Indystorm

Tor watch just issued till 0100Z.  Storms starting to form now around Peoria and Lincoln areas moving n/ne.  Will they break the cap?

10 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

LaSalle still sounding good to everyone?

Yes...flat enough to chase and positioned in a good area if radar returns require you to move in any direction.  Watch for Illinois river crossings however.

Dews have jumped to the low 60's in central IL with sporadic clearing.  New SPC meso discussion looks interesting. Watch that WF and triple point.

On 4/8/2022 at 1:41 PM, Hoosier said:

Been watching that timeframe.  It has potential as you outlined.  I feel like that Sunday-Monday system is a factor in this as well.  Not that it will really produce severe wx in the sub, but it helps to get the process of moisture return underway into the region.

Anything that primes the pump before a possible svr wx scenario is concerning to me.  And as I have mentioned before since the  April 20, 2004 Utica Illinois tornado warm fronts draping the area raise my suspicion.

Good observation about Lamoni storms.....

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA  
523 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES  HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN LUCAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...  
  EASTERN DECATUR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...  
  NORTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...  
  SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...  
  
* UNTIL 600 PM CST.  
      
* AT 522 PM CST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF CORYDON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45  
  MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
  IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS   
           MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE   
           HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,   
           BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE   
           DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  CHARITON.  

Tor watch now issued for north central MO as well until 9 p.m.  Kinematics over thermo today.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA  
505 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES  HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA...  
  WESTERN JASPER COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA...  
  NORTH CENTRAL WARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...  
  
* UNTIL 545 PM CST.  
  
* AT 505 PM CST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED OVER NORWALK, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
  IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS   
           MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE   
           HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,   
           BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE   
           DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.  
  
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  DES MOINES INT'L AIRPORT AROUND 510 PM CST.  
  SOUTHRIDGE MALL, PRINCIPAL PARK AND IOWA EVENTS CENTER AROUND 515   
  PM CST.  
  DES MOINES, PLEASANT HILL, CARLISLE AND IOWA STATE FAIRGROUNDS   
  AROUND 520 PM CST.  
  PRAIRIE MEADOWS AND ADVENTURELAND AMUSEMENT PARK 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA  
451 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022  
  
IAC049-121-153-181-052315-  
/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220305T2315Z/  
POLK IA-MADISON IA-DALLAS IA-WARREN IA-  
451 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CST FOR  
SOUTHWESTERN POLK...NORTHEASTERN MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN DALLAS AND  
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES...  
      
AT 451 PM CST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS  
LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF AVENUE OF THE SAINTS EVENT CENTER, OR 8  
MILES EAST OF WINTERSET, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. DAMAGE HAS BEEN   
         REPORTED NEAR THE WINTERSET AREA AND JUST SOUTH.  
  
IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY   
         BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES   
         WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,   
         BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION   
         IS POSSIBLE.  
  
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
DES MOINES, WEST DES MOINES, INDIANOLA, NORWALK, PLEASANT HILL,  
WINDSOR HEIGHTS, CARLISLE, SAYLORVILLE, SOUTHRIDGE MALL, IOWA STATE  
FAIRGROUNDS, PRINCIPAL PARK, DES MOINES INT'L AIRPORT, DRAKE STADIUM  
AND KNAPP CENTER, IOWA EVENTS CENTER, HARTFORD, MARTENSDALE, CUMMING,  
PATTERSON, BEVINGTON AND SPRING HILL.  
  

Southern metro Des Moines looks under the gun if the large tor is still on the ground.  Will a tornado emergency be declared?

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA  
439 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022  
  
IAC049-121-153-181-052315-  
/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220305T2315Z/  
POLK IA-MADISON IA-DALLAS IA-WARREN IA-  
439 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CST FOR  
SOUTHWESTERN POLK...NORTHEASTERN MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN DALLAS AND  
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES...  
          
AT 439 PM CST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS  
LOCATED OVER WINTERSET, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
  
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY   
         BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES   
         WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,   
         BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION   
         IS POSSIBLE.  
  
