Carvers Gap

This kind of shows the idea. The 3k name is decidedly SE of 12K. The 18z ICON is north. I am using the two models which serve me decently well at short range. They are just about where I can rely on them decently well The 18z RGEM is running now. Similar to 12z. It has more ZR. See MRX comments above.

The 18z HRRR has decent returns over @John1122's and @Shocker0's places. Mix ove TRI. Snow over SW VA and SE KY. If that stays the same, I would expect MRX and JKL hoist winter wx products tomorrow evening at the very lates...maybe tomorrow morning once the actual axis of precip is determined.

National Weather Service Morristown TN 117 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 115 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Dry weather today and Thursday before increasing precipitation chances Thursday evening into Friday. - Moderate chances for light snowfall across extreme northeast TN and southwest Virginia early Friday morning. Minor impacts are possible. Elsewhere, will get rain Thursday night into Friday. - Very low probability of rainfall this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 115 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 In the upper levels, nearly zonal flow or slight troughing will be over the region through the weekend as a big, broad trough dominates the Central and Eastern U.S. At the surface, high pressure will be over the region through Thursday. Thursday night into Friday, a Gulf Low moving eastward along the Gulf Coast will bring overrunning moisture into the region. Rain is expected for most of the region Thursday night into Friday. Temperature profiles support light snow Thursday night into Friday morning for Southwest Virginia and extreme Northeast Tennessee. Freezing rain probabilities are low in SW Virginia and extreme NE Tennessee and model soundings show a deep enough cold layer to support snow. By mid Friday morning temps will warm enough for a changeover back to rain. The lower elevations may get up to half an inch accumulation and the higher elevations may get up to an inch of accumulation. Minor travel impacts will be possible during the morning commute Friday but will be confined to SW Virginia and extreme NE Tennessee. The Tri-Cities area may see a few flakes but little to no accumulation is expected there. HREF guidance through 12Z Friday have snow totals below one inch. The Tennessee Valley won`t see any frozen precip with this system. HREF guidance doesn`t cover this whole event yet so hopefully the next forecast cycle will bring more confidence. Rain chances will be very low for the weekend and into early next week. One or more shortwaves may move through the pattern but moisture will be limited. Rain or possibly even a brief snow will be possible at some point but there is too much uncertainty to nail down specifics at this time. Widespread travel impacts are unlikely this weekend.

The 3k/12k NAM at 18z look decent for NE TN and SW VA. The 18z RGEM has not run for whatever reason.

We didn't start Carey in the second half. That cost us the game. 'Cuse blew our doors off when he was out. When they put him back in, we came all the way back, but it took too much effort. The good thing is...I think we have our starting lineup now. Ament, Boswell, Gillespie, Carey, and Estrella(when he returns). That group can score. Then we have Abrams and Brown coming off the bench. Domes are weird places to shoot - lots of air balls until the 3 gets dialed in over time. Barnes noted that Carey and Brown is(are?) the best offensive combo in the post until Estrella returns. We came back when those guys were banging in the paint. Ament will get there. He just isn't used to getting jostled. He will toughen up and be good. Even 5 star HS recruits often have to earn their stripes!

The 12z CMC is also trying to pop a coastal. As is, it would create light frozen precip/mix for the 8-9th. NC would stand the best chance with the CMC setup, and those folks have not had a lot of snow in recent years. Good for them if so. If that is a real slp, look for it to maybe continue to trend northwest. A lot on the table at 12z...nothing big at this time, but fun to track for this early in the season. It is important to note that the GFS can be a bit progressive in these setups. I would expect it to be on the SE envelope of options at this range for the 8-9th.

I have hated to even say it out loud, but that scenario has been on modeling for days...just a bit to our SE. Now, things are trending a bit northwest. It is a narrow boundary for that to occur and a bit early in the season for the valleys, but I could see places above say 1800' scoring with this.

@Holston_River_Rambler, I do think the RGEM looks a bit too cold. Time of day is key I "think." For ice in the eastern valley, the cold air has to get trapped. Usually for that to happen, we need a clear sky to start the evening and temps drop. Then cloud cover slides over between 2-4AM and traps the cold air in the valley. I just am not sure. I do think SW VA looks prime for good snow as is SE KY and prob the Plateau if the precip can make it back that far. NE TN is a crap shoot. What interests me is the slp popping to the SE.

Very close to a Nor'Easter w/ the 8-10th system. The ICON just about pulled it off. The 12z GFS pops a coastal over eastern NC.

Let's try this one more time...the 12z GFS has a second wave of frozen precip Monday for areas along the northern Tenn border, KY, and SW VA. The 0z CMC had this as well - waiting for its 12z run.

We are close to having to start a thread for this weekend. The 12z RGEM has ice over much of the eastern valley. The 12z GFS is less formidable, but has snow for SW VA and NE TN. The 12k(edit) NAM has snow over the Plateau and SW VA/E KY. Very close call, and getting dicier with each run.

And that CFSv2 at 6z sure looks a lot like the GEFS ext last night for December.

JB mentioned that all of the predicted stalls of the MJO have not occurred yet. He said modeling is having to adjust to the idea that the MJO is just continuing on around. Now, FTR I am not opposed to the Euro idea of a stalled MJO in 8-1! I really don't know honestly. I do think the MJO is going to reload though and rotate around once again. I found the CFSv2 seasonal this AM to be reasonable for DJF. This fits with a weak Nina. I have noticed multiple models w/ the NAO beginning to fire. To me this implies that cold drops into the Plains, very cold air at times. Then, the cold pushes south eastward. Basically this goes in sequence....cold -> thaw -> very cold.

No wonder models are all over the place....

The good thing that I see with regards to the mid-month ridge rolling through is that it is temporary on all ensembles this morning. It is always in the realm of possibility that the ridge is a pattern change, but for now it looks transient at best(3-4 days at the longest). That ridge, as long as it rolls through, could very well set the stage for the coldest air of the season(so far) to fill that trough behind it. There are pretty strong mechanisms in place to deliver cold air d10-15.

The 0z 3kNAM and 0z RGEM show frozen precip over NE TN and SW VA over the weekend. Just something to keep an eye on....

@John1122, these last two basketball games and football game....like watching it snow in New Orleans, man.

The 18z AIFS has 2-3 very strong cold fronts w/ the anafront ending the run.

The last four runs of the GFS for Dec 12-17th.

The 18z GFS shows one of two extremes which have been modeled in the past 36 hours. That is a crazy cold run. Real feels have ranged from the 70s to below zero with these swings - for the same hour!!!

Haha. If u want to see a wild swing, and it has been going on for a bit…look at 360 on the GFS at 18z and then flip back and look at 12z (temp anomalies). We are talking 40-60 degree swings! Good times.

The 18z RGEM has company…the 12z NAM. Both are at range so the usual caveats apply. The 18z GFS wasn’t too far off.

The 18z RGEM is worth a look if you live in E TN from Knoxville northeastward and also the Plateau as this likely trends northwest.

And there is more. This is where the 12z GEFS left things at the end of its run. That is a cold look with two mechanisms with which to send cold southward out of Canada - EPO ridge and blocking over Greenland. And to get great winters, we need some SER.