Indystorm

As an interested layman, this recent discussion is reminding me that there is more to forecasting than model hugging, like synoptics.

Reuters reports that Henry Margusity says that there could be up to 300 tornadoes the next two weeks from OK to Ohio. With this pattern he may not be exaggerating.

Even without looking at any parameter other than today's 18z GFS precip maps for 120, 126, and 130 hrs. I would be worried. They create extensive precip blotchiness from WI down to ne TX and then form a major squall line. Geesh!

The thing that strikes me at this distance out is the track of the lows farther nw than we have seen with our most recent svr outbreaks, across IA and WI, leading to a larger geographical extent of the warm sector.