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
DES MOINES, WEST DES MOINES, INDIANOLA, NORWALK, PLEASANT HILL,  
WINTERSET, WINDSOR HEIGHTS, CARLISLE, SAYLORVILLE, SOUTHRIDGE MALL,  
IOWA STATE FAIRGROUNDS, PRINCIPAL PARK, DES MOINES INT'L AIRPORT,  
DRAKE STADIUM AND KNAPP CENTER, IOWA EVENTS CE

IAC001-121-052300-  
/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220305T2300Z/  
MADISON IA-ADAIR IA-  
421 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST FOR MADISON  
AND SOUTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTIES...  
      
AT 421 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF  
GREEN VALLEY LAKE, OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF CRESTON, MOVING NORTHEAST  
AT 40 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND TWO INCH HAIL.  
  
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE   
         TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS   
         LIKELY.  
  
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
WINTERSET, EAST PERU, MACKSBURG AND WINTERSET-MADISON COUNTY AIRPORT.  
  

Some low 60 dews showing up in sw and south central IA.  If accurate that surprised me.   Winterset now under threat with confirmed tor heading their  way.  Watch those covered bridges.

There has also now been a confirmed tor near Corning in sw IA. That makes two confirmed.  Was not really expecting tors out of this set up but will have to watch.  Increasing tor threat over south central IA per recent meso discussion.

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

If something resembling the stronger models verifies, it's going to result in an outsized impact for whatever amount of ice that occurs.  Just a tenth or two of ice with 40+ mph gusts would act more like a quarter to half inch would in light winds.

Well, unfortunately it is Feb, climo ice time around our neck of the woods.

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

If something resembling the stronger models verifies, it's going to result in an outsized impact for whatever amount of ice that occurs.  Just a tenth or two of ice with 40+ mph gusts would act more like a quarter to half inch would in light winds.

And FYI we have a number of confirmed tornadoes sw of Birmingham AL on the warm side of this system.

Guess i'll go get groceries Monday before word of this gets out to the public and the mad rush begins.  Great trends and consistencies now this close to the event which may indeed be historic in parts of the Midwest.

I think Chicago's biggest total was the late Jan. 67 storm at 23 inches,  Many of you know I am really a svr wx guy but this is now getting interesting.

47 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Lady in front of me managed to lose control of her 4wd Mercedes SUV on a completely straight road. Changed lanes and tried to slow down, but she ended up slamming into me anyway. She managed to damage only the already dinged parts of my beater so this was probably about the most convenient car crash possible. 

Glad you're ok.  A few years ago in Indpls I slid on ice into 3 stopped cars that had already bumped into each other.  No injuries but a $4000 insurance repair bill for my right front headlight area.

It may have taken a clipper system and LES but this is the genuine article here in the Calumet region.

28 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Although it's fun tracking winter storms here, the higher population centers and therefore the regions with the most posters are once again in the crosshairs. Meanwhile, down here in FWA land, we will once again get fringed.

Snow totals for the season:

Nov. 0.7"

Dec. 0.8"

Forecast snowfall for 1/2: Around 0.5"

Maybe Ohio will adopt us.

There's always hope!

First tor warning of today's episode back in Arkansas

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  
246 PM CST WED DEC 29 2021  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHERN DESHA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...  
  NORTHEASTERN DREW COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...  
  SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...  
  SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...  
  
* UNTIL 330 PM CST.  
      
* AT 245 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MILLS, OR 10 MILES WEST OF DUMAS,  
  MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  DUMAS...                          MITCHELLVILLE...  
  WATSON...                         WINCHESTER...  
  YANCOPIN...                       OMEGA...  
  MILLS...                          MERRISACH LAKE...  
  TRUSTEN HOLDER WMA...             ARKANSAS POST...  
  GARRETT BRIDGE...                 PENDLETON...  
  GOURD...                          FLORENCE...  
  TYRO...                           ROSE HILL...  
  REEDVILLE...                      MORGAN POINT RECREATION AREA...  
  YUKON...                          PICKENS IN DESHA COUNTY...  
  

Watch coming shortly for northern Alabama per SPC meso.  I expect tornado watch.

Increasing cloud breaks and solar insolation will only up the ante for svr wx today in the affected areas.

The snow looks so fresh and clean here in Griffith as it falls at a nice steady pace.  But I will also be looking for svr wx concerns down south later this week.

Surface low now down to 980 mb in southern MN