winter forecast in June, you will see this scenario mentioned.

And I get that it is frustrating for some. My pet peeve is tracking a potential pattern change, and it turns into a seasonal frontal passage. Haha. I just don't see this as a "can kick". Jan 1-10 was a can kick. This weekend's system was a pretty bad model error in terms of synoptics. I do think the GFS has a tendency to (erroneously)really, really amplify features on the map at times between the d 7-15 times. I don't understand it. It wasn't like that last winter that I can recall - maybe I need to go back and check. Right now, we are fighting widespread drouth over the SE. Trying to get a moisture conveyor belt going over drought areas is like pulling teeth.

What we are looking for is an STJ wave to have a trailing hp or one over the top. It looks like the GFS held back cold on this run, and it will dump SE w/ the second system.

The second system on the 18z GFS should be good as it has a big high over the top.

Illustrative of what we have been talking about w/ the GL low....take a look at the 18z GFS. The high scoots out quicker on the 22nd. A weak slp slides in over the top, and thermals get mixed. Also, as I noted earlier....we really want that slider a bit south of us as most of those features have trended a bit warmer and further north one time - all of that normal. However, I wouldn't be surprised for this to trend colder at some point. As is on the 18z GFS...ice setup.

Got the EB mega heat island on the north end of LI and the D--tar smell from **** on the south end. I have been thankful for winter westerlies! KPT folks have extra wx "hurdles" for sure. Plus, the S Holston(KPT) is the lowest elevation in TRI I believe. I also think tailwaters (50s year round) are somewhat of an insulator to really cold or really warm temps.

Well, that adds a layer of small bit interest for me. When is the best lift if there is "best lift?"

There could always be surprises, but precip amounts are very light...and has been on modeling for several days in E TN. I have zero knowledge of Signal Mountain w/ these types of setups. I looks to me that south of I40, this is rain...but at elevation I just don't know. The MRX graphic looks about right to me.

The HRRR and 18z 3k NAM are all snow for NE TN, albeit very light amounts. The 18z RGEM is rain. When is onset for this?

My skies are clear for sure. It hasn't been warm today at all. When I went running this morning, it was 12 degrees I think...one of the top 5 coldest running mornings(this winter) for me. Yesterday was by far the worst. I made the mistake of running down on the river(you know where it is...NI).

The current 500 pattern did not get can kicked. It arrived on Jan 12th as we noted for at least a couple of weeks prior that it would. I don't think anyone is on a sugar high...The upcoming weekend event was never real as there was a blatant error on GFS modeling where it connected w/ an eastern Pac storm. However, they still had to send hurricane hunters out to make sure. But folks are allowed to get excited. We only live once. And can-kicking is just part of it in the Upper South. edit: The biggest adversity we are facing is drought.

Every six hours we pull out the sorting hat.

Just looking at ensembles. Somebody out west is saying, "Every time we get an NAO, it hooks into the PNA ridge." Throwing shade at the one billion times the NAO has hooked into the eastern ridge. I really have no idea what happens when the NAO hooks into a PNA ridge, but guessing that is a good storm signal?

Ah, crap. Our transmission went out on the old washer. It was more expensive to replace than it was to by a new one. We installed the new one yesterday...modeling was good today. I am not saying it is the new washer, but if we get two new washers in the forum....could be epic. Maytagmegeddon.

All three 12z ensembles have this window at 500. And this isn't event remotely the first run where they have had this. I think the deterministic models are just now catching on. Ensembles have been leading the way on this. I grabbed a 7d most opportunistic over-running window for each model. I have attached the 10d temp mean for d3-13 on the Euro(still hasn't finished running).

Yeah, man. I don't wan't any part of that...but the wx pattern is honking for over-running with that gradient. The thing that has concerned me for a bit is ice which is then followed by extreme cold. I saw that happen once in the Piedmont. @Met1985might be able to comment on that. Folks were dangerously (CO poisoning risk) bringing their grills into their homes. If we want winter storms, we need that gradient a bit further south still as it could gradually drift north. OTH, if models are just now getting a good handle on this...tornado alley could get ice and snow. Need to see a few more runs, BUT modeling has already kind of circled this timeframe as one to watch. If forced to forecast it now, I would say southern KY is gonna get hammered. I just don't know about the rest of the forum. But the cold has been very consistent on ensembles - very consistent for this time frame for the entire area.

Yes. that is how to do it. @Daniel Boone, that is old school right there. "International Falls cold" was normally a precursor of good things here.

Turn on the hot donuts sign. New washer is working. Got my run in, and my coffee.

I sure hope this is because we are getting better data. The beginning of this window is still about 7 days out...but this trough amplification looks like it means business. The AIFS EURO is less enthused, but still has some interesting events d10-15. The good thing is that models "might be" recognizing the MJO window that is seen on CPC along w/ the climatology of recent years which is to send severe cold into the nation's mid-section during La Nina during late January. I doubt it is this extreme but 40 degree departures below normal during our two coldest weeks of the year.....

Man....not sure if the headline from the 12z Euro is cold or snow or ice. If there is severe in there somewhere....it has pretty much everything.

The 12z Euro......................fire.

This is basically the same look by the GFS and GEM....this is the look you want at 500. Big, cold high sitting over the top w/ a little bit ridging just to our east. The 12z GFS does this multiple times. The GEM looked like it was set to do the same.