Indystorm

SPC does not anticipate a new watch due to boundary layer cooling in the warm sector but things could be rough for another hour or two.

I think we have a member from Mt. Zion IL....which will be in danger if that new circulation moves directly ne.

Taylorville 11,500      Decatur 72,000

Just now, Stebo said:

Incredible that this all going up in an environment in the mid 50s for temp and dews.

Score one for kinematics and a 988 mb surface low

And ML CAPE and both low and mid level helicity values continue to be quite favorable as northward moving storms slowly move east across IL.  This is gonna last awhile.

Good shear and helicity in the tor warned area up the Illinois river.  I would be concerned a bit farther south ne of St. Louis up the I-70 corridor where surface cape is higher as storms that form along the MS river gradually move into that part of Illinois as we progress through the evening.

Just broke into sunshine here with a patch of clearing and a beautiful full rainbow to my ne.  Gonna be watching the svr storms to my west this afternoon and evening as they approach.

I am always concerned about low topped warm front tornadoes since Utica Illinois in April 2004.  ACCAS across eastern MO shows instability flowing northward so I'll be watching what happens.  I'm expecting a tornado watch to be issued per that meso.

80 mph straight line winds heading for Fort Smith as line approaches.

Still on ground four miles west of West Siloam springs moving ne.

Siloam springs area could be at risk shortly, particularly the se vicinity.....17,000 pop

SPC expected tornado activity might ramp up during the overnight hours as the strong jet max roars into the area.  Seems to be the case.

Large tornado at Cherokee Landing state park moving ne.

Confirmed dangerous tornado presently on the ground in eastern OK.

Nice couplet in tor warned storm ne of McAlester OK at present with strong low level rotation.

Interesting that we have multiple lines of storms with this system as well as pre frontal WAA convection.

 Behind early morning thunderstorms, some potential exists for
   renewed convection Saturday afternoon across eastern MO into
   southern/central IL as a mid-level dry slot and related cold
   temperatures aloft overspread this region. Forecast effective bulk
   shear of 40-50+ kt will easily support supercells, although limited
   low-level moisture will probably tend to keep instability weak, with
   MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Isolated large hail and damaging winds
   should be the primary threats, but a tornado or two may also occur
   with the strong low-level shear present. If confidence increases in
   the placement and coverage of thunderstorms across this region, a
   Slight risk may need to be considered in a later update.    From SPC 

Marginal risk presently issued for southern and central IN & IL for Sat,  Much will depend on what happens to the sw on Friday I presume., along with how much clearing and insolation we might get after a.m. rain moves east on Sat.   Lower Wabash valley and western KY could have a chance for some tors with good helicity come Sat evening if things come together properly.

On 11/23/2018 at 4:34 PM, Jackstraw said:

GFS has a bit of a severe look out in fantasy land around the 1st - 2nd.  All I have to look at right now lol.

WTHR met Angela talking about possible svr for central IN on Sat with temp pushing 60.  What a rollercoaster if that occurs.

Had a few snow showers this afternoon in Indpls, but that was enough to wet the pavement.  Trucks were scheduled to go out at 11 p.m. this Monday night but had to go out early to treat the roads since temps fell to 30-32 degrees and there were 90 vehicle crashes in Indy metro in a two hour period.  In my home in the Calumet region they would pre treat roads when a storm was coming.  DPW knew we would get some backlash from this system down here so I always wonder why they don't perform a similar pre treatment down my way.  Oh, well.  Got a nice dusting on grass and rooftops here.    New update.  Now it's 150 crashes in four hours time period.

Good to read about that lightning report ne of Iowa City.  Convection is what I've been waiting for in this storm.  Gonna be a fun evening and night to watch what unfolds.  Stay safe in affected areas.

Well, I'm back home from the holiday period up in NW IN Calumet region and going to be monitoring all you enthusiastic folk getting a whopping upcoming early season snowstorm.  Going to be mainly rain with a push to sixty degrees Sunday here in Indy metro.  May the moisture help all of you out with this storm.

About a quarter inch of ice this morning here at Fortville.  Driveway was blocked by rather large tree limb so I waited till midmorning when ice was off drive to go out and move it to the side before going to work.  Schools cancelled in the area.  Fortunately power stayed on locally.  Was not really expecting an ice storm this early in season..  I think of them in Feb/March.  54,000 was the highest number of outages I saw reported in central and se IN today.

WTHR channel 13 has been showing blue over much of the area but the met said her reports coming in were more of sleet and FZRN. Be careful on the drive home weathernerd.

I am hearing tv met reports of up to .2 inch of ice already in spots along the Ohio River Valley in IN/KY.  Sleet and some freezing rain here now.