cbmclean

Maybe the SAL will block so much sunlight that it will cause massive cooling along the eastern CONUS.  

0.41" today.  Disappointed in this weekend.  Was hoping to get a good soaking.  Total of 5.25" for the month.  Not too bad compared to May and June.

0.87" yesterday and 0.38" today.  1.25" for the week and 4.51" for the month.  Hoping for a good soaking this weekend 

Total of 1.88" in the bucket.  2.52" for the week/month.  Not a drought buster but progress in the right direction anyway.

Up to 1.56" for the evening.  That's more rain today then I got in entire month of June. 

FINALLY a nice downpour in Wilson.  Don't know how long it'll last, but it is beautiful: 0.45" in just a few minutes.

Edit: radar showing perfect alignment for a good soaking; a long line of storms oriented west to east, moving slowly in a ESE direction.  Hoping to hit the 1" mark (per day) for the first time since early May

The northern half of Wilson County is on a dismal streak.  Cells go here to die.  Picked up 0.10" of scraps.  0.18" for the month.

18

Tons of thunder and lightning, but only 0.05" inthe bucket.  Very disappointing.

MBY is the black scribble.  The big read area to the east was did not hit my house.

The rain is attempting to drive me insane.  After yesterday's rug pull, had a nice cell headed my way which disintegrated at my doorstep and then almost immediately reformed a few miles to the east.  Its infuriating.  

4 hours ago, cbmclean said:

For something like the 47th time this spring/summer there is a nice line of storms heading in from the NW that is melting away as it heads our way.  I don't know if it negative feedback from the dry soils or what but it is happenign over and over again.

Right on cue the line collapsed in the east while remaining strong in the west.  Just for fun after the main line faded a nice litle aftershock cell popped up immediately upstream then instanstly collapsed on my doorstrep.

For something like the 47th time this spring/summer there is a nice line of storms heading in from the NW that is melting away as it heads our way.  I don't know if it negative feedback from the dry soils or what but it is happenign over and over again.

Got an astounding 0.02" out of the storms today.  The line was super lively right up until it got east of Raleigh and then it just fell apart.  Does anyone know why that was?  Was there an area of dry air or something?  Did we have too much cloud cover in the morning?

Got 0.48" in a brief torrential downpour which included some hail.  Got 0.85" yesterday so 1.33" two-day total which was muuuuuuuuch needed.  Sitting at 1.49" for the month.  

An amazing 0.15" in the bucket for today.  Just can't buy a good soaker.  Either get fringed or the remnants of a once powerful cell that dies on my doorstep.  The I-95 corridor needs some wetness.

This afternoon is turning out to be a dud.  Picked up 0.02 this morning.  Looks like that may be it for the day.

Had rain three of the last four days for a grand total of only 0.48".  We can't buy a good soaker.  Sitting at 0.98" for the month.  Hopefully we can moisten up this week.

1.25" for the day.  Needed it.

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I don’t know why everyone here laments that storm. Except for one batch of model runs, we were never in the game for that.

I think one reason is the way it hit NC (we got ~13" in Wilson NC which is like 3 years' average in one storm), NJ, NY and New England, but managed stiff the heart of this forum.

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Good…was worried about ya down there. Although that’s still a pretty crazy difference (about 7 here) considering we’re only like 700 yards apart.  The valley I walked to was on the NW side and you’re on the SE of my ridge. Maybe that affected the wind exposure, you would be sheltered by my ridge where the other side was exposed. 

What is your seasonal total?  This should help a bit.

46 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nah, that was a triple phase. Those storms require 2 very anomalous things and not just one. Can't happen without massive amplification. We can pencil in a check mark there. The next check mark may not happen b4 either of us are gone... you need 3 shortwaves embedded in the STJ, NS, and arctic jet to pull together at just the right time and blow the F up. We can barely get a messy stj/ns phase to work.... triple? Don't set a bar there or life will become pointless lol

I clearly remember @psuhoffman guaranteed a 1993 redux this winter so I am taking to the bank!

2 minutes ago, RDM said:

Randy/all,

Anyone else receive an email about registering the americanwx domain in China?   

Below is the text of the email I just received...   

 

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Best Regards

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Tel: +86-2161918696

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-----  End Text --------

 

 

That looks phishy.

28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

So, there has been a lot of speculation as to why the pattern for the beginning of March has taken such a turn since just last week. I was pretty much in agreement with much of the meteorological community that the beginning of March would be quite warm as the pattern would be breaking down. It appeared that the tropical forcing would move into unfavorable areas of the Pacific for E US winter weather, like towards the Maritime Continent.

However, that tropical forcing has become less and less of a factor in the pattern, as the amplitude of the wave looks quite low:

So, instead, there must be another pattern driver that's led to such a dramatic change in the NH waveguide. It looks like the culprit is an extratropical cyclone over the W Pacific near Japan. It will develop by the beginning of next week, and it looks to become a highly anomalous cyclone, reaching over 4 sigma below normal SLP:

This cyclone will induce an extension of the Pacific jet and anticyclonic wave breaking, which leads to the anomalous ridging over the EPO domain:

I don't think that this is a head fake, and there is the potential for a significant high-latitude blocking event. It hinges on the strength of the cyclone in the Pacific, but there is tremendous agreement between models and their ensembles, so I do think that it's a legitimate pattern driver. Something similar to this also happened with Nuri at the end of October 2014, which was also a highly anomalous N Pacific cyclone. Nuri had a tremendous impact on the pattern in November 2014 with regards to N Pacific blocking:

Therefore, I do believe that the first couple (or perhaps few?) weeks of March hold elevated potential for a significant late-winter event. Time will tell, but things should start to ramp up once heading into the start of the month.

Excellent post.  I always love to see you post in here, as the posts are info-filled and never random hype or downerism.

This is actually a nice change of pace.  We are usually left to try and analyze why a modelled good pattern suddenly degrades, so to see a bad pattern "degrade" is a treat.

Of course for my actual forum (the SE) this probably just means the difference between warm rain and cold rain, but I am rooting for the MA and especially the NW crew to cash in.

42 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Signal for strong CF changing to possible frozen.  I think 3 days ago this was a driving rainstorm with very strong slp headed through Illinois or Indiana.  Hopefully the ns continues the seasonal trend and drags the boundary even quicker across 

What is a CF?

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The Pacific has been largely favorable the past month though, with a mechanism for delivery of legit cold into our source region. Not really comparable to the 'pacific puke'  problem we had much of last winter, where the AO/NAO was favorable for extended periods but did little good because there was no cold to work with.

For me, that is one of the big positives from this year.  Assuming the pattern does break down after Valentines that would be a solid 5 - 6 weeks of "workable to good" Pacific, which feels like it might be more than the "workable to good" time than the previous five winters put together.  

On the negative side, it seems like the "trend" of the complete inability to have the Atlantic and Pacific to play nicely together for any extended time is continuing.  I'm not talking about having both sides be really good at the same time; that's rarer than finding a unicorn with a four leaf clover growing out of its butt.  I'm just talking about one side being good while the other is at least workable.  The present day default state is that if one side is good the other side is a raging dumpster fire and if the raging dumpster fire by chance goes out, it immediately pops up on the other side.