It's Always Sunny

Lemanowitz had a good forecast last night if I recall haven't seen any update though.

27 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Sorry Pete B... But man, I rarely have any freaking clue what you are every looking at on some of your maps. Always seems to be off. 

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He’s got the coastal front look. His highest totals are just NW of where it sets up 

Bouchard is known to go against the grain which carries serious implications lol. I don't agree with him most of the time but I don't think that particular forecast for BOS is terrible.  He's had FAR worse.

Seems like I missed a lot here lol. I think what Bouchard has for BOS is reasonable. I'd be surprised if they got over 10" honestly.

1 minute ago, ROOSTA said:

Model dejur?

Every event is like a snowflake, which model is less wrong? In the end, toward the end all comes down to nowcast.

?

Pretty crazy to see what a ~50 mile difference in s/w location makes. Still too early to commit to either model at this point in my opinion for those in MA, especially people north of 495. People along and south of 495 I think are in a good spot regardless of which way this storm trends.

Appears BOX is rolling with a Euro-esque solution south of the pike and GFS-esque solution north of the pike. I'd consider that a pretty safe forecast.

Us waiting for the 12Z GFS: 

@CoastalWx couldn't the NAM have inflated totals due to non-hydrostatic approximation?

Just now, JC-CT said:

It's inexpensive too, comparatively. $7/mo at full board

Wow, that's really good! If I didn't have a weathermodels subscription already I'd get it myself. Well we'll be leaning heavily on you for sounding requests I guess, haha.

16 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I'm trying out pivotal for a month - it has pretty nice UI, disappointing that it doesn't have the 6/18z Euro but the soundings are awesome

I'm sure the subscription is worth the Euro soundings themselves. Wish weathermodels.com/WeatherBell subscriptions had those.

For weenies looking for a subscription service looks like Pivotal Weather is offering a 48-hour flash deal FYI.

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I would ultimately say this is far from settled... but I feel okay where I’m at right now 

Better than being north of 495 . My sister is supposed to be moving to W Raynham Thursday that may need to be put on hold haha. 

Sounds like there is too much dissection going on right now amongst the models for a storm that still hasn't even developed yet. Lots of dumpster diving here with models.

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

@jbenedet

Ok good part of me thought it could be Scott since he is the weenie of all weenies with 140 million posts lol.

Who is Pope lol

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

It looks decent...

Good look at 84 hours it's further north than GFS. Get popcorn ready for 18Z lol.

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Euro is still really good here 

For sure you're in a good spot either way it seems. Just hope that ECMWF doesn't keep trending south then you'll be smokin' cirrus like the rest of them.

Just now, Hoth said:

Purity rings for everyone!

I sadly know what that is thanks to my sister's obsession with them. I think I may leave now...

I love how the interpretation of "Jonas" is really showing everyone's age here lol.

12Z Euro is almost textbook Miller A. 

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Cautionary noted: one needs to consider climate change unfortunately...   The ambient Terran troposphere holds more water vapor at a given temperature than it did in 1930-1931.  Even at decimals ..this has a tendency to "synergistically" result in higher individual deposition extremes...but also, maintenance precipitation events are also routinely delivery more in recent modernity.   This is/was both modeled by climate prognostic efforts, and is also empirical/verifying. 

Having said that, that doesn't/won't/shouldn't be accountable in a particular anomaly at PHL, no .. .there could certainlyresult 13" of snow in a La Nina ... regardless of era.  But, the likeliness of it happening now given sufficient cold at/while other analog values, is greater due to increasing ambient moisture in situ to atmospheric events. 

There's a first time for everything 

2 minutes ago, SnowEMass said:

A hybrid can work

2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Definitely more A, baby comes right on up the coast

Yeah because if I recall a couple days ago it was looking more B like but now it appears to dip more into that Gulf moisture. Probably one of the reasons why QPF has gone up.

Is it just me or is the Dec 16/17 storm beginning to look more Miller A-esque? Almost a Miller A/B hybrid kind of.

Yeah looks like Euro has better phasing

Damaged goods. We cut and move on.