cbmclean

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

BamWx referencing 93-94 as an analog for late month and January now. We need an Elmo face planting into “sugar” reaction…

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No, but the elephant you’re talking about is there behind all of this. Ya it’s part of the reason 90% of the mid latitude land mass of the whole NHem is torched there. That’s not something you’d see in a more balanced period where “means” weren’t out of calibration. That’s something you see when what is “normal” is changing and the means used to make the blues and reds is constantly behind the curve. 
 

But my point was specific to the fact the pacific is 100% opposite of what we have had most of the last 8 years yet NAM is still torched. Yea what little cold there is is in the east but we need a colder profile than that to have a high % of snow. It’s 15 days away, not something to panic about yet, but it’s an ugly look is all. 

I certainly get why it is disturbing to see the eastern CONUS warm in that scenario, but isn't it expected for a strong -EPO to torch our source regions, with the huge ridge there and all?  Again I'm not saying that it is not an ugly look, but I would not necessarily have keyed on the warmth in NW Canada.

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I feel like he gets more depressing by the year...lol I mean on one hand I get it--there's an existential dread over a future where there's no cold anywhere (hence the arguing with the "excuses" even when no one mentions them) On the other hand...dang man. At some point we're gonna have to be at peace with whatever happens and just track the season in front of us.

Have you ever wondered what it would be like if "the elephant" was cooling instead?  Every period the 30 year averages go down...the model plots dominated by blue anomalies...cold snaps overperforming...torches constantly disappearing in mid range rug pulls...patterns that used to lead to cold rain suddenly starting to yield 1-3 events...MJO doing an endless circle in 7-8-1-2...every year dreading the Easter cold spell...

No I haven't thought about it either...

The temp graphics posted by PSU and Blizzard of 93 seemed incongruous so I went frame-by-frame on Tidbits.  It appears that the 18Z GEFS mean is verbatim calling for cool nights but warm days in Dayy 11-16 timeframe.  From about Christmas on, the 0Z/6Z timestamps are normal or cool but the 18Z timestamps are warm.  Not sure if that is a realistic detail to be picked out by an ensemble but it's interesting.

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

That track reminds me of the Dec 2010 storm

I was actually just in the MidAtlantic forum.  There is some discussion of potential similarity to the Boxing Day 2010 storm.  Funny how we have such good memories of that here but for them it was a nightmare.  So needless to say they are not overly enthused.

I knew this place would be rockin' after that run.  Now sit and wait for the despair when it turns into a 65° rain in 6 hours.

36 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

You know what they say about Nina's and beaches and the Carolinas? Well at least what that one dumbass says anyway 

Snow weenies in Wilson NC approve.  Of course I am scheduled in to be in NC mountains for Xmas.  In the very unlikely even that this were to ever happen, I might have to think about telling the wife to go ahead to her parents and me and the kids will stay home 

Man the discobs threads are serious, they are reporting their snow totals in hundredths of an inch.

edit: have to add the  to make sure no one takes me seriously.

5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

It's because of his concrete pouring, I think. 

In his defense, you can't pick a more reliably warm time in Winter than right around Christmas.  Smart move

3 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

Serious question. A while back I felt the Euro was super strong in long range forecasting. When it showed stuff I felt pretty confident. Now both GFS and Euro seem less capable in the long range. Is this perception or real? Is it because we want much more specifics? It may be that the patterns I remember were easier to predict and the chaos the last several years have caused less confidence. Am I wrong? Probably. Short range, models have really gotten much better.. I think. Get to 5+ days and it is so inconsistent you can't rely on what we see at all.. Again, maybe it is due to so much recent instability 

Many people have shared this observation.  Usually our focus is in forecasting snow, and in that context I suspect that the pattern is a significant driver to the feeling of reduced accuracy.  For 8 years give or take we have been in a sort of semi-permanent La Nina which tends to mean northern-stream dominant.  And as we know those are inherently more difficult for NWP to handle.  If we ever get a canonical Nino response again it's possible that guidance may go back to more familiar levels of stability.

There's also the fact that for those 8 years, models have been less stable with predicting snow because, well, the patterns have not been conducive to snow.  i can remember several instances where the models stably predicted TORCH from 16 days out, and lo it came to pass (Jan 2020 is an example that comes to mind)

Well there are definitely some interesting takes being throw around by the operationals at range.  I just have trouble convincing myself that the thermals will be recovered enough by then.  

