Indystorm

The line in central IL seems to be breaking up into somewhat more quasi discrete cells as it moves se into an area of 450 m2/s2 helicity.  Needs to be watched even though bulk shear is higher to the north.

Helicity has increased significantly over eastern IA from what it was earlier this evening, probably accounting for the sig tor values up to 3 in the area.  We'll see if storms weaken as they head east.

Bulk shear is increasing across most of IA with ML  CAPE around 2000 ahead of that tor producing cell as it moves e/se.  Helicity, however, is higher to the nw of the cell.

Confirmed tor on the ground nw of Mason City at present time of 3:45 CDT.

On 6/5/2018 at 8:41 PM, andyhb said:

Well that red colour looks nice.

Unfortunately the severe season still does not.

Have always appreciated your insights, knowledge, and cautions over the years and extend my best congratulations.

Baseball size hail tor warned cell west of Poplar Bluff Mo just before 5 p.m. CDT.

And here at Fortville I managed to miss the svr warned cell issued for Hancock County earlier this afternoon.  Will see what any stray cells coming in from IL may hold yet today.

15 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

It's been a very strange stretch of weather from March through now.  Spring snows, and now this weird stagnant/constipated split flow BS.  Hopefully June makes up for it by featuring May flow over June instability.  That could be fun.

This.   We need some 990mb systems to augment that low level jet which we have had a dearth of this spring here in the Midwest.

Gee, all the MCS's make me think that this is mid July.  Whatever happened to spring storm season?

Yes, it is usually the NAM that tends to go overboard on CAPE values on occasion.  Your posted map surprises me.

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

The 18z ILX sounding had a cap around 850 mb

I wonder if there will be enough insolation or forcing to break the cap later this evening.  My cousin in Highland just told me she had a brief shower so I looked at radar. Grandkids have practices and baseball games scheduled for later this evening in the area.    Meso discussion now out for ne IL and Chi town with svr watch possible.

Well, what do you know>  ERTAF puts up a map for week 2 outlook graphic right in the heart of tornado alley from TX north to Kansas.  First time they've felt confident enough to post a map in awhile.

Had not read about the volcano.  I wondered what might have caused the intense Greenland block.  Only read about stratospheric warming.

Well, a year without a spring might be better than 1816 and Mt. Tambora volcano causing the year without a summer.  But who  knows what might yet happen in May and June.

The 4/10 EURO is somewhat surprisingly looking better with svr prospects from eastern Nebraska southward for Friday.  Will this portend better chances for Sat. into IL and IN?  Stay tuned.  Some Indpls TV mets are now mentioning the possibility of svr storms for Saturday and saying the situation must be watched.

Sunday's 12Z GFS much more sensible with the strength of the low pressure for this coming Friday.  Not the extremes we have been seeing and puts more of IL and IN in realistic play.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
732 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2018  
  
LAC031-081-070100-  
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0044.000000T0000Z-180407T0100Z/  
DE SOTO LA-RED RIVER LA-  
732 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2018  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR EAST  
CENTRAL DE SOTO AND CENTRAL RED RIVER PARISHES...  
          
AT 732 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF  
COUSHATTA, OR 13 MILES EAST OF MANSFIELD, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.   
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.   
  
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE   
         TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS   
         LIKELY.   
  
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
COUSHATTA, EDGEFIELD, GRAND BAYOU AND ARMISTEAD.   
  

Baseball size hail approaching Shreveport.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
554 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2018  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHERN MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...  
  CENTRAL WEBSTER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
  NORTHERN DE SOTO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
  CADDO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
  BOSSIER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
  EASTERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
  NORTHEASTERN HARRISON COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 645 PM CDT  
  
* AT 554 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
  EXTENDING FROM PLAIN DEALING TO BELCHER TO NEAR KARNACK, MOVING  
  SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
  THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS.   
  
  HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.   
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.   
  
  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED.   
           EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS,   
           SIDING, AND VEHICLES.   
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  SHREVEPORT, BOSSIER CITY, VIVIAN, HAUGHTON, GREENWOOD, BLANCHARD,  
  BENTON, PLAIN DEALING, COTTON VALLEY, OIL CITY, DOYLINE,  

That is a monster tor and tennis ball size warned cell north of Dallas at present.

First tornado warning of this 4/6/18 episode

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
352 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2018  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHWESTERN BOWIE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
  NORTH CENTRAL MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
  NORTHEASTERN TITUS COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
  SOUTHEASTERN RED RIVER COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 430 PM CDT  
      
* AT 352 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED NEAR WILKERSON, OR NEAR BOXELDER, MOVING EAST AT 30  
  MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.   
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.   
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.   
  
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
  DALBY SPRINGS AROUND 410 PM CDT.   

Well, for the first time in seemingly ages my IND NWS 8-10 day forecast this morning is calling for ABOVE normal temps and precip.  Pattern change?

The daffodils are blooming in my front lawn.  Such is the difference in climo and geography from Michigan to Indianapolis.  Plus I also have a new pond in part of the yard from all the recent rain and snow melt.

And I admit I have concern for the Gadsden area later this evening as that monster cell to their nw moves se along the warm front boundary.

3 minutes ago, pbrussell said:

Starting to get some isolation in the cluster which concerns me

As if we need training west to east tornadic supercells with good inflow from the south.