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cbmclean

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Posts posted by cbmclean

  1. 27 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

     

    This for whatever reason has been a consistent theme by the GFS the last week...its not unusual as we know to see big differences but its consistently been a torchy Op and cold ensemble on 90% plus of runs 

    Insert standard "Trust the warmest model" joke that's not really a joke.

    Normally I would ignore long range op compared to ens, but maybe the higher resolution of the op is allowing it to "see" the super persistent PNA more accurately.

    • Sad 1
  2. 1 minute ago, H2O said:

    I always debate changing mine but then I fear my posts would be completely ignored instead of the current 80% ignored

    You changing your picture would be like my dad getting a nose ring; it would undermine the very foundations of my reality.

    • Like 1
    • Haha 4
  3. 3 hours ago, yoda said:

    It's going to be that way for all the WC games from now on.  Expect at least 5 minutes of added time to the end of games... it's what FIFA wants

    I don't know anything about it one way or another, but I am curious why you believe that FIFA would want this?  They think its more exciting?

  4. 16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

    This is kinda nuts for a D13 ensemble mean for the -NAO. That Dec 6-11 period is an above-average early season snow threat window. 
    126005E7-C73F-45CD-8A83-E2EB7CD6DAEB.thumb.png.2d807d82b328952e037340ba50834b20.png

     

    Asking as someone trying to make a significant effort to understand: isn't that a nasty -PNA signal though?

  5. 14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

    The advertised looks on both the EPS and GEFS are acceptable at this range- the differences are probably related to the MJO wave progression, with the EPS moving it more quickly through phase 7 then dissipating it.

    Someone recently made the claim that the EPS has a bias towards killing MJO waves.  Is that a known thing?

  6. 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

    Ummm I don’t believe that. We maxed out at 93.6. There is not way RDU was almost 5 degrees hotter than here!

    Just picked up 0.05” from a quick but heavy shower. This was our first rain in 10 days.

    I just mentally deduct 4-5 degrees from their high on warm sunny days.  The gave full-on UHI in effect.

    • Like 1
  7. 2 hours ago, cptcatz said:

    It's an interesting conversation.  Your question of why would models be any good a predicting medium to long range cyclogenesis with accuracy could be answered with "why shouldn't they?"  These models are run on some of the largest supercomputers in the world using so many data points from satelites, balloons, airplanes, bouys, etc., and they still can't figure out what's happening in only a few days?  

    Yes.  And it took decades of patient effort and billions of dollars/euros to get that good.  Predicting weather is just inherently difficult.

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