7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Sicko fantasy storm of the year so far, lol. 

That would break me: a good snow at my house in Wilson while I am at my in-laws in Old Fort, NC.  Luckily for me, the GFS is just playing that cruel game the models do when they give you hope.

Just now, Daniel Boone said:

JB messed with that Run. 

He's hacking into the ECMWF, taking over BAMWx's twitter feed.  The man is out of control.

12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO in fantasy range....

@brooklynwx99 You mentioned the solstice window.  I'm sure this will lock in, right 

2 hours ago, dallen7908 said:

Obviously, you're kidding but although the phase speed is slowing due to interference from La Niña conditions the magic land of phase 7 is still expected to be reached in early January according to the NOAA CPC Weekly MJO Update that was posted here yesterday by Eskimo Joe and hinted at by WxUSA and with it chances of measurable snow.  Hopefully, we'll luck into something before then. 

As a side note, if one looks closely at the ensemble MJO forecasts, it seems like there are often one or two members that go backwards.  I remember reading somewhere that NWP models often not infrequently predict the MJO to go backward, but it almost never happens.  That goes into the "I wonder why they can't fix that" file.

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

Euro for the win. Lol

So you're going to make everyone go look,huh?

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Got to get the MJO out of Phase 6....hopefully by the end of the year....

The one that verifies will be the one that loops backwards through 4 -5 -6 again...

8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Lol Hey could ya blame me?  But nah not obsessively--but I have been hoping that one of these years it would finally start to cool off...and of course we're hoping that -PDO will finally relent! (I'm unclear on how the two are connected if someone could chime in on that. I just know that the warm pool has been a part of said pain in the butt).

The West Pac warm pool is in the equatorial region east of Indonesia.  It is potentially connected to the MJO.  Specifically, the expansion of the warm pool over the last decade or so is thought by some to be a driving force in the strong bias to the "bad" phases of the MJO (i.e. 4-6) observed in that time frame.  Meanwhile the PDO is a pattern of observed temp anomalies in the North Pacific.  As to how/if they are connected, my blanket assumption in weather is that everything is connected to everything.  In any event both conditions appear to be positively correlated to greater prevalence and intensity of southeast ridges and hence east coast snow weenie tears.

2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Thought that map was 2m temps for 25 December.  Crisis averted.  

So you don't want a high of 3.06 °F near DC and 2.98 °F near Baltimore?

4 hours ago, Ji said:

dont let PSU get you down too much. We have had decent winters following a moderate to strong Nino. Not great but fine. 2004-05 wasnt bad. 2010-11 wasnt bad. 87-88, 95-96 wasnt that bad....87-88 wasnt horrible.....2016-17 was a disaster 

I'm still not ready for a world where Ji is the one trying to keep everybody optimistic...

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

For most no.  But it’s worth saying that there comes a point, and we aren’t there yet, where it won’t even matter what the pattern is. It just won’t be cold enough unless we get increasingly anomalous setups. 

My homeland (eastern NC) has already passed that point I think.

1 minute ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1866182065227517973?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A

Did BAMWx decide they were going to see if it might be fun to be relentless cold-hypers instead of relentless warm-hypers?  I would have stuck with the warm hype; there's more future in it

2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Someone should do a study on this development. Seems like the earth might be warming. 

To clarify I fully agree with the assessment.  I just doubt that anyone who hasn't already been convinced is ever going to be.

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If you pull back and stop focusing on our locations specific snow chances the biggest issue I see is this…

We need cold anomalies to snow. Our coldest day of the year has an avg high near 40. But if you simply look at a 5 or 10 day mean temp anomaly for the whole northern hemisphere the warm expanse outnumbers cold by 2 and sometimes 3-1 across the mid latitudes. 
 

We got lucky recently that one of the small (globally speaking) pockets of cold did end up over us for a week, but how often are we going to win if we need cold and 2/3 of the whole hemisphere is warm at any given time?

Is this some sort of unexpected development?

38 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

A glimmer of hope for what? Wed/Thurs? Well I've learned to ignore supposed backend snow scenarios as they don't usually work here. But...here's a glimmer of hope for the bigger picture that was shared in the general thread 

Cool the pool! Cool the pool! 

Maestro, you're not obsessively monitoring the status of the West Pac warm pool, hoping against hope for any sign of its weakening from it's current "King Kong on a rampage through New York" strength, are you?