Indystorm

10% hatched tor for Chi town and westward.  Jeez.

Helicity up to 550 in northern IL.  Can we recover?  LOT in 3 pm update warning of an increasing risk of tornadoes from I-80 north to WI line.

Northern extent of storms the next few days as always will depend on the strength and expansion of the hot dome to get the ridge runners.

Recent SPC meso noting there could be increased storm development north pf the MCV in northeastern Illinois.

I'll take the rain but keep the wind and hail south of me....but always concerned about storms near the comma head of the line.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL  
441 PM CDT THU APR 20 2023  
  
ILC011-155-202215-  
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-230420T2215Z/  
PUTNAM IL-BUREAU IL-  
441 PM CDT THU APR 20 2023  
  
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT  
FOR NORTHERN PUTNAM AND BUREAU COUNTIES...  
  
AT 440 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BUREAU  COUNTY  
FAIRGROUNDS, OR OVER PRINCETON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL   
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXPECT   
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO   
         MOBILE HOMES, ROOFS, AND OUTBUILDINGS.  
  
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
PRINCETON, HENNEPIN, SPRING VALLEY, DEPUE, GRANVILLE, LADD, WYANET,  
SHEFFIELD, TISKILWA, LA MOILLE, DALZELL, BUDA, BUREAU JUNCTION, MARK,  
OHIO, CHERRY, MALDEN, MANLIUS, SEATONVILLE AND STANDARD.  
  

Confirmed tor 12 miles east of Kewanee Illinois moving east.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL  
419 PM CDT THU APR 20 2023  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  
  SOUTHWESTERN BUREAU COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 445 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 418 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED NEAR KEWANEE, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
  NEPONSET AROUND 425 PM CDT.  
  BUDA AROUND 435 PM CDT.  
  
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
PROVIDENCE AND WYANET.  
  

If this rotation continues Peoria area could be under the gun in the near future. New SPC meso discussion acknowledges the discreteness and the risk of tornado formation. 200 m2/s2 helicity in the vicinity of the warned cells.

So far at least the storm cells are maintaining discreteness rather than forming a solid line in western IL.

Storms at present along MS river area with clearing to the east.  Upper 50 dews in Chicago metro with 60+ dews farther west.  Gonna get volatile.

80% chance tor watch coming for southern WI and northern IL per SPC.

  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN FULTON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  WEST CENTRAL TAZEWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  SOUTHWESTERN PEORIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 800 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 732 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED OVER ST. DAVID, OR NEAR CANTON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45  
  MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. AT 7:25 PM, A TORNADO   
           WAS REPORTED NORTHWEST OF LEWISTOWN!  
  
  IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS   
           MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE   
           HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,   
           BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE   
           DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.  
  
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  GLASFORD AROUND 750 PM CDT.  

Storm ne of Quincy and west of Peoria should be moving into an area of lower LCL readings before too long

Storm sw of Hannibal MO developing a hook

Now tor warned

I do think given the storm motion of those svr cells over Missouri that more of Illinois should have been included in the tornado watch.  I  recognize T/Td spread is rather high but I think this will lessen as moisture continues to flow north.

Am certainly aware of capping EML issues for Tuesday but ever since the Utica IL F3 on April 20, 2004 I am always very leery of warm fronts in the spring, particularly when other parameters are looking like a loaded gun.

Hook forming on huge cell east of Peoria per WGN radar

Large confirmed tor sw of Peoria near Canton

I am expecting multiple PDS tor watches to be issued today in the affected areas. This system is just so potent with parameters and the clearing skies only make things more unstable.

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

I am absolutely getting concerned about Chicago Metro on this one. Models have supercells all around and some have them moving into the suburbs around 22-02z.

Since I live in Griffith I will be monitoring this board and warnings all day Friday and am somewhat nervous hearing your concern  Fortunately I live in a basement apartment.

Looks ominous for a large area and if storms continue to occur with this frequency that we have currently seen and with higher amplitude our Midwest may be in for quite a svr wx season this spring.

Interesting observations.  Why do I think that our Midwest tornado season this year is going to be much more active than usual?  It is because we are coming out of La Nina which tends to be more favorable, Illinois has had tors on Jan. 3 and Feb. 27 and I had a strong t storm IMBY here at Griffith on Jan. 3. A bit unusual to say the least.

Gee, the tor watch goes as far ne as Champaign and Danville Illinois.  Certainly did not expect that today.