87storms

I’m liking the early spring weather, but my allergies are starting to ramp up.

GFS says enjoy this week because winter ain't over yet.

Windy with a few flakes flying around at times in Frederick.  Otherwise, a pretty good day to get work/studying done.  Very much looking forward to the upcoming weather this week.

54 minutes ago, CAPE said:

6z GEFS looks similar

Cape, all I need is one more snowstorm to snag that snowfall contest...it's the 4th quarter...I'm ready to reel this in.

16 minutes ago, anotherman said:

At this point, I'm hoping this can prevent us from having disgusting weather in April and May.  If it can give us a cool spring, I'm all for it.  Anything to put off the oppressive heat and humidity....

I want a humid, sloppy spring and summer.  The theme of last year was dry/drought/wildfire smoke...I would prefer to not have a repeat of that.

I wfh from today...was hoping to get a an April spring-time hoops session in, but rain has entered the immediate Frederick vicinity.

warm/wet, cold/dry?

Have seen and heard multiple T&L since I left work. Very unusual with these temps.

Is it a good sign when our February 2024 pattern discussion is mostly about tropical, winter 2026, maple sugaring and ski conditions in northern new england?  

…with a dash of reverse psychology.

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

That certainly could happen. We don't need a sustained block in March to get some snow. Timing as usual, and some wild shit can happen with flawed patterns and shorter wavelengths.

I'm all in.

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Not sure about this. Looking at the depiction at the end of the ens runs, and continuing forward with the extended products, it looks like the same progression we had previously that led to nothing more than a rather weak, transient -NAO. There were hints of a retrograding Scandi ridge then too, but it was a unicorn. Just going with persistence, I don't think a legit(stable) NA block is in the cards this winter, not that it would make much difference in mid to late March anyway.

That sucks...I only need one more mild/moderate event to move up in the snowfall forecast competition.

Edit: I just need one more 4-6" region-wide event.  I'm now back to tracking.

So winter is over?

Yes, but only until there’s another system to track.

I love November. That’s when model watching starts! And winter isn’t a disaster yet

Yea, but 2 months until spring > 4 months until spring

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

It's a verifiable fact that March is the worst month of the year around here.  Bright sunshine but cold temps with that seemingly never ending biting wind.  And then there are the days where DC is warm and 70F but it's 50F and overcast here next to the bay with an onshore breeze.

I think November is my least favorite weather month.  It starts to get chilly with shorter days, but it's not quite snow season.  I factor in psychology into how I grade months and I honestly think January might be one of my favorites simply because it can and does snow, but I also know that spring isn't too far off.

3 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Ultimately it's going to be very specific if we are talking about personalized backyard results. But area wide it doesn't get much more intense than June 29, 2012 

I had a pretty diesel microburst roll through my spot in Bethesda a week prior to that, too.

FWIW, I don't think winter is over yet.  Still time (albeit not a lot of time) for one more...or at least more to track.  We've weaseled into a few events this year, so no reason to think it can't happen again.

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@Kmlwx usually starts that, but someone can get it going. If there’s a “we’re due index” for thunderstorms, it’s got to be pretty high because the last 2 years have been duds.

Yea, that should probably be KMLWX.  He'll know when it's time.  It's probably a little early.

Edit: He did create it in December of 2022 for '23, though.  Shows what kind of winter we had last year lol.

3 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Agree. But the bugs this year are going to be relentless because of the warm wet winter.

Yea, we've had some light mosquito seasons recently, at least around here.  I was getting tore up during our rainy years.  Not really looking forward to that, but it's the price you pay to play.

It's been an hour since the last post in this region.  Can we fire up the severe weather thread?  I'm getting hyped about that.

23 hours ago, vastateofmind said:

I feel you...I really do. A decade or so ago, when we would have a bust like we did last night, I was a bear to be around. And would bitch on here, too. But I just can't get that emo about it anymore...and my butt-hurtness about missing out on a storm isn't going to change climo for my location, which (let's face it) just doesn't get that much snow anymore. I'm grateful for our solid week of January winter a few weeks back...two low impact snowstorms within a week. And now, having already heard the spring peepers last week...I'm ready for spring.

I'm looking forward to the spring in part because we did pretty well with bringing up the water table this winter.  Could be a nice looking spring as a result.

52 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I’m ready for spring, tbh. Just waiting until March 1 to grade my temp and precip outlook. If it snows in march I’ll take it, but if it ends up being 60-70 degrees then all the better. 

I've got one more storm left in me, but otherwise...yea, I'm ready for Spring.

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I have no memory of either of those two events.

March 17, 2014 was legit...we had about 6-8" in Bethesda.  March 2018 was about half that, but still a decent event...and was also a reminder that you really need rates during the day to keep up with the sun angle.  Once the rates lightened up, it was a wrap.

14 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Have you seen the long ranges?

I haven’t lol. But there’s still a month for a system to show up in the mid-range.

It’s always interesting to see “winter’s over” comments the same day that it snows.

Went for a breezy, chilly walk around Baker Park earlier. Felt very much like a prime winter day. A little snow around. It was pretty nice! I want to walk around Baker after a big storm at some point. Got to be an experience. 

I’ve had a couple strolls this winter through and around Baker. Good stuff. I’m craving a hike through Gambrill (did it post-storm in winter ‘22). The problem is I have no interest driving up Hamburg Rd when it’s slick out.