Indystorm

10 minutes ago, Calderon said:

Very likely about to get a confirmed TOR near Marshfield, MO. That cell is on a perfect trajectory for STL metro.


.

That concerns me, especially with the SPC comment that tornadic cells will increase in eastern MO

5 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

It has a long ways to go before it gets there. It can happen, though. Anyone remember the six-state supercell from 3/12/06?

Most definitely....was in Kentland IN at the time and followed that cell all day as it moved ne.

For what it is worth TWC has a Torcon of 7 for se MO into western KY  to PAH area

Cells are also starting to pop south of Kirksville MO.

Storms seem to be initiating now in the tor watch area west of Little Rock

7 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Some serious drought busting going on in Naperville

Good rain in Griffith as well.  Gotta get the moisture up here to prime overnight storms

1 minute ago, SmokeEater said:

Cover the whole event in here, down into AR also?

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
 

I would guess so since I don't see much in the central webpage section

First tor watch issued from 3-11 pm from Evansville  to near St. Louis to just  south of MEG.  High risk of strong tornadoes. 90/70 probs

Rather large section of clearing forming in  western MO with ACCAS appearing in streaks

Interesting helicity max sw of Chicago at 06z on the 18z HRRR

Whenever I see a lead trough in advance of a cold front with thermos and kinematics like this I get quite concerned, particularly for storms in winter.  Look out PAH area and be watchful farther north in iL and IN with an enhanced risk now up to Lafayette.

Yes, SPC has now brought the slight risk farther north due to the kinematics of this system.  Will be interested to see if things go moderate farther south in the next update.

I thought this event now has enough model strength going for it to stand alone and separate from the discussion of winter wx aspects to merit its own thread.  Go for it.

Helicity and dews are scary for this time of year.  Shades of Nov. 6, 2005 in Evansville?  Friday night could be very active with 10% tor in the enhanced area.....I will focus on Memphis to EVV area and am surprised that svr risk extends this far north to nw Indiana.

Act One of the musical "Oliver" includes the song "Where Is Love?"  I want to ask where is snow?

Yea!  Saw my first snow shower mixed with rain while at Oak Ridge Prairie park on the east side of Griffith a half hour ago this mid day Nov. 12......more to come I bet later today and tonight and over the weekend.

 TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR WESTERN  
PERRY COUNTY...  
          
AT 918 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS  
LOCATED NEAR WOMAC, OR 11 MILES WEST OF PERRYVILLE, MOVING NORTHEAST  
AT 50 MPH.  
  
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY   
         BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES   
         WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,   
         BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION   
         IS POSSIBLE.  
  
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  PERRYVILLE AROUND 930 PM CDT.  
  
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
LITHIUM AND SILVER LAKE.  

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO  
923 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021  
  
ILC157-250300-  
/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0034.000000T0000Z-211025T0300Z/  
RANDOLPH IL-  
923 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021  
   
..TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR BREMEN!  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR  
SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY...  
      
AT 922 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS LOCATED  
OVER BREMEN, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
  
TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR BREMEN! THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS   
SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. MASSIVE DAMAGE WAS   
         REPORTED IN ST. MARY.  
  
IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY   
         BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES   
         WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,   
         BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION   
         IS POSSIBLE.  
  
THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  
SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...  
NEW PALESTINE.  

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO  
915 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021  
   
..TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR CHESTER!  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 914 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS  
  OBSERVED OVER CHESTER, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
  
  TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR CHESTER!. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS   
SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
  HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
  IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS   
           MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE   
           HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,   
           BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE   
           DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.  
  
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  BREMEN AROUND 925 PM CDT.  

KFVS tv Cape Girardeau has live coverage

E NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 908 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED OVER ST. MARY, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
  IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS   
           MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE   
           HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,   
           BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE   
           DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.  
  
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  CHESTER AROUND 915 PM CDT.  
  BREMEN AROUND 925 PM CDT

ERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO  
856 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021  
  
MOC123-187-250215-  
/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0030.000000T0000Z-211025T0215Z/  
MADISON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-  
856 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN  
MADISON AND SOUTHEASTERN ST. FRANCOIS COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN  
MISSOURI...  
          
AT 855 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS  
LOCATED NEAR JUNCTION CITY, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
  
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY   
         BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES   
         WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,   
         BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION   
         IS POSSIBLE.  
  
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  FREDERICKTOWN, JUNCTION CITY AND COBALT AROUND 900 PM CDT.  
  

New tor watch issued for east central and southern IL and se Mo till 1 a.m.

Columbia Missouri could soon be under the gun with confirmed tornado to the west of them.  Stay safe.

Those cells north of US 36 have been rather consistent with rotation and occasional tornado touchdowns this afternoon.