87storms

6 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Why does nws still have this up? Do they enjoy humiliation? Anyway another event that pood the bed. I’m seriously starting to think we never see winter here again to any great degree

 

 

See you at the 1pm Euro run.

56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Chuck, I’ve joked about the resolution of those maps but seriously it’s time to have a real discussion about the depth maps. First of all the dc area failed last night because the precip shifted north of them. They only got about .15 qpf around the area and some of that was rain!  Places that got snow had higher than 10-1 ratios generally.  The temps in southern PA and my area were in the low 30s also. Everything shifted north including temps. And that area had very high ratios because of the optimal snow growth conditions.  Had the storm not shifted north like it did at the last minute the DC to Baltimore area would have had good ratios!  
 

But more importantly those snow depth maps are NEVER actually correct.  They were horrifically wrong last night. They had a max snow of 4”!  Places got 14”!  A very large area from me north to NYC got over 4”.  Those snow depth maps were awful. Had the storm not shifted north our area would have got the 4-8” NWS predicted and possibly more!  
 

They were only right in our specific location because the storm busted and missed us!  They are often right here for that same reason. Because we suck monkey nuts at snow and often the storm busts. But that’s like some guru who predicted western Michigan institute for the blind will have a losing season every year. No shit they lose every year!  That doesn’t make him a great prognosticator. In places that actually get hit by the storm those maps suck ass. And once in a blue moon when a snowstorm actually does flush hit us they are wrong here too like both storms back in January when they said 2” max and the area got 3-6”
 

The last storm Tuesday were wrong too!  They had a max zone of 4-5” and places got 12”. I got 6” and they had 1” here. Honestly those depth maps are atrocious. Saying the models never indicated more than a few inches and using those god awful abominations to justify that is not legitimate. The reality is 18 hours out the models had us getting hit with that fgen snow band that dumped 6-10” up in PA!  Had that not shifted north the NWS might have even busted low in places!  

I've just been too busy the last couple weeks to track this system closely, but models definitely showed upwards of 0.4-0.5" of precip even down to DC.  However, I wonder if some of the north trend had to do with temps/boundary setting up further north as opposed to "well, the storm just went further north".  I mean, it did, but I get the vibe that it was at least partly due to it "just not being cold enough" here.  Chicken vs egg situation, I guess.

That was our seasonal bust, but it does look kinda cool out. May have weaseled into an official 2” here.

This type of system has caused forecast problems since forever lol. Models have improved, but they still struggle at times with the mountains. No complaints, though…it snowed.

Roads have caved. Snowing healthily.

1/16/2003 same thing..we were under a warning for 5-8", and we got like 0.3".  

I think I remember that one. It snowed for like 15 minutes and then stopped lol.

And just like that, there’s a coating on cars here. Snowing steadily.

Snow 33F. Radar looks good. Time to enjoy

I don’t hate how the radar looks for Frederick right now.

Looks like either flurries or sprinkles here, per my window. Can’t see any snow yet.

I’m pretty sure the HRRR incorporates radar trends into its forecast. It’ll prob tick up again once the radar fills in east of the mountains. It does this sometimes.

It’s gonna snow and there’s nothing we can do about it.

The Catoctin's continue to a powerhouse snow magnet.  I like where I'm at for this, but it's definitely more chilly than cold leading in.  2-4" areawide still looks like a solid bet which is enough to make it look like winter.

Started a new job last week and have a data analytics class that’s taking up my time, so this system would be a nice bookend to a busy last few weeks in my world.

Side note…I’m hoping Richmond gets on the board to help my snowfall forecast.

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I am almost 60% of climo. With 5 weeks of good chances left here. I am not gonna complain about that. 

Another key ingredient is that the drought is all, but over.  Creeks in and around Gambrill/Watershed are moving well.

All bs, pessimism, reverse psychology, and whatever other mind tricks we play...the reality is that this winter is at least better than the last one...and there's still time to stat pad.

I think this one was closer to a wash, but I can accept 3 for 3.  We will continue the practice as needed.

I’m beginning to master the art of faux reverse psychology.

Snow has really picked up here now. Just got the text of the re-evaluating of the 2 hr delay. Schools are now closed for FCPS MD. 

It’s pretty much sticking to everything here. It’s simply snowing too hard for it not to lol. Doesn’t look like it’ll last too long, though.

Flakes are definitely of the large category.

It’s ripping here lol. Some accumulations on roads, too.

The airports could still theoretically go climo+ but it was a red flag early on for the forecasted epic winter that we weren’t on the board by mid-December. I had posted this in the Panic thread back then, but winters like 1996, 2003 and 2010 always showed themselves early. Even the epic backloaded winters like 2015 had accumulating events in November, December and early January.

Exactly. Those backloaded winters were only backloaded on snow. There was cold air around for what seemed like November thru March.

CWG is starting to second guess themselves. If PD fails I think they might pronounce last rites.

Honestly, any winter that starts slow (like this one) is an immediate flag to me. I’m not surprised at all by this outcome so far and was one of the reasons I went low on snowfall.

Now watch us get a March hecs.

6z gfs at 150 + 0z euro at 234
0z cmc also shows support for feb 17

This week might be the pattern transition/hand-off.

My new job allows wfh Monday’s and the owner of the company has worked in aerospace. I should talk to her about this lol.

Preview of future winters. We're in so much trouble in the long term. BWI was +17 on a daytime high yesterday and all you heard from folks was how great it was and "I hope it never snows again". 

I’d rather there not be cc and I’m all about the seasons, but I do find it funny how we root for temperatures that require a couple layers of clothing. Snow is awesome, but 70 degrees is a lot more comfortable than 30 lol. I’m all for going green, but I’m actually more concerned with how dirty we’ve made this planet with all the plastic, etc. We’ve left a mark, that’s for sure.

Little shower moved through during my mtb’ing, but nothing dramatic. Kinda felt good, if anything lol.