IND NWS being cautious this evening and saying snow showers and possible mix.  Indy tv mets this evening saying mix of everything and waiting for new model input.

I'll believe it when I see it.  Have not seen snow here yet this season although some reported north of Indy.  Not looking for ice at all this season as I had $3000 worth of damage to my car from sliding on ice into a previous 3 car wreck on Jan. 24th of this year.  Models do look interesting though. DPW was very slow to respond to the ice in that Jan. episode and blamed a bad forecast as the reason.

It is concerning that we have had several confirmed tornadoes this early in the episode as well as the event coming at night.

With 450 or better helicity in the area and dews now advancing rapidly northward this could be a very interesting evening and night.

First tornado warning of the event now for the Toledo Bend area on the Texas/Louisiana border.  Incoming tor watch likely for areas from east of Shreveport ne to Memphis and northern MS.

As of Sat, morning SPC has brought the slight risk farther north into IL and the bottom quarter of IN based on model trends even though the enhanced is still farther south.  Will have to see how this low develops as things progress.

Getting a little concerned for Indiana for midday election day Tuesday from looking at 18z GFS parameters as well.  Of course things will change but bears watching.

No photos to show, but I spent last week in the Branson, Missouri area and color was wonderful down I-44 and south into Arkansas at Mt. Magazine State park.  Best I've seen during several fall trips to the Ozarks.  My timing was right this year.

Glad things weren't any worse.  All eyes are on Michael.

Seems like we just don't have the necessary ingredients to come together in the right fashion with this system to produce svr weather. Mid levels too warm...etc.

Good t storm with heavy rain here in Indpls area at 1:15 p.m. EDT.  Wondering about this afternoon for svr and heavy rain from me n/nw and moisture next week from possible tropical system from Gulf.

There's a lot of sheet lightning seen from the WNDU tv skycam atop Blue Chip casino as it looks out over Lake Michigan from Michigan City.

Tor warning near Midland MI.

SPC meso out now for possible svr storm watch from central IN ne to se MI/  nw OH area.  But as Hoosier mentioned veered winds could mitigate tor threat.

Severe Weather reports with Tuesday storms

Between 4 and 5PM CDT the Following reports were received…

Sycamore (Kane Co)…60 mph winds
Roscoe (Winnebago Co)…trees down
Sublette…Lee Co…60 mph winds
Rochelle…Lee Co…Tree damage
Oregon and Polo…tree damage
Huntley, Algonquin, and Lake-In-The-Hills…Multiple trees and wires down
North of Huntley…70 mph winds     according to WGN

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Dews have mixed out quite a bit in northeast IL.

That may be your saving grace.  Dews still 70 for much of central and northern IN.

Chicago city proper now under a warning for the next hour of 70 mph wind gusts.

Am becoming a bit concerned regarding cells ahead of the main line around east central IL as they move into IN.  East central IN especially has good shear and helicity values of 200/250 m2/s2  at present.  And the LLJ was forecast to increase this evening.

Lots of partial clearing across most of IL.  SPC meso out for possible watch for eastern IA and nw IL.  Hopefully this line is fast moving.  Cedar Rapids has already had flooding issues. Cells beginning to appear in front of the line as well with a tor warning issued for north of Burlington.

It's all about speed with that IN MCS getting out of the way for this afternoon and evening and how much clearing can take place.  If we can get those better mid lapse rates moving east that would help as well.  Could be an interesting evening across IL and In into Ohio.

Wouldn't it be ironic if the fall season gets fairly active given our lackluster spring?  The strength of those tornadoes in Ottawa Canada this weekend really surprised me for that location and time of year.

Glad things are fixed with the forum and we're back online.  Was starting to get withdrawal symptoms.  Happy autumnal equinox to every one.

Yep, the heaviest rain has definitely been south and sw IN closer to the Ohio River on a St Louis to Louisville axis.  My friend who is worried about his basement and pump is pleased.

44 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Tornado warning in southern IN.

Interesting since yesterdays IND HWO mentioned a tornado chance with this system but SPC didn't give too much stock in the idea.  Today however they admit the possibility. Watch the WF.

Rain rates of 4 inches an hour reported in Clay and Richland counties in se  Illinois per flood warning.  Evacuations underway in Mt. Vernon IL area as well.