Mailman

I can't speak to the accuracy of the GRAF model.

Is this from someone you trust or some weenie (like me)?

Geez.

18z HRRR looks real promising.

.DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The Winter Storm Warning continues. Significant snow accumulations are still forecast, but sleet and freezing rain chances have increased in the ridges, particularly in northern West Virginia. The large-scale pattern as advertised by the model suite has not changed significantly with the upcoming winter storm. An Arctic cold front currently dropping across the region with a thin band of snow showers will have the main impact of introducing a very cold air mass back to the region. Upstream, shortwaves originating over the northern Plains and southern Rockies will begin to phase as they approach the Mississippi River Valley Sunday/Sunday night. Surface low pressure develops along the Gulf Coast Saturday night and lifts northeastward on Sunday, eventually handing off to a developing Atlantic Coast low by Monday morning. Inverted troughing pokes northward into the Middle and Upper Ohio Valley Saturday night and Sunday. On the eastern side of this, southeast flow and a decent southerly 850mb jet will support warming aloft mainly to the south and east of Pittsburgh on Sunday. With increased confidence in this, greater coverage and amounts of freezing rain and sleet have been introduced. This is particularly true in the higher terrain of northern West Virginia, where one to two tenths of ice accretion may occur, along with a period of sleet. This has cut down the snow accumulations in this region. Overall, moisture and lift remain impressive overall with this system. We still expect a coupled upper jet structure, layered frontogenesis, and the inverted trough to support strong lift. Precipitable water is forecast to reach around the 90th percentile level as compared to late January climatology as well. So, overall liquid equivalent totals of 1 to 2 inches are still a good bet. With the further northward extent of warm air aloft, snow-to-liquid ratios have trended down slightly, which was the main factor in lowering storm total snowfall amounts. Nevertheless, a widespread significant snowfall is still forecast across the region with high confidence. Here are the latest 48-hour ensemble-based probabilities for 48-hour snow totals through 7 AM Monday. They are similar to previous model runs overall, but probabilities for the higher- end accumulations have decreased slightly: 15":10-50% 12":50-80% 8": 75-95% 6": 85-100% 4": 95-100% Given the lower expected SLRs, there remains a decent chance of a heavier, wetter snow, especially near and south of Pittsburgh. Also, given low SLRs and increased chances for freezing rain, the chance of power outage impacts is increasing in the higher elevations, particularly in northern West Virginia. We will need to continue to monitor precipitation-type trends and adjust accordingly. However, there is high confidence in Winter Storm Warning-level impacts in any case. The timing of the heaviest snow still appears to be during Sunday morning south of I-70, and late morning Sunday through Sunday evening north of I-70. Cold northwesterly flow and the crossing parent upper trough could result in lingering snow into Monday. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts as this system approaches, as widespread impacts to travel and daily life are highly likely Sunday into Monday.

Guh.

Just wanted to say it's been fun tracking this thing with everyone the last several days. Hope everyone gets to cash in. Also... glad no one on here had a meltdown at any point. I remember we had one poster on here a few years ago. He(?) was wound up good and proper.

NAM seems to have lessened the warm tongue. Some good news to start my day.

No mix on the GFS.

Good ol' DT.

Did not see this posted.

The northward trend has continued to some degree in the latest guidance suite. We still foresee northern Plains and southern Rockies mid-level shortwaves to phase as they cross into the Middle Ohio Valley. As they do so, a surface low develops near the Gulf coast and tracks northeastward. There is still some variance with the track of this low. The northern trend is starting to increase the chance of some mixed precipitation to the southeast of Pittsburgh, and a slight chance of freezing rain has been introduced to the gridded forecast. The chances of this are not high enough to meaningfully change the overall snow totals or the messaging to a significant degree, but it is a trend that we will need to monitor as the event approaches. In any event, support for overall lift remains quite good given a coupled 250mb jet structure, layered frontogenesis, and an inverted surface trough. A moisture surge including precipitable water totals of around 0.7 inch (90th percentile for late January) and a deep, saturated dendritic growth zone will also support significant snowfall totals.

Even on the snowmaps, you can see the WTOD creeping a little bit north each run of the Euro. Hopefully it gets stuck in Morgantown.

That map tells me that PBZ must be REAL confident in the lack of a mix anywhere. I hope they're right.

Outlier.

Euro keeps the mixing in Fairmont. Niiiiiice.

UK eventually mixes after you get 8-